Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday 7/6/18 Flash Flood/Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..The heat wave across the region will end today as a cold front will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a marginal risk for severe weather across much of Southern New England..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from Friday Morning through Friday Afternoon for all of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island except for the islands for thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall in localized areas resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will occur today to monitor severe weather and flash flood potential. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible today..
The heat wave will come to an end on Friday as a cold front will traverse Southern New England. Ahead of the front showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe and with heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding will be possible across much of the region. The headlines continue to cover the situation well. Key factors in determining the severe weather potential include the following:
1.) The cold front will traverse Western New England mid to late morning and Eastern New England, early through late afternoon. This timing is a bit early than peak heating. This will likely limit any widespread pockets of severe weather but high dewpoints and some instability with forcing from the front may still allow a few pockets of severe weather to develop and urban and poor drainage flash flooding is a concern given the setup.
2.) Amount of cloud cover and any ongoing convection and how it affects heating and destabilization. Satellite imagery as of 845 AM shows some breaks in the clouds over central and eastern New England which may allow for enough instability for isolated severe weather and also prime the potential urban and poor drainage flash flood risk.
3.) Amount of wind shear and its position in relation to the front. Wind shear profiles look marginally sufficient for strong to damaging wind gusts given high dewpoints allowing storms to be water logged and allowing for wet microbursts. The wind damage potential could increase slightly if the stronger wind shear profiles end up being aligned along or ahead of the cold front.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will occur today to monitor severe weather and flash flood potential. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible today. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s severe weather/flash flood potential. A shortened coordination message will be posted if time allows and Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are initiated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all…
..The heat wave across the region will end today as a cold front will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a marginal risk for severe weather across much of Southern New England..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from Friday Morning through Friday Afternoon for all of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island except for the islands for thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall in localized areas resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will occur today to monitor severe weather and flash flood potential. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible today..
The heat wave will come to an end on Friday as a cold front will traverse Southern New England. Ahead of the front showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe and with heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding will be possible across much of the region. The headlines continue to cover the situation well. Key factors in determining the severe weather potential include the following:
1.) The cold front will traverse Western New England mid to late morning and Eastern New England, early through late afternoon. This timing is a bit early than peak heating. This will likely limit any widespread pockets of severe weather but high dewpoints and some instability with forcing from the front may still allow a few pockets of severe weather to develop and urban and poor drainage flash flooding is a concern given the setup.
2.) Amount of cloud cover and any ongoing convection and how it affects heating and destabilization. Satellite imagery as of 845 AM shows some breaks in the clouds over central and eastern New England which may allow for enough instability for isolated severe weather and also prime the potential urban and poor drainage flash flood risk.
3.) Amount of wind shear and its position in relation to the front. Wind shear profiles look marginally sufficient for strong to damaging wind gusts given high dewpoints allowing storms to be water logged and allowing for wet microbursts. The wind damage potential could increase slightly if the stronger wind shear profiles end up being aligned along or ahead of the cold front.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will occur today to monitor severe weather and flash flood potential. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible today. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s severe weather/flash flood potential. A shortened coordination message will be posted if time allows and Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are initiated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box