Storm Coordination Message #2 – Damaging Wind/Heavy Rainfall/Minor Coastal Flooding Potential Thursday Night 12/24/20-Friday PM 12/25/20
Hello to all…
..Powerful storm system will affect the region Christmas Eve night into Christmas Day Afternoon with damaging winds a significant potential threat along with heavy rainfall causing urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly river and stream flooding and the potential for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Friday Morning in south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island. There is even the potential for a fine line of strong to severe thunderstorms during the overnight hours Christmas Eve Night into Christmas Morning..
..A High Wind Watch remains in effect for all of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts and has been expanded to include Tolland and Windham Counties Connecticut and Southern Worcester County Massachusetts from Thursday Evening to Friday Afternoon for sustained winds of 20-35 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH and isolated to scattered higher wind gusts..
..These winds will have the potential to produce scattered to numerous pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages in this region. Additional watches or advisories may be required in future updates..
..Heavy rainfall with widespread amounts of 1-2″ of rain with isolated pockets or a band of 2-3″ rainfall is possible across Southern New England. This rainfall combined with snow melt may produce urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly river and stream flooding in portions of Southern New England..
..Minor coastal flooding could occur at the time of high tide Friday Morning in south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and will be contingent on the maximum wind speeds coinciding with that high tide cycle and will be monitored..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be needed Christmas Eve night through Christmas Afternoon for the damaging wind potential along with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and minor coastal flooding in Southeast coastal New England. ARES/RACES groups should monitor this situation and seek advice from local leadership as we get closer to impacts from this storm system especially due to the damaging wind potential..
A powerful storm system will move its way through Southern New England late Christmas Eve night through Christmas Afternoon. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors remain as follows:
1.) The wind impacts could be on the high-end and rival some of the past high impact wind events of the last 3 years and will bear close watching given the Christmas holiday. High Wind Watches were expanded to include Southern Worcester County Massachusetts and Tolland and Windham Counties of Connecticut and additional Wind headlines could be required in future updates. While southerly wind events typically have a temperature inversion that keeps the strongest winds aloft, this storm event may allow the inversion to be broken between the heavy rainfall and any thunderstorms potentially allowing the strongest winds to reach the surface. In addition, winds at the upper levels of the atmosphere will be so powerful that even with 50-60% of those winds reaching the surface, winds of high wind warning levels and potentially high-end high wind warning level winds would be possible.
2.) There is also a high potential for heavy rainfall and flooding and will bear close watching with this storm event especially if 2-3″ of rainfall is more widespread across the area coupled with rapid snowmelt.
3.) Minor coastal flooding along South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island will need to be monitored especially if the strongest winds occur near the time of high tide.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will be needed Christmas Eve night through Christmas Afternoon for the damaging wind potential along with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and minor coastal flooding in Southeast coastal New England. ARES/RACES groups should monitor this situation and seek advice from local leadership as we get closer to impacts from this storm system. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, High Wind Watch Statement and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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