Storm Coordination Message #3 – Wednesday Morning 11/26/14-Thursday Morning 11/27/14 Coastal Storm Potential
Hello to all..
..Coastal Storm will affect the region Wednesday into Thanksgiving Morning with strong to damaging winds along the coast line and the potential for heavy snowfall in the interior and heavy rainfall possibly changing to snow before ending across the coastal plain north and west of the Cape Cod Canal..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Wednesday Morning Through 10 AM Thursday Morning for Hartford County Connecticut and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Northern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts and Cheshire County New Hampshire for 6-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Wednesday Morning into Thursday Morning for Tolland and Windham Counties of Connecticut, Central and Northern Middlesex Counties, Western Essex, Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts, Hillsborough County of New Hampshire and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island for 6-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible in northern and western parts of the watch area..
..A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Wednesday Morning into Thursday Morning for Eastern Essex, Norfolk, Suffolk, and Southeast Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts and Western Kent County of Rhode Island for 4-6″ of snow. This area will be near the transition zone between snow and rain and is low confidence on snowfall totals at the present time..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from Wednesday Afternoon through late Wednesday Night for sustained winds 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH possible. Coastal areas north and west of the High Wind Watch area will likely be put under wind advisories in future forecasts. These winds have the potential to cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..Locations in the Winter Storm Watch area will be monitored closely not only for the potential of significant travel impacts (worst in the mid-afternoon/evening) but also for the potential of isolated tree and wire damage due to the snow likely being of a heavy and wet consistency. Areas outside of the Winter Storm Watch issuance north and west of the Cape Cod Canal may see heavy rainfall change to a period of snow before the storm ends Thursday Morning.
..Coastal flooding is currently not expected due to lower astronomical tides and the short duration of the strong winds at the coast. Heavy rainfall in Southeast New England may lead to urban and poor drainage flooding in the typical locations..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton likely Wednesday Morning into Thursday Morning. Rough start time for activation is around 10-11 AM Wednesday..
A coastal storm will affect one of the busiest travel days of the year with heavy snowfall in the interior and heavy rainfall changing to snow over portions of Eastern New England north and west of the Cape Cod Canal. The headlines of the coordination message depict the current threats. Computer model runs have shifted slightly to the east which has allowed for a colder solution and the potential for more snow over eastern areas of the region which has meant an extension of Winter Storm Watches further east to near Boston and just to the northwest of Providence. The trend in the models will continue to be monitored as this will depict where the rain/snow line will be. Over Western Massachusetts, Southwest New Hampshire, and Northwest Connecticut, confidence is now high enough to convert Winter Storm Watches to Winter Storm Warnings for that region. The other notable change since the last update is that High Wind Watches have been posted from Wednesday Afternoon to late Wednesday Night for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the islands as stronger winds are now expected as models depict stronger winds mixing down to the surface. Wind Advisories will likely be needed for coastal and possibly southeast interior areas north and west of the High Wind Watch area. These winds may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages in the coastal plain. In addition to potential for significant travel impacts in the Winter Storm Watch/Warning areas, the potential for isolated tree and wire damage due to the snow being heavy and wet will also need to be monitored. Coastal flooding is currently not expected due to lower astronomical tides and the short duration of the strong winds at the coast. Heavy rainfall in Southeast New England may lead to urban and poor drainage flooding in the typical locations.
The coastal storm is still about 1-1.5 days away and there is still a level of track differences between the different models but the track difference is closing. The last model runs continue to have consolidated on a bit colder solution and one that would allow for significant snow occurring a bit further east possibly to near Boston and just northwest of the Providence area. Also, stronger winds are now expected in coastal areas and possibly some southeast interior locations. Further changes in the storm track could affect where the rain/snow line sets up, where the strongest winds occur and where the heaviest precipitation will occur. Future model runs will continue to better pin down snowfall amounts for the region and where the rain-snow line sets up and whether it collapses even further east through portions of Eastern New England. These future model runs may affect where additional watches, warnings and advisories are issued and expected snowfall amounts over Southern New England.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton likely Wednesday Morning into Thursday Morning. Rough start time for activation is around 10-11 AM Wednesday. The next coordination message will be issued by 1000 PM Tuesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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