Rob Macedo – Page 197

Heat and Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – July 21st, 2011

July 21, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Intense Heat and Humidity could cause issues for anyone working outdoors for an extended period of time across much of the region. A Heat Advisory is in effect from Noon to 9 PM Today and an Excessive Heat Watch for Friday Afternoon for Northern Connecticut, Central and Eastern Massachusetts, North-Central Rhode Island, and Southeast New Hampshire. Even outside of these areas, intense heat and humidity could cause issues fpr anyone outdoors in other portions of Southern New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Northern New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms with portions of Southern New Hampshire and Massachusetts from the Mass. Pike northward in a low probability category for isolated severe thunderstorms. Damaging Winds and Large Hail are the primary threats. Threat would be contingnent on thunderstorms overcoming a cap and being able to tap into extreme instability values over the area. If thunderstorms cannot break the cap, weather will be hot and dry over the region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later Thursday Afternoon and Evening..

Intense heat and humidity could cause health issues for people with extended exposure outdoors. Heat Advisories have been issued for today and Excessive Heat Watches for Friday have been issued. See link below for NWS Taunton Heat Advisory/Excessive Heat Watch information and NWS/NOAA heat safety rules:

NWS Taunton Heat Advisory/Excessive Heat Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS/NOAA Heat Safety Rules:
http://www.weather.gov/om/heat/index.shtml

While the heat will be the major story for Southern New England, Isolated Severe Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out over portions of Southern New England particularly over Southern New Hampshire and Massachusetts from the Mass. Pike northward. The atmosphere will have a strong cap which would impede convection but there will also be extreme instability. In Northern New England, an impulse will allow for the forcing required to break the cap and could cause a complex of severe weather, either a bow echo of storms or Mesoscale Convective System to organize and swing through that area with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats. If the impulse gets far enough south or can allow for the cap to break in portions of Southern New Hampshire and Massachusetts north of the pike, this could allow for isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats over this area. It is also possible that activity stays north of the NWS Taunton CWA resulting in just very hot and dry weather and the severe weather threat is a low risk probability but because of the extreme instability with the heat and humidity, it is worth mentioning this in a coordination message in case thunderstorms can organize to the south of the prime threat zone of Northern New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later today and this evening if the threat for severe thunderstorms occurs over the area. This will be the only coordination message unless time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Local Storm Report (7/18/11) & Post Severe Weather Event Analysis

July 19, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

Today’s severe weather event was more isolated in scope and this had to do with a weakening Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that went over the area during the late morning and afternoon hours. This caused extensive cloud cover precluding a more widespread event. One isolated strong thunderstorm associated with the MCS caused minor wind damage in West Newbury, Mass with a 39 Knot measured wind gust at Eastern Point Gloucester, Mass. followed by an isolated severe thunderstorm affecting the Wareham, South Plymouth, and Bourne, Massachusetts area. An Isolated to Scattered strong to possibly Severe Thunderstorm or two could still occur over the overnight hours but the threat for a more widespread event has diminished and the threat for this isolated to scattered activity is low and will be monitored with SKYWARN Self-Activation. Weather models have difficulties with Mesoscale Convective Systems and can sometimes miss a system and its position entirely. This was the case today with the MCS that went through the area during the late Monday Morning and Afternoon timeframe limiting the severe weather threat.

The following Local Storm Reports highlight the activity from today’s minor weather event:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/LSR_7_18_11.txt

As warmer temperatures approach towards the Thursday to Friday timeframe with the potential for temperatures well into the 90s to perhaps 100 degrees, the threat for severe weather could hinge on Mesoscale Convective Systems, their timing, intensity and track toward the area. This will make for challenging convective forecasts during this period. Along with the heat, the potential for severe weather will need possible monitoring as we move toward this portion of the week.

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Monday July 18th, 2011 Threat

July 18, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Potential exists for a Severe Weather Outbreak across much of Southern New England Monday Afternoon and Evening. Damaging Winds, large hail, urban/poor drainage flooding to isolated flash flooding and isolated supercells are the primary threats..
..Threat timeframe is anytime after 11 AM today. The Storm Prediction Center and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a high-end Slight Risk of severe weather for much of Southern New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime after 11 AM today..

At 7 AM, Doppler Radar showed a weakening area of showers and embedded thunderstorms over Southern New Hampshire. This will affect northeast Massachusetts before racing out to sea. A complex of strong thunderstorms is over Lake Ontario diving Southeastward. This will get into Central and Eastern New York later this morning and could get into portions of Western New England early to mid this afternoon and into Central and Eastern New England mid to late afternoon. Satellite imagery at 7 AM shows some mid to high level clouds over Southern New England that should clear out and allow for heating and destablization over the next few hours. Presuming the complex over Lake Ontario holds together as expected, this will likely be the complex that produces a potentially widespread severe weather episode over the region. Damaging Winds, Large Hail, urban and poor drainage flooding to possibly isolated flash flooding and isolated supercells are the main threats. It is noted that the Storm Prediction Center has put Southern New England back into the high percentage slight risk for severe thunderstorm category and NWS Taunton is in agreement. This event is not expected to be as potent as June 1st of this year but it should be a potentially active severe weather day in the region and today’s storms should be monitored closely.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime after 11 AM today. This will likely be the last complete coordination message as we move into operations mode. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday July 18th, 2011 Threat

July 17, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thundertorms with the potential for a more widespread severe weather event remain a threat for Monday Afternoon through Monday Evening. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats.
..The Storm Prediction Center and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms for Monday. While the high category slight risk has been pulled to the west of Southern New England, there still remains a threat for a more widespread severe weather event and higher probability of severe weather as noted in the 0600 UTC SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting as early as 11 AM to Noon lasting through late Monday Evening..

Monday is shaping up to be an active day for thunderstorms across the region and will set the stage for at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. If certain parameters line up, a more widespread severe weather event will be possible. Models indicate sufficient heating for destablization with strong wind shear profiles but in more of a speed shear and unidirectional environment for strong straight-line winds. This could set the stage for one or two clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and very heavy rainfall that could induce urban/poor drainage flooding. Some items that could mitigate the overall threat for Monday include:

1.) Cloud cover from a convective complex expected to affect Northern New England overnight Sunday Night may delay the severe weather threat until later afternoon or mitigate the severe weather episode.

2.) West winds that could dry out dewpoints in Western New England leading to less destablization.

At this time, parameters indicate active thunderstorms in the area with isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. If the two mitigating factors above don’t occur, a more widespread severe weather event will be possible.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely as early as 11 AM-Noon lasting through late evening. The next coordination message will be issued by 830 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1107171728.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday July 6th, 2011 Severe Weather Potential

July 6, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible over portions of Southern New Hampshire and Western and Central Massachusetts where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..A conditional threat for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms exists in areas south and east of the slight risk area in interior Southern New England away from the coastal areas..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is possible anytime after 4 PM ET..

Severe weather threat for today is contingent on the position of a pre-frontal trough/cold front and dewpoints rising into the upper 60s over the region. Sunshine and heating through the day will occur which will start destablization of the atmosphere but it will be the winds shifting to the southwest and advecting higher humidity air and higher dewpoints and the position of the front as a trigger that will determine the scope of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over the region. Wind shear profiles are expected to remain sufficient for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development if the front is close enough to the region and higher dewpoint air works its way into the region. The highest risk of this occurring is over Southern New Hampshire and Western and Central Massachusetts where SPC has placed this area under a Slight Risk for severe weather. Areas south and east of the slight risk area will have a more conditional threat for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The threat timeframe looks to be in the late afternoon and evening hours after 4 PM ET.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible late this afternoon and evening. This will be the last complete coordination message on this threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday July 6th, 2011 Severe Weather Potential

July 5, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night over portions of Southern New England particularly over Southern New Hampshire, Western, North-Central and Northeastern Massachusetts along and north of the Massachusetts Turnpike where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed that region in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible late Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Night..

During the 4th of July, areas of Southeastern New Hampshire into Northeastern Massachusetts did experience strong thunderstorms with isolated severe thunderstorms in Essex County Massachusetts with more widespread activity in New Hampshire and Maine as predicted. SKYWARN Self-Activation was utilized to handle the isolated strong to severe thunderstorms that affected parts of the region. The link below is to the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report on the severe weather reports in Essex County Massachusetts from 7/4/11:

NWS Taunton 7/4/11 Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1107050009.nwus51.html

On Wednesday, we will continue to have hot and humid weather over the region. A cold front will drop down into Northern New England as we get into Wednesday Afternoon and early evening and will make its way into Southern New England Wednesday Night into Thursday. Models then diverge in terms of passing this cold front through Southern New England before stalling or having the front further west of the region as we get into Wednesday Night and Thursday. This could have some impact in how far south the severe weather threat extends for the late Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Night timeframe. At this time, its expected that the front will be close enough to the region for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm development extending as far south as Southern New Hampshire, Western, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts where a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms is highlighted by SPC. Areas to the south of the slight risk area away from the coast may also see an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm depending on the front position.

Shear profiles will be sufficient for severe weather. In terms of instability, some warm air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere may initially inhibit development of storms and destablization but as the cold front approaches and we get towards evening, cooling of those mid-levels should occur sufficiently to allow for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms particularly in the SPC Slight Risk area.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening. Another coordination message will be issued by 10 AM ET Wednesday. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1107051731.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Special Announcement: ARRL Hurricane Webinar on Thursday July 7th, 2011 8-930 PM EDT

July 5, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

The following is a special announcement on a ARRL Hurricane Webinar that is of particular interest to Southern New England Amateurs near or along coastal areas:

On Thursday July 7th, 2011 from 8-930 PM EDT, the ARRL will be hosting a Webinar on Hurricanes and the Amateur Radio Response to the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Representatives from the VoIP Hurricane Net, WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, the Hurricane Watch Net and the ARRL will be giving presentations and discussion in this webinar. The webinar is open to all Amateurs, however, we strongly encourage Amateurs in hurricane prone areas to attend this webinar as the data will apply the most to these people. The ARRL web site article is listed below:

http://www.arrl.org/news/register-for-upcoming-webinar-on-amateur-radio-response-to-2011-hurricane-season

We hope many Amateurs particularly Amateurs in hurricane prone areas can attend this webinar. We will also check to see if this webinar will be archived for review by Amateurs who cannot attend the session live.

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday July 4th, 2011 Severe Weather Potential

July 4, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible in portions of Southern New England with the greatest risk in Southern New Hampshire and Northeast Massachusetts. SPC has placed New Hampshire and Maine in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Today..
..Key potential limiters in severe weather potential today is drier air in the mid levels of the atmosphere and weak wind fields..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this afternoon and evening..

At 910 AM, Satellite imagery shows high level clouds over Southern New England with sunshine and heating occurring through those clouds while in Northern New England conditions are sunny. A trough over Quebec will move southeast into the region today and this can be seen on Satellite imagery as well. Heating should allow for destablization of the atmosphere across the region through this afternoon. As the trough approaches the region, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop as we get into the afternoon and evening hours. The greatest threat appears to be in Northern and Central New Hampshire and Maine where wind fields are a bit stronger, however, portions of Southern New Hampshire and Northeast Massachusetts in the NWS Taunton County Warning Area may see activity as the trough swings through the region. Wind fields are weaker over Southern New England and dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere may limit coverage of any strong to severe thunderstorms, however, if stronger wind fields enter the region and/or thunderstorms overcome the mid-level dry air, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop in portions of Southern New England particularly over Southern New Hampshire and Northeast Massachusetts. Trends will be monitored throughout the day.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this afternoon and evening. This will likely be the only complete coordiantion message on today’s event. A shortened coordination message will be sent if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Sunday July 3rd, 2011 Severe Weather Potential

July 3, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Numerous Showers and embedded Thunderstorms will slowly spread from northwest to southeast over the NWS Taunton County Warning Area. Biggest threats will be for frequent lightning and heavy rainfall causing urban/poor drainage flooding to possibly flash flooding. An Isolated Severe Thunderstorm or two capable of damaging wind or an isolated wet microburst or two cannot be ruled out..
..There is a threat for more thunderstorms on Monday. This will be discussed in greater detail later this evening..
..After coordination with NWS Taunton, SKYWARN Self-Activation will be utilized to handle this event unless more widespread strong to severe thunderstorms or flash flooding becomes evident. If Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated, a shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows..

At 1120 AM, Doppler Radar is showing an area of showers and embedded thunderstorms from Southwest New Hampshire through Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. This activity is moving South-Southeast and will affect Central Massachusetts, Northeast Connecticut, Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts between Noon and 3 PM. Satellite imagery earlier this morning showed sun and some heating and destablization over Central Massachusetts into Rhode Island. This may allow some of the activity currently in Western New England to intensify a bit as it moves east provided it doesn’t outrun upper level air support. Further back in Eastern New York, stronger thunderstorms are organizing with heavier rainfall and possibly strong winds and are slowly moving east-southeast and may affect portions of Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut later this afternoon.

The primary threats for today are heavy rainfall causing urban and poor drainage flooding to possibly flash flooding and lightning affecting outdoor activities. An Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm producing a wet microburst or damaging wind cannot be ruled out but its not the primary threat today.

There is a threat for more thunderstorms on Monday. This will be discussed in greater detail later this evening.

After coordination with NWS Taunton, SKYWARN Self-Activation will be utilized to handle this event unless more widespread strong to severe thunderstorms or flash flooding becomes evident. If Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated, a shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows. This will be the last complete coordination message for today’s event. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday July 3rd, 2011 Severe Weather Potential

July 2, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Slow moving cold front will bring active weather to Southern New England late Sunday Morning through Sunday Evening with numerous strong thunderstorms and the possibility of isolated severe thunderstorms. Main threats will be isolated damaging winds, urban/poor drainage to potential flash flooding, lightning and possibly hail..
..Another threat for Isolated to Scattered Severe Thunderstorms exists for late Monday Afternoon..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Sunday. Tentative start timeframe is 11 AM Sunday. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on Monday..

Sunday will have active weather as humidity will increase Saturday Night into Sunday. A slow moving cold front will move into the region. Presuming there is no convection or cloud cover from leftover convection from New York State that moves into the area, heating and destablization will commence and the weak cold front will provide focus for thunderstorm development. Wind Shear profiles are weak so the severe threat should be confined to isolated severe thunderstorms that produce isolated to a few scattered wind damage reports and possibly a few hail reports. The main threat will be urban/poor drainage flooding to flash flooding with an atmosphere that has a high moisture content. Lightning will also be a risk with thunderstorms which is a threat to outdoor activities. The threat timeframe as it looks right now is anytime after 11 AM Sunday starting out west and working its way east. The thunderstorms should wind down towards late evening around 9-10 PM.

Another threat for strong thunderstorms exists for late Monday Afternoon. This will be reviewed and updated more closely after the Sunday event.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Sunday with a tentative start time of 11 AM. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on Monday. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM this evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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