Uncategorized – Page 15

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Late Monday Night 8/7/23-Tuesday 8/8/23 Severe Weather & Flood Potential

August 7, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..A risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms during the overnight hours Monday Night through Tuesday Morning with a second timeframe Tuesday mid-afternoon through early evening. Strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the primary threats with an isolated tornado or waterspout as the secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a Marginal risk for severe weather overnight Monday into Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential overnight Monday through Tuesday. Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should have multiple ways to receive weather alerts given that some of this severe weather and flood potential will be possible during the overnight/nocturnal period where most people are sleeping..

There is a risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms during the overnight Monday Night to Tuesday Morning timeframe with a second more limited round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) Ability of jet dynamics, turning in the atmosphere and instability from very high dewpoints to compensate for other more limited instability parameters to allow for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) The ability for the mesoscale factors of jet dynamics, turning in the atmosphere and high instability to overlap and maximize along with the formation of a triple point low which would increase the severe weather potential.
3.) Flooding from heavy downpours in thunderstorms depending on the intensity of the thunderstorms as they move through the area given still relatively wet conditions particularly in interior Southern New England.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential overnight Monday through Tuesday. Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should have multiple ways to receive weather alerts given that some of this severe weather and flood potential will be possible during the overnight/nocturnal period where most people are sleeping. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Monday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday 8/4/23 Severe Weather and Flood Potential

August 4, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely particularly Friday mid-Afternoon through Friday Night and expanded a bit eastward through Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island but all areas should monitor. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and North-Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut into a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk through Northern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and Northeast Massachusetts with an 80% chance for a severe thunderstorm watch for parts of the area..
..Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lighting and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with the most focused severe weather potential timeframe between 3-10 PM Friday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Friday..

Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely for this Friday Afternoon and Evening including an 80% chance for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern New England. The headlines depict current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) While less heating is expected than prior severe weather events we had in July, cooling aloft and other unfavorable severe weather parameters in July will be more favorable than those events in July and likely compensate for lack of heating.
2.) Wind shear profiles are marginally sufficient for severe thunderstorm development.
3.) Timing of the cold front will be reasonably timed for western areas to see isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms but maybe a bit later than peak heating in eastern areas and this will have to be monitored on how far east any strong to severe thunderstorms can progress into those areas.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Friday. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and Mesoscale Convective Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook & Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1830.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 8/4/23 – Severe Weather & Flood Potential

August 4, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible particularly late Friday Afternoon and Friday Night focused on Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut but all areas should monitor. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and North-Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut into a marginal to slight risk for severe weather with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lighting and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Friday Morning into Friday Evening. Another more complete coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230803_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Special Announcement: charter/hotmail/msn/outlook Email Addresses Blocked from Receiving SKYWARN Announcement Emails

August 2, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

This special announcement is being sent and posted on our website and social media feeds as well even though people with charter/hotmail/msn/outlook email addresses will not get this email directly. If you know a SKYWARN Spotter or Amateur Radio Operator who has a charter, hotmail, msn or outlook email address and are on the SKYWARN email list, please forward this message to them.

We are facing a problem where Microsoft is intentionally blocking all SKYWARN Announcement emails. This is despite our email administrator, N1XTB-Phil McNamara reaching out to Microsoft to have the block removal rejected. Our server and email list is not on any block list for spam and Phil insures email delivery is set to today’s IT standards but the server remains blocked by Microsoft.

For those affected, we recommend the following two items:
1.) Complain to Microsoft about this problem and tell them the following:
Allow traffic from IP:
96.230.52.20
the originating domain is oak.w1mv.org

2.) Subscribe an alternate email address as it may take considerable time to convince Microsoft to release the block off the email list.

If any Amateur Radio Operator or non-Amateur Radio Operator SKYWARN Spotter has contacts that might assist us in getting this block removed, please reach out to myself and N1XTB-Phil McNamara via email. Phil’s email is N1XTB@powersrvcs.com

We appreciate your patience on this issue and thanks to all of you for their support of the NWS Boston/Norton SKYWARN program!

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Saturday 7/29/23 Severe Weather and Flash Flood Potential

July 29, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..One more day of potential severe weather and flash flooding for portions of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening between 12-9 PM today..

..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Connecticut, Rhode Island, Southwest, South-Central and Southeast Massachusetts along and south of the Mass Pike in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather for the rest of Southern New England north of the Pike. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban/poor drainage, river and stream flooding are the primary threat with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) continues all of Southern New England to a slight risk for excessive rainfall..

..A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire coverage area except through late Saturday Night for the entire NWS Norton coverage area except for Southern Rhode Island, Eastern Plymouth County and Cape Cod and the Islands for excessive rainfall leading to urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding.

..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday to monitor the severe weather and flood potential. Pictures of storm damage, flooding and post storm reports can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

On Saturday Morning, there was little in the way of thunderstorm activity but Block Island RI did get a severe thunderstorm with wind gusts as high as 74 MPH as reported by a sailboat on the island, trees down and some damage to a boat and dragging of a yacht in Block Island Harbor. Details on this event for Block Island RI are below:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Saturday 7/29/23:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/LSR_Block_Island_7_29_23.pdf

WX1BOX Twitter Feed Block Island RI as relayed by Eweather13:
https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1685278886731382784?s=20
https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1685278886731382784?s=20
https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1685277795692220416?s=20
https://twitter.com/WX1BOX/status/1685268445015715841
https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1685226241413025792

Thursday 7/27/23 brought the most widespread severe weather event of the season to date to Southern New England. Just north of the NWS Norton coverage area, an EF1 Tornado occurred in Cheshire County NH from North Swanzey NH to Marlboro and Dublin NH. A WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album will be posted later this weekend/early next week on this severe weather event. Below are the WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log, NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report and the NWS Gray Maine Public Information Statement on EF1 tornado in the Dublin NH area:

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_27_23.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/LSR_7_28_23.pdf

NWS Gray Maine Public Information Statement – EF1 Tornado in the Dublin NH area:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/PNS_GYX_Dublin_NH_Tornado_7_27_23.pdf

Another round of potential severe weather and flash flooding for portions of Southern New England for Saturday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.)Shower activity over Southeast New York, Southwest Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and impact on heating and how this progresses and whether it develops further as the cold front moves through the area later this afternoon an evening.
2.) Heating and destabilization overlapping sufficient wind shear profiles for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
3.) Timing of the triggering mechanism which is a cold front during or shortly after the time of peak heating.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday to monitor the severe weather and flood potential. Pictures of storm damage, flooding and post storm reports can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230728_1730.html

WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 7/29/23 Severe Weather & Flood Potential

July 29, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..One more day of potential severe weather and flash flooding for portions of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening between 12-9 PM with a low risk of a strong to severe thunderstorm early Saturday Morning in Southeast New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather for the rest of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban/poor drainage, river and stream flooding are the primary threat with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has upgraded all of Southern New England to a slight risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday to monitor the severe weather and flood potential. Pictures of storm damage, flooding and post storm reports can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook..

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_27_23.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/LSR_7_28_23.pdf

NWS Gray Maine Public Information Statement – EF1 Tornado in the Dublin NH area:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/PNS_GYX_Dublin_NH_Tornado_7_27_23.pdf

Another round of potential severe weather and flash flooding for portions of Southern New England for Saturday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) What, if any, morning convection occurs particularly over Southeast New England and any cloud debris that activity generates as well as how strong that convection is. If it forms, it would likely be garden variety but can’t rule out an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm.
2.) Heating and destabilization overlapping sufficient wind shear profiles for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
3.) Timing of the triggering mechanism which is a cold front during or shortly after the time of peak heating.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday to monitor the severe weather and flood potential. Pictures of storm damage, flooding and post storm reports can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230728_1730.html

WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 7/29/23 – Severe Weather & Flash Flood Potential

July 28, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..One more day of potential severe weather and flash flooding for portions of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening between 12-9 PM timeframe with a low risk of a strong to severe thunderstorm early Saturday Morning in Southeast New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather for the rest of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban/poor drainage, river and stream flooding are the primary threat with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday with Amateur Radio Ops at NWS Boston/Norton possible Saturday Afternoon and Evening. A more complete coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Friday Evening including the summary of reports from the Thursday 7/27/23 severe weather event. Pictures of storm damage, flooding and post storm reports can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday 7/27/23 Severe Weather & Flash Flood Potential

July 27, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Renewed threat for severe weather across all of Southern New England with flash flooding potential in interior parts of Massachusetts hard hit by recent severe weather and flash flood events for Thursday Afternoon and Evening. This has the potential to be a significant severe weather outbreak for interior Southern New England. Oppressive Heat and Humidity is also expected in the Thursday through Saturday timeframe..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather for Thursday Afternoon and Evening for scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding of urban/poor drainage areas, rivers and streams as the main threat with isolated tornadoes as a secondary threat. The timeframe for severe weather potential is from 12-9 PM Thursday and SPC has sent a mesoscale convective discussion for an 80% chance of a watch for the region..
..The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed interior Southern New England from a Boston to Providence line west and north into a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall for Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect from Thursday Morning through Thursday Evening for the entire NWS Norton coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands and Washington County RI for excessive rainfall leading to flooding of urban and poor drainage areas, small rivers and streams..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM Thursday Morning to 8 PM Saturday Evening for the entire NWS Norton Coverage area except for the East Slopes of the Berkshires and Cape Cod and the Islands for heat indices up to 100 degrees..
..Due to the potential for severe weather Thursday and severe weather potential for Friday and Saturday, Post messages on the prior flood and severe weather events will be posted by Sunday 7/30/23 or Monday 7/31/23..
..SKYWARN Activation with Amateur Radio at NWS will be active by 1 PM EDT this Thursday Afternoon. Pictures, videos and reports on severe weather/flooding for the upcoming 7/27/23 severe weather/flood event can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the picture/video unless otherwise indicated..

Another severe weather and flood event affected the region Tuesday Afternoon and Evening 7/25/23. Below are the summary reports on the events Tuesday:

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log of Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotter Reports – Tuesday 7/25/23 Severe Weather Event:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_25_23.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Tuesday 7/25/23 Severe Weather Event:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/LSR-from-KBOX-7_25_23.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Tuesday 7/25/23 Severe Weather Event:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/PNS-from-KBOX-7_25_23.pdf

Any pictures, videos and reports on severe weather/flooding from Tuesday 7/25/23, can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the picture/video unless otherwise indicated.

Yet another in a series of severe weather and flash flood events could potentially occur during Thursday Afternoon and Evening. The timeframe for severe weather potential is from 12-9 PM Thursday and SPC has sent a mesoscale convective discussion for an 80% chance of a watch for the region. This has the potential to be a significant severe weather outbreak for the region. Key factors include:

1.) Cloud debris which is moving out as forecasted today and heating is taking place as expected though this will bear close watching that it continues as expected for the day.
2.) Timing of any thunderstorm development near or shortly after the time of peak heating

SKYWARN Activation with Amateur Radio at NWS will be active by 1 PM EDT this Thursday Afternoon. Pictures, videos and reports on severe weather/flooding for the upcoming 7/27/23 severe weather/flood event can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the picture/video unless otherwise indicated. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook, SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion and WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1736.html

WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 7/27/23 Severe Weather & Flash Flood Potential

July 26, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..After a one day reprieve, a renewed threat for severe weather across all of Southern New England with flash flooding potential in interior parts of Massachusetts hard hit by recent severe weather and flash flood events for Thursday Afternoon and Evening. This event will bear close monitoring as this could be a significant severe weather event if certain mesoscale features line up accordingly. Oppressive Heat and Humidity is also expected in the Thursday through Saturday timeframe..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather for Thursday Afternoon and Evening for scattered to possibly numerous strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding of urban/poor drainage areas, rivers and streams as the main threat with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat.
..The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed interior Southern New England from a Boston to Providence line west and north into a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall for Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect from Thursday Morning through Thursday Evening for Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts for excessive rainfall leading to flooding of urban and poor drainage areas, small rivers and streams..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM Thursday Morning to 8 PM Friday Evening for North-Central Rhode Island, Northern Connecticut, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Worcester, Central and Southeast Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for heat indices up to 100 degrees..
..Due to the potential for severe weather Thursday and severe weather potential for Friday and Saturday, Post messages on the prior flood and severe weather events will be posted by Sunday 7/30/23 or Monday 7/31/23..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Thursday Afternoon and Evening with additional operational measures being considered depending on the evolving severe weather potential. Pictures, videos and reports on severe weather/flooding from Tuesday 7/25/23, prior events or the upcoming 7/27/23 severe weather/flood event can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the picture/video unless otherwise indicated..

Another severe weather and flood event affected the region Tuesday Afternoon and Evening 7/25/23. Below are the summary reports on the events Tuesday:

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log of Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotter Reports – Tuesday 7/25/23 Severe Weather Event:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_25_23.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Tuesday 7/25/23 Severe Weather Event:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/LSR-from-KBOX-7_25_23.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Tuesday 7/25/23 Severe Weather Event:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/PNS-from-KBOX-7_25_23.pdf

Yet another in a series of severe weather and flash flood events could potentially occur during Thursday Afternoon and Evening. The exact timing is a bit uncertain. This has the potential to be a particularly robust severe weather event if certain mesoscale parameters line up. Those key factors include:

1.) What amount of cloud cover debris occurs from ongoing convection west of New England overnight into Thursday Morning. If more heating can occur than currently expected, it would raise the potential for potent and numerous severe thunderstorms in the coverage area.
2.) Timing of any thunderstorm development near or shortly after the time of peak heating

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Thursday Afternoon and Evening with additional operational measures being considered depending on the evolving severe weather potential. Pictures, videos and reports on severe weather/flooding from Tuesday 7/25/23, prior events or the upcoming 7/27/23 severe weather/flood event can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the picture/video unless otherwise indicated. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook, and WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230726_1730.html

WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday Afternoon & Evening 7/25/23 Severe Weather Potential

July 25, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening anytime between 12-9 PM across much of Southern New England with the greatest potential in interior Southern New England from roughly Southwest Massachusetts and the Connecticut River Valley through Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, North-Central Rhode Island and Connecticut..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Tuesday with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lighting and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..Additionally, SPC has placed all of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather on Thursday as oppressive heat and humidity builds into the region. Future coordination messages on Wednesday will detail this severe weather potential and the oppressive heat potential for the Thursday through Saturday timeframe..
..A Post Severe Weather/Flood Coordination Message from the Friday 7/21/23 flash flood and severe weather event will be posted later today or on Wednesday as we wrap up data, pictures, videos etc. that have come in while handling today’s severe weather potential and the team also handled isolated strong thunderstorm activity from Monday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening and Self-Activation, at minimum, is likely on Thursday Afternoon and Evening..

Continued periodic chances for severe weather and flooding continue this week along with the potential for a heat wave in the Thursday through Saturday timeframe. This message focuses on today’s potential across Southern New England with another potentially more robust severe weather event on Thursday that will be handled in future coordination messages along with the oppressive heat potential. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for Tuesday’s severe weather potential include:

1.) Timing of the trough axis into Southern New England. This timing has varied the severe weather potential from early to mid afternoon to the later afternoon/early evening timeframe so there is a wide range in time on the severe weather potential.
2.) Upper level Wind Shear and certain instability parameters are favorable but lower levels of the atmosphere winds and other instability parameters are unfavorable so the more favorable parameters will be key in overcoming the unfavorable ones for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to develop.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening and Self-Activation, at minimum, is likely on Thursday Afternoon and Evening. This will likely be the only coordination message on today’s severe weather potential unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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