Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible to likely today across much of Southern New England. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail and the potential for flash flooding are the main threats..
..The Timeframe appears to be as early midday today through early evening in locations along and east of the Connecticut River Valley as a strong cold front brings an end to the heat and humidity across the region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting around Noon to 1 PM lasting through early evening..

Another significant flash flood episode affected portions of Southern New England Monday with the hardest hit area being parts of Rhode Island that were impacted significantly on Sunday. The Local Storm Report on flood information and spotter reports are listed below:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1309022206.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1309022206.nous41.html

At 850 AM, Satellite imagery shows considerable sunshine across much of interior Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Northern Connecticut with cloud cover in Eastern New York likely associated with the cold front. If heating for destabilization continues across the region with thunderstorm activity occurring along or ahead of the cloud cover in Eastern New York, sufficient wind shear profiles coupled with the unstable atmosphere will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the area with the potential for strong to damaging winds, hail and the potential for flash flooding. Unlike the last couple of days, thunderstorms should be moving more quickly over the area so the flash flood threat will not be quite as high as past days but if areas that have been hard hit over the last couple days get hit with thunderstorms and heavy rainfall, they may flood more quickly because of the past rainfall.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting around Noon to 1 PM lasting through early evening. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows an Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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Hello to all..

..Potential for Flash Flooding and Isolated To Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with strong winds and hail over the course of Labor Day and into Tuesday. Exact timing and extent of the flash flood and severe weather potential remains uncertain but thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and flash flood potential are starting to organize over the area..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect through this evening for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will start around 12 PM today lasting through early evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on Tuesday and will be detailed in a later coordination message..

On Sunday, flash flooding affected portions of Southern New England particularly across Central Rhode Island and portions of Southeast Middlesex, Northern and Eastern Norfolk and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts. Isolated rainfall amounts of 2-5″ occurred resulting in numerous road closures and cars stuck in flood waters and several damaged homes and house fires due to lightning.

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1309012333.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1309020219.nous41.html

At 1125 AM, Doppler Radar shows heavy rain showers and thunderstorms across North-Central Connecticut in portions of Hartford-Tolland County Connecticut. Additional Heavy showers and thunderstorms are occurring in parts of Central and Northeast New England. A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect through this evening for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage area. The main threat with thunderstorms today will be flash flooding but isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could bring a strong wind and hail threat as well.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will start around 12 PM today lasting through early evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on Tuesday and will be detailed in a later coordination message.

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..Potential for Flash Flooding and Isolated To Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with strong winds and hail over the course of Labor Day and into Tuesday. Exact timing and extent of the flash flood and severe weather potential is uncertain..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely during portions of Labor Day and into Tuesday. SKYWARN Self-Activation may also be utilized given the uncertainty of the magnitude and timing of any flash flood and/or severe weather potential..

On Sunday, flash flooding affected portions of Southern New England particularly across Central Rhode Island and portions of Southeast Middlesex, Northern and Eastern Norfolk and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts. Isolated rainfall amounts of 2-5″ occurred resulting in numerous road closures and cars stuck in flood waters and several damaged homes and house fires due to lightning.

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1309012333.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1309020219.nous41.html

Over the course of Labor Day and into Tuesday with the warm and humid air remaining in place, it will set the stage for the potential of additional isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development with strong winds, hail and flash flooding as potential threats. The timing of these thunderstorms are uncertain as well as magnitude. Some computer models push the threat more into Monday Night and Tuesday while other computer models have the threat over much of Monday and Tuesday across the region. This will make for difficulty in timing potential formal SKYWARN Activation and Ops at NWS Taunton and the utilization of SKYWARN Self-Activation to cover things as they unfold as what occurred on Sunday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely during portions of Labor Day and into Tuesday. SKYWARN Self-Activation may also be utilized given the uncertainty of the magnitude and timing of any flash flood and/or severe weather potential. Another coordination Message will be posted late Monday Morning or early Monday Afternoon depending on how storms evolve overnight and into Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1309011731.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

The following is an announcement regarding the 14th Annual Southern New England Weather Conference on Saturday October 26th, 2013.

Earlybird registration is now available through Sept. 12 for this year’s 14th Annual Southern New England Weather Conference.  The conference will be held on Saturday, October 26th at Meditech Corp. in Canton, MA (at base of Blue Hill), same place as last year.

The conference is sponsored by the not-for-profit Blue Hill Observatory Science Center. The conference will still cover many of the various weather events that have affected Southern New England recently, but there will be several talks on Superstorm Sandy. Other topics that will be covered include:

Signficant tornadoes in New England and New York since 1995
The 75th anniversary of the 1938 Hurricane

The highlight of the day will be a comparison of the Blizzard of 2013 to the Blizzard of 1978, presented by Harvey Leonard and Matt Noyes.

Registration Fees:

Please note that registration will be stopped after 230 registrants!

Early Bird Registration (Today – Sept 12):  $89
Student/Teacher Early and Regular Registration (Aug 1 – Oct 22): $89
Regular Registration (Sept 13 – Oct 22): $99
Late Registration (Oct 26 – at the conference site): $109 (on-line registration will not be available after Oct 22.)
Student/Teacher Late Registration (Oct 26): $99 (same rules as above)

Key Southern New England Weather Conference Links:

Conference website: http://www.sneweatherconf.org
Conference agenda/abstracts/biographies:  http://www.sneweatherconf.org/2013Agenda.shtml
Conference registration:  http://www.sneweatherconf.org/confregform.cfm

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator

Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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Hello to all..

The following is a special announcement on a commemorative event for the 75th Anniversary of the historic 1938 Hurricane sponsored by the Blue Hill Observatory. The announcement appears below:

Blue Hill Observatory is very proud to host New England’s commemorative event for the 75th Anniversary of the the historic 1938 Hurricane.

Featuring the Director of the National Weather Service, Dr. Louis Uccellini as keynote speaker, the luncheon and Hurricane Conference will dramatically recapture the events of that incredible day. Other presenters will include, Bob Thompson and Dave Vallee from the NWS office in Taunton MA, author Dr. William Minsinger and noted MIT Professor Dr. Kerry Emanuel. There will also be a video presentation by National Hurricane Director, Dr. Rick Knabb. The Conference will be held at Fuller Village in Milton MA on Saturday September 21st from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m.

This will be followed by a 75th Anniversary Event at the Eliot Tower at 3:30 p.m. and a private reception at Blue Hill Observatory from 4:30 to 6:30 p.m.  Reservations are now being accepted at $45. (member/student/senior), $55 non-member for the luncheon and Conference and $25 ($30 non-member) for the reception at Blue Hill Observatory. The Anniversary Event at Eliot Tower is open to the public at no charge. To register and for more information, please contact Charles Orloff at 508-776-1879 or email corloff@bluehill.org. Payment may be made by check to Blue Hill Observatory sent to P.O. Box 187, Readville, MA 02137 or by credit card to Don McCasland at 617.696.0562. To pay by Paypal please go to our website- www.bluehill.org

CONTACTS:

Charles Orloff, Executive Director
corloff@bluehill.org
(508) 776-1879

Don McCasland, Program Director
dmccasland@bluehill.org
(617) 696-0562

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and urban/poor drainage and small river/stream flooding potential are likely today region wide and Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with damaging winds are possible this afternoon and evening with the greatest threat for strong to severe thunderstorms across Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts though all areas should monitor this potential..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely starting around Midday Tuesday into Tuesday Evening..

At 720 AM, Doppler Radar indicated rain spreading into portions of Connecticut with heavier rain and embedded thunderstorms over portions of Eastern New York. This activity will spread across Southern New England today. The greatest threat from this activity is heavy rainfall leading to urban/poor drainage and small/river stream flooding across areas that receive the heaviest rainfall. Heavy rainfall will not likely be as widespread as Friday but localized areas could have flooding issues particularly in urban and poor drainage areas and on flashier rivers and streams that respond quickly to short duration heavy rainfall.

While extensive cloud cover will likely limit any severe weather potential due to the lack of sunshine limiting instability values, the humid conditions coupled with strong wind shear profiles may allow for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms by midday into this evening across portions of Southern New England particularly in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts though all areas should monitor. Damaging Winds are the primary threat though there is even the possibility of an isolated weak tornado if a thunderstorm can become intense enough due to the strong wind shear profiles aloft but the main threat would be strong to damaging straightline winds.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely starting around Midday today lasting into Tuesday Evening. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..Heavy Rainfall and embedded thunderstorms likely across the region but particularly in Western New England today into tonight with the potential for flash flooding of urban/poor drainage areas and small river/streams. Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds is also possible across the region but particularly again in Western New England later this afternoon into early this evening..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Southern New Hampshire, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Northern Worcester, Northern and Central Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts from 8 AM through Friday Afternoon. The potential exists for rainfall of 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts of 4″ or more over portions of the Flash Flood Watch area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 9 AM EDT to monitor for rainfall and flash flood reports and the isolated severe weather potential..

At 715 AM, Doppler Radar showed two areas of heavy rainfall, one over Northwest Massachusetts and Southern Vermont spreading into Southern New Hampshire. A second area of heavy rainfall extends into Southeast New York. These areas of heavy rain will have the potential to produce 1-3″ of rain with isolated amounts of 4″ or more across portions of Western New England. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from 8 AM Friday Morning through Friday Afternoon for Southern New Hampshire and Hampden, Hampshire, Franklin, Northern Worcester and Northern and Central Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts. Heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms may also affect parts of the region east of the Flash Flood Watch area.

There is also the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across the region later this afternoon and evening with strong to damaging winds. The threat is region wide though the biggest threat for this activity is also in Western New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 9 AM EDT to monitor for rainfall and flash flood reports and the isolated severe weather potential. This will be the only coordination message issued on today’s weather. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..Thunderstorms with Heavy Rainfall and potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and the possibility of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds and hail are possible today across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut in the afternoon and evening hours..
..A similar potential exists for Friday across interior Western New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible today and Friday..

At 630 AM, Doppler Radar showed an area of showers moving through Eastern Massachusetts and should be offshore later this morning. Another area of showers and thunderstorms extends over Central New York and into Central Pennsylvania. Cloud cover is fairly extensive over the region and should be that way for most of the day. Nevertheless, thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and the potential of urban and poor drainage flooding along with isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds and hail are possible today across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut as we get into the afternoon and evening hours. A similar potential exists for Friday and this is all ahead of a slow moving cold front that will push through the region later Friday Night into Saturday Morning.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible today and Friday. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Additional coordination messages for Friday will likely follow tonight and Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to possibly Severe Thunderstorms possible today across interior Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the main threats starting in the west after 200 PM and in eastern areas after 4-5 PM. Most thunderstorms will be subsevere but can’t rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm based on current trends..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be utilized to cover today’s storm threat. This will be the only coordination message on today’s threat unless an upgrade to the situation occurs and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion describing today’s threat..

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..Thunderstorms with flash flooding occurred overnight into early this morning over portions of Western Massachusetts with 2-4″+ rainfall over Southwest New Hampshire and Western Massachusetts. Additional Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and the possibility of an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with damaging winds could occur as we get into mid-afternoon into early this evening..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands through 8 PM EDT..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 3 PM for a second round of thunderstorms with flash flooding and possibly isolated damaging wind potential. This will be the only coordination message on today’s threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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