Hello to all..

..Line of showers and thunderstorms will move through the area this morning with an isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorm possible with this activity but the main threat will be heavy downpours and brief flooding issues. This will be handled through SKYWARN Self-Activation..
..Once the morning activity moves through, clearing should allow for destabilization and the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to impact portions of Southern New England. Damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has upgraded much of the region to a Slight Risk for Severe Weather and NWS Taunton is in agreement..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely later this Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

At 640 AM, Doppler Radar showed an area of showers and thunderstorms traversing Southern New England. The main threat with this line are lightning strikes and heavy rainfall but an isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. This activity will be handled through SKYWARN Self-Activation.

Infrared satellite imagery shows clearing will take place behind this activity and as a trough approaches the area, this will set the stage for Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding being the main threats. The threat timeframe appears to be for mid to late afternoon through evening. SPC has upgraded much of Southern New England to a slight risk for severe weather and NWS Taunton is in agreement.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely later this Wednesday Afternoon into tonight. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England Wednesday Afternoon and Evening as warm and humid conditions combined with an upper level trough approaching the area combine to allow for this potential. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England. Warm and humid conditions will return to the area Wednesday. As an upper level trough approaches, cooling will take place aloft. This cooling aloft with warm and humid conditions will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. Possible mitigating factors to severe weather potential include the amount of cloud cover over the area that could mitigate heating and destabilization and the fact that winds aloft will be marginal. If sufficient heating occurs, the cooling aloft combined with the trigger from the pre-frontal trough should be able to overcome marginal winds aloft for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over Southern New England particularly in the interior.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be issued by 9 AM ET Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1208141719.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Severe Weather Outbreak and Flash Flood Event over Connecticut, South-Central Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts Friday Afternoon August 10th, 2012..
..NWS Taunton Forecasters have determined an EF1 Microburst occurred in Glastonbury, Connecituct and an EF1 Microburst occurred in Taunton, Massachusetts. In both areas, Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Reports were received in the areas of significant damage..
..A complex of storms known as a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) affected the region bringing damaging winds, heavy rain and flood/flash flooding to portions of the region..
..Any pictures of damage can be sent as a reply to this email or to kd1cy@comcast.net and credit will be given to the spotter for the pictures and shared with local/state/federal emergency management and the media unless otherwise indicated..
..A HUGE THANK YOU to all SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators who supported this severe weather outbreak event on Friday 8/10/12..
..Below is the updated NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, Rainfall Reports via the NWS Taunton Public Information Statement, Public Information Statements on the Micorbursts in Taunton, Mass and Glastonbury, CT and the raw storm report log..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lsr_8_10_12.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Glastonbury, CT Storm Survey Information:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_8_10_12_Glastonbury.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Taunton, Mass Storm Survey Information:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_8_10_12_Taunton.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Rainfall Reports:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_8_10_12_rainfall.txt

NWS Taunton Raw Amateur Radio Storm Report Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/storm_reports_8_10_12.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible again today across much of Southern New England. Damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the primary threats..
..Threat will again be contingnent on surface heating and in this scenario surface heating ahead of a cold front. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the region in a ‘See Text’, 5% severe weather probability citing concerns on extent of severe weather threat due to cloud cover. NWS Taunton is in agreement..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later this Saturday Afternoon and Evening..

Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England. At 815 AM, Doppler Radar showed an area of rain and possibly embedded thunderstorms tracking northeast and could affect Cape Cod and the Islands and possibly South Coastal Massachusetts during the morning hours. Satellite imagry shows cloud cover with some breaks over the remainder of Southern New England. As a cold front approaches, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could once again develop over much of Southern New England. Wind Shear profiles are sufficient to produce severe weather. The amount of heating is more of a concern today versus yesterday as there were more breaks in the cloud cover over the region yesterday. Nonetheless, an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm threat is possible with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the main threats. SPC has higlighted the area with a 5% ‘See Text’ Severe Weather probability and NWS Taunton is in agreement.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible today. This will likely be the only complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Severe Weather Outbreak and Flash Flood Event over Connecticut, South-Central Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts Friday Afternoon August 10th, 2012..
..NWS Taunton Forecasters will survey damage in Glastonbury, CT to determine the cause of damage in that area..
..A complex of storms known as a Mesosclae Convective Vortex (MCV) affected the region bringing damaging winds, heavy rain and flood/flash flooding to portions of the region..
..Any pictures of damage can be sent as a reply to this email or to kd1cy@comcast.net and credit will be given to the spotter for the pictures and shared with local/state/federal emergency management and the media unless otherwise indicated..
..Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, Rainfall Reports via Public Information Statement and the Survey Public Information Statement on Glastonbury, CT..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1208110152.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Glastonbury, CT Preliminary Storm Survey Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1208102339.nous41.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Rainfall Reports:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1208110143.nous41.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely today during the afternoon and evening with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding to possibly flash flooding being the main threats. The extent of the severe weather threat will be contingent on the amount of heating that takes place over the region..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather and NWS Taunton is in agreement..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely this Friday Afternoon and Evening..

At 735 AM, Doppler Radar showed an area of showers and thunderstorms over Eastern Pennsylvania and New York State and moving into parts of Eastern New York. This activity should continue moving north and then northeastward into Southern New England for later today. Satellite imagery shows some breaks in the cloud cover which allow for at least some heating and destablization to take place over the region. This will set the stage for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding to potentially flash flooding as the primary threats. The extent of the severe weather threat will be contingent on the amount of surface heating. If significant heating takes place, this could potentially allow for a more widespread severe weather threat. Less heating will mean a more isolated severe weather threat with more of a flash flood threat expected. Wind shear profiles are stronger today then they were yesterday and are conducive for some severe thunderstorm development if sufficient heating takes place. SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a Slight Risk for severe weather over much of interior Southern New England though some coastal areas are included.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely this Friday Afternoon and evening. This will likely be the only complete coordination message issued on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..The threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for this Thursday Afternoon and Evening has become less as dry air and lack of wind shear are expected to keep the coverage more isolated then thought Wednesday Evening. Nonetheless, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for later this afternoon and evening with the greatest threat in Western Massachusetts, Southwest New Hampsire and Western Connecticut..
..A greater threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms exists for both Friday and Saturday. Further information on the severe weather threats for this timeframe will be posted later today into Friday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely be utilized to cover any isolated thunderstorm threat for today. Ops are less likely for today but possible if thunderstorm coverage is greater than expected. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible both Friday and Saturday. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Thursday Afternoon and Evening Across interior Southern New England. Strong to Damaging Winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Thursday Afternoon and Evening..

Heat and humidity are returning into Southern New England. On Thursday, an impulse in the mid levels of the atmosphere ahead of a destablizing atmosphere will set the stage for the potential of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The main threat timeframe will be Thursday Afternoon and Evening and the threat area will be across interior Southern New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will follow by 9 AM Thursday Morning.

Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible for Sunday Afternoon and Evening across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has this area in a slight risk for severe weather..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from 2 PM this afternoon through Monday Morning for Cheshire County New Hampshire, Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Western Massachusetts and Hartford County Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely this Sunday Afternoon into Sunday Night..

Yesterday featured slow moving thunderstorms of an isolated to scattered variety across Northern Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire dumping rainfall of 1-3″ over those isolated to scattered areas resulting in flooding, some large hail and pockets of wind damage over the area. Also, lightning strikes caused fires in some communities the biggest of which was the total loss of the Rowe Elementary School in Rowe Massachusetts due to lightning. The NWS Taunton Local Storm Report and Public Information Statement from yesterday’s events are listed below:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1208042321.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1208050240.nous41.html

At 940 AM, Satellite images showed pockets of clearing over the area allowing for destablization across interior Southern New England. Doppler Radar shows a line of showers and thunderstorms moving into East-Central New York. It is unclear what this line of showers and thunderstorms will do and if they will strengthen as they approach the area as heating continues or weaken as they move toward us as they move farther away from more favorable winds aloft. This will be monitored over the course of the moring into early this afternoon. This line is associated with a pre-frontal trough that will move through the area.

Later this afternoon and tonight as the cold front approaches, another round of more intense thunderstorms are expected to develop across New York and Pennsylvania with favorable wind shear available with those storms along with some favorable instability parameters. This thunderstorms are expected to move into Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and West-Central Connecticut later this afternoon and tonight. This will set the stage for a round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from 2 PM Sunday through Monday Morning for Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely later this afternoon and tonight. This will be the only complete coordination message on this event. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Isolated to scattered strong to ‘pulse type’ severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon into early this evening across interior Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible anytime after Noon today..

A weakening cold front will be moving into Southern New England this afternoon and this evening before dissipating over the area. Wind fields are marginal for severe thunderstorm development, however with sufficient instability and forcing from the cold front, conditions appear to be sufficient for isolated to scattered strong to ‘pulse type’ severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across interior Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The threat timeframe appears to be anytime after Noon today.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this afternoon and evening. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s threat. Below is the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1 Convective Outlook and NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more