Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Sunday with the potential for a more widespread severe weather event for interior sections of Southern New England for Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and Urban/Poor Drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Storm Prediction Center and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Sunday Afternoon and Evening particularly over Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut but all areas should montior the situation. Timeframe looks to be towards mid to late Sunday afternoon and evening but could start as early as 1 PM..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

Sunday has the potential to be an active severe weather day in portions of interior Southern New England. While Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut are the highest areas of concern, areas to the east could also be affected depending on the timing of a very strong cold front sweeping through the area and the degree of destablization over the region.

Weather models are indicating more instability than previous runs concerning a potential severe weather event for Sunday. The key here will be the amount of sunshine through the day tomorrow and the amount of destablization. Wind shear profiles, as they have been on several events this summer, look very strong and favorable for severe weather. Cooling aloft is expected to occur similar in magnitude to Friday’s severe weather event but different from Friday’s severe weather event is the stronger winds aloft that are expected Sunday. Presuming enough heating and destablization can occur, this could lead to Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms or potential squall line formation over the region with damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor draiange flooding as the main threats. If there are more clouds and less destablization, the severe weather could be more isolated to scattered but with the amount of shear and cooling aloft presenting a low instability/high shear environment, there is still likely to be a few isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in this scenario as well.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Ops could start as early as 1 PM or as late as 3-4 PM. This will be adjusted Sunday Morning prior to the next coordination message which will be sent by 1130 AM Sunday. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Oulook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1108201723.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator           
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

The last hurricane to make a direct hit on Southern New England was Hurricane Bob on August 19th, 1991 and Friday marked the 20th Anniversary of Hurricane Bob’s landfall in the region. Hurricane Bob caused extensive damage in Southern New England from hurricane force winds and storm surge as well as from heavy rainfall and flooding. While it has been 20 years since the last hurricane to directly impact Southern New England as a hurricane, tropical systems have made their mark on New England during this period with tropical storm conditions and in some cases hurricane force wind gusts to parts of the region such as what occurred with Hurricane Edouard over Cape Cod and the Islands in September 1996 and Tropical Storm Bertha over much of the Southern New England coast in July 1996. Other tropical storms that had some impact on the region with heavy rainfall and tropical storm force winds included Tropical Storm Hannah in September 2008, Hurricane Floyd, which affected the region as a tropical storm in September 1999 and Tropical Storm Danny in July 1997. There have also been remnants of tropical systems over the years that have brought flooding and severe weather to the region.

While it has been 20 years since the last direct impact by a hurricane to Southern New England, we are approaching the peak of hurricane season. Now is the time to prepare for the new season. Even if a hurricane does not strike the region, you will be more prepared for any other weather related disaster scenarios that could occur during the winter or other timeframes.

To commemorate Hurricane Bob’s landfall on Southern New England, NWS Taunton issued a Public Information Statement concerning Hurricane Bob highlighting some of his impacts and that despite Bob’s significant hit to the area, he was not a major hurricane and the last major hurricane strike was Hurricane Carol in 1954. Below is the Public Information Statement commemorating the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Bob:

NOUS41 KBOX 191513
PNSBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-200241-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1112 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

…20 YEARS SINCE HURRICANE BOB HIT NEW ENGLAND…

THE LAST TIME THAT NEW ENGLAND TOOK A DIRECT HIT FROM A HURRICANE
WAS 20 YEARS AGO…ON AUGUST 19 1991…WHEN HURRICANE BOB HIT
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS BAD AS BOB WAS…IT WAS ONLY A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. THE LAST TIME THAT NEW ENGLAND WAS HIT BY
A MAJOR HURRICANE…CATEGORY 3…WAS IN 1954 WHICH IS 57 YEARS AGO.

HURRICANE BOB DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON AUGUST 16
1991…THEN STEADILY INTENSIFIED AND REACHED HURRICANE STATUS ON
THE EVENING OF AUGUST 17. BOB STRENGTHENED AND ACCELERATED
NORTHEASTWARD. THE EYE OF BOB PASSED OVER BLOCK ISLAND, RI AT
APPROXIMATELY 130 PM ON AUGUST 19 AND MADE LANDFALL OVER
NEWPORT, RI SHORTLY BEFORE 2 PM.

HURRICANE BOB BROUGHT SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF RHODE ISLAND AND MOST OF
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BLEW
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVING GUSTS
TO HURRICANE FORCE EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. WIND DAMAGE TO
TREES AND UTILITY POLES WAS COMMON AND RESULTED 60 PERCENT OF
RESIDENTS IN SOUTHEAST RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS
LOSING POWER. APPLE AND PEACH ORCHARDS THERE WERE EXTENSIVELY
DAMAGED.

COASTAL COMMUNITIES BORE THE BRUNT OF THE STORM WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 75 AND 100 MPH. GUSTS TO 125 MPH WERE RECORDED IN BREWSTER
AND NORTH TRURO ON CAPE COD…AND ALSO IN WETHERSFIELD CONNECTICUT.
THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND…OF 100 MPH…WAS RECORDED IN NORTH
TRURO. BLOCK ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 105 MPH WHICH WAS THE MAXIMUM SPEED OF THAT EQUIPMENT.
THERE WERE 4 REPORTS OF TORNADOES AS BOB CAME ASHORE. THE LOWEST
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE WAS RECORDED BY THE USS VALDEZ WHILE IN THE EAST
PASSAGE OF NARRAGANSETT BAY…WITH A READING OF 28.47. 

HURRICANE BOB CAUSED A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 8 FEET ALONG THE RHODE
ISLAND SHORE…BUT DROVE A SURGE OF 10 TO 15 FEET INTO BUZZARDS BAY.
THE HIGHEST SURGES…12 TO 15 FEET…WERE OBSERVED IN ONSET…
BOURNE…MASHPEE…AND WAREHAM AT THE HEAD OF BUZZARDS BAY.
COVE ROAD…IN MATTAPOISETT MASSACHUSETTS…HAD 29 OF 37 HOMES
DESTROYED WHILE ANGELICA POINT MASSACHUSETTS LOST 32 OF 35 HOMES
ALONG THE SHORE. BOAT DAMAGE WAS SIGNIFICANT WITH MANY BOATS TORN
FROM THEIR MOORINGS. SOME SOUTH FACING BEACHES ON MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET LOST UP TO 50 FEET OF BEACH DUE TO EROSION.

AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH NEW ENGLAND HURRICANES…HEAVY RAIN
WAS FOCUSED TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK OF THE STORM. 3 TO 7 INCHES OF
RAIN OCCURRED ACROSS ALL OF RHODE ISLAND EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION…WITH THE HIGHEST READING OF 7.01 INCHES IN FOSTER. LESS
THAN AN INCH OF RAIN OCCURRED ON CAPE COD TO THE EAST OF THE
TRACK…BUT THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST WINDS AND STORM SURGE OCCURRED.

BOB WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SIX DEATHS IN THE REGION…ALL IN
CONNECTICUT. TOTAL DAMAGE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WAS APPROXIMATELY
680 MILLION DOLLARS.

THIS INFORMATION WAS TAKEN FROM A PAPER ENTITLED “SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES, A NINETY-EIGHT YEAR SUMMARY
1909-1997″ BY DAVID R. VALLEE AND MICHAEL R. DION, NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE – TAUNTON, MA.

$$
FIELD

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator          
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening across much of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area, particularly interior areas. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..Threat will be in the form of strong thunderstorms to isolated pulse type severe thunderstorms over the region due to lack of strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely this afternoon and evening..

At 715 AM, satellite imagery showed mostly clear conditions with some patchy clouds that should burn off over parts of the region later this afternoon. This should allow for strong heating and destablization over the region. In addition, a cold pool of temperatures aloft should also support more destablization over the region. A mitigating factor for today will be the lack of strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Putting this all together, there will be isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms with a few isolated pulse type severe thunderstorms over the region with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely this afternoon and evening. This will be the last complete coordination message on this threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator          
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Friday Afternoon into the early evening across much of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area. Damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..Weak wind fields aloft should preclude a significant severe weather outbreak but cooler temperatures aloft combined with daytime heating may allow pulse type isolated severe thunderstorms along with strong thunderstorms to form over the area and be a bit more widespread than today when an isolated strong thunderstorm over Ashburnham Massachusetts dumped 1.5″ of rain in 30 minutes and produced pea sized hail..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Friday Afternoon into early evening. A more complete coordination message will be posted by 830 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..Flood Potential Increasing across portions of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area later this afternoon and tonight..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect through this evening for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Hillsborough County New Hampshire, Central and Eastern Massachusetts as well as Western Hampshire, Western Hampden, and Western Franklin Counties of Massachusetts. The Flood Watch is for urban areas and small streams in the region..
..Flood Advisories have been issued for portions of the area for urban and poor drainage flooding and more advisories could be issued throughout the day today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is possible to likely for later this afternoon and evening based on current trends on radar and spotter reports..

At 1135 AM, Doppler Radar showed widrespread moderate rainfall over much of the region with moderate to heavy rainfall over Rhode Island and Eastern Connecticut into Central Massachusetts. There is also a swath of heavy rainfall south and east of Long Island New York extending a couple hundred miles offshore funnelling into portions of Eastern Connecticut and Rhode Island. Widespread rainfall of 1-2″ has occurred with isolated 3 to 4″ rainfall amounts in the area. Some rainfall amounts as of 1050 AM as gathered from the Amateur Radio APRS and CWOP program are as follows:

Rainfall Reports 2″ or More as of Monday 8/15 at 1050 AM:
Charlestown, RI: 3.88″ (3.29″ of rain in 3 hours from 545 to 845 AM)
Westerly, RI: 2.79″
Canton, CT: 2.29″
Worcester, Mass: 2.26″
Hampton, CT: 2.11″
West Simsbury, CT: 2.04″

Rainfall Reports 2″ or More as of Monday 8/15 at 1050 AM:
Danielson, CT: 1.45″
Southington, CT: 1.91″
Berlin, CT: 1.88″
East Hartford, CT: 1.36″
Hebron, CT: 1.19″
Sturbridge, Mass: 1.03″
Goshen, Mass: 1.06″
Easthampton, Mass: 1.31″
Auburn, Mass: 1.12″
Coventry, RI: 1.69″

With the potential for flooding increased, SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely for later this afternoon into this evening. This will likely be the last complete coordination message on this event. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement, Flood Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flood Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator          
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..Strong Storm System will bring another round of Heavy Rainfall to Southern New England, particularly in portions of Western New England..
..A Flood Watch is in effect from Midnight Tonight through Monday Evening for Western Hampshire, Western Hampden and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts. Areas outside of the flood watch area particularly in the remainder of Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut would have the potential for urban/poor drainage flooding depending on the axis of heavy rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be utilized for rainfall reports meeting SKYWARN Reporting criteria and any flooding. Ops at NWS Taunton may be utilized if the threat for flooding becomes more widespread..

At 430 PM, Doppler Radar has shown rainfall over Connecticut and extending into portions of Western and Central Massachusetts and Western Rhode Island. Heavier Rainfall has occurred over the New York City and Long Island area into New Jersey. Some locations received almost 8″ of rainfall in Nassau County New York.

Rainfall of the magnitude over Long Island New York is not expected in the NWS Taunton County Warning Area, however, widespread 1-3″ rainfall is expected over much of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area especially in Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut with amounts of 2-4″ of Rain expected over Western Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western Franklin Counties where a Flood Watch is in effect from Midnight tonight through Monday Evening. In the flood watch area, urban/poor drainage flooding and river/stream flooding are the main threats. Areas just outside of the flood watch particularly in Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut may see urban/poor drainage flooding but less likely to see river and stream flooding. Urban areas of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island may also have urban/poor drianage flooding depending on the amount of rainfall and the timeframe with which the rainfall falls.

SKYWARN Self-Activation to monitor for rainfall reports meeting SKYWARN reportable crtieria and any flooding is the most likely way for this storm to be handled. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if the threat for flooding is more widespread. This will be the only coordination message on this event unless the threat for flooding increases. If the threat increases, another coordination message will be issued Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator          
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening with a secondary cold front and cooler air aloft as the atmosphere destabilizes later this morning into the afternoon over much of the region. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Threat timeframe still appears to be after 4 PM, however, radar trends will need to be monitored in case the threat is a bit earlier than expected due to activity in Central New York currently moving slowly eastward..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely later this afternoon and this evening..

Overnight, heavy rainfall affected portions of Northwest Connecticut, Central and Northeast Massachusetts and Southeast New Hampshire with widespread 1-3″ rainfall with slightly higher amounts over this area. This may have resulted in urban flooding during the overnight hours.

Satellite imagery shows clearing moving in over Western Massachusetts, Connecticut, parts of Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts with mostly clear conditions over Eastern New York State. This clearing should move into Central Massachusetts and the remainder of Eastern Massachusetts later this morning. Doppler Radar is showing some scattered heavy shower and possible isolated thunderstorm activity over Central New York just east of the Finger Lakes moving slowly eastward. This activity will need to be monitored to see if it organizes and picks up speed as wind shear profiles increase over the area.

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible for much of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area as we get into later this afternoon and evening. Cooling aloft and sufficient wind shear profiles with likely heating and destablization given current satellite imagery showing clearing moving in the area are supporting factors to isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity. A possible limiting factor will be drying and a drop of the dewpoints. That situation occurred last Tuesday August 2nd and limited the severe weather potential though isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms did occur on that day over Eastern Massachusetts. Threat timeframe looks to be after 4 PM today though an earlier start time will need to be monitored depending on the activity in Central New York State east of the Finger Lakes.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely today. This will be the last complete coordination message on this threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator          
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday Afternoon and Evening over the NWS Taunton County Warning Area particularly interior locations. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Threat timeframe will be after 4 PM Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
..Threat will be determined on atmosphere destablization after rain overnight into Wednesday Morning moves out of the area and the location of a cold air pool aloft over the region. Wind Shear profiles would be favorable for severe weather if sufficient destablization occurs..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on Wednesday. A more complete coordination message will be posted by 830 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator          
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton has commenced for potential severe weather development over Southeast New Hampshire, Central and Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Damaging Winds and Large Hail are the primary threats. This will be the last coordination message on today’s event. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement highlighting today’s potential..

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1108021424.wwus81.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator          
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely today across Southeast New Hampshire, Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded Southeast New Hampshire, Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island to a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Today and NWS Taunton is in agreement. Western areas may see an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm but the main threat for today should be in Eastern New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely today anytime after Noon today..

Satellite imagery shows clear skies over the region this morning. The Cold front remains back into Eastern New York and because of its slower movement, this resulted in most of the severe weather being in Western New England on Monday and will set the stage for a second day of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The main threat for today should be over Southeast New Hampshire, Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island where NWS Taunton and SPC are in agreement on a Slight Risk for severe weather today. An isolated strong or severe thunderstorm or two could occur in Western parts of the NWS Taunton County Warning area depending on the movement of the front and how quickly it moves into the area. If its more towards early afternoon, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible but if its more toward morning, this should reduce the threat in western areas. Temperatures aloft will remain cold and wind shear profiles will be stronger today than yesterday. Instability will not be quite as high as yesterday due to lower dewpoints but the cold pool aloft along with stronger wind shear profiles will compensate for somewhat lower instability today. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding will be the primary threats.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime after noon today. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator          
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more