Storm Coordination Message #2 – Remnants of Andrea – Friday 6/7/13-Saturday AM 6/8/13 Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..Remnants of Andrea/Post-Tropical Andrea are still expected to bring Significant Rainfall to Much of Southern New England with the threat for urban and poor drainage flooding and the possibility of minor river and stream flooding. Strong Wind Gusts are possible in Southeast Coastal Massachusetts as well..
..A Flood Watch remains in effect from Noon Friday through Saturday Morning for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands. Widespread rainfall of 2-4 inches are likely with isolated higher amounts in the 4-5 inch range and possibly more over parts of the Flood Watch area..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Nantucket Island from Midnight to 10 AM Saturday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 400 PM EDT Friday to monitor the storm..

At 800 AM, Tropical Storm Andrea is over South Carolina after making landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida late Thursday Afternoon. Andrea is expected to transition to a non-tropical system over the next 12-18 hours as it moves northeast towards Southern New England. National Hurricane Center Advisory information on Andrea can be seen via the following links:

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Andrea Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Andrea Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Andrea Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Andrea Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

The remnants of Andrea will combine with a frontal system and have the potential to give much of Southern New England widespread significant rainfall. Rainfall amounts have been adjusted a bit higher with 2-4″ now expected over much of the region with higher amounts of 4-5″ and possibly a few spot amounts over 5″ over some portion of the area. The exact track of the storm will determine where any axis of heavy rainfall sets up. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from Noon Friday through Saturday Morning. Urban and poor drainage flooding is the primary threat but some minor river and stream flooding could also develop particularly if the higher end rainfall amounts verify.

Strong wind gusts will be possible over portions of Cape Cod and the Islands and possibly Southeast Coastal Massachusetts. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Nantucket Island from Midnight to 10 AM Saturday for sustained winds of 20-25 MPH with gusts up to 45 MPH.  Wind Advisories could also be extended into other parts of Cape Cod and the Island and Southeast Coastal Massachusetts depending on the track of the storm and the strength of the wind field. With the wet soil conditions due to the rainfall and the potential for strong wind gusts, isolated pockets of tree and wire damage may occur on Cape Cod and the Islands.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 400 PM EDT Friday to monitor the heavy rainfall and flood potential and strong wind potential from this system. Operations could extend into part of the overnight hours depending on the extent of any potential flooding. This will be the last coordination message on this event as we move into Ops mode later today. Below are the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement, Wind Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Remnants of Andrea – Friday 6/7/13-Saturday AM 6/8/13 Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..Remnants of Andrea/Post-Tropical Andrea are expected to bring Significant Rainfall to Much of Southern New England with the threat for urban and poor drainage flooding and the possibility of minor river and stream flooding. Strong Wind Gusts are possible in Southeast Coastal Massachusetts as well..
..A Flood Watch is in effect from Friday Afternoon through Saturday Morning for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands. Widespread rainfall of 2-3 inches are likely with isolated higher amounts up to 4″ and possibly more over parts of the Flood Watch area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 400 PM EDT Friday to monitor the storm..

At 1145 PM, Tropical Storm Andrea is over the Southeast United States after making landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida earlier today. Andrea is expected to transition to a non-tropical system over the next 12-24 hours as it moves northeast towards Southern New England. National Hurricane Center Advisory information on Andrea can be seen via the following links:

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Andrea Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Andrea Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Andrea Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Andrea Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

The remnants of Andrea will combine with a frontal system and have the potential to give much of Southern New England widespread significant rainfall with 2-3″ expected over much of the region with higher amounts of 3-4″ with isolated higher amounts over some portion of the area. The exact track of the storm will determine where any axis of heavy rainfall sets up. A Flood Watch is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from Friday Afternoon through Saturday Morning.

Strong wind gusts will be possible over portions of Cape Cod and the Islands and possibly Southeast Coastal Massachusetts. This will depend on the track and intensity of the storm system and will be monitored for future coordination messages. With the wet soil conditions due to the rainfall and the potential for strong wind gusts, isolated pockets of tree and wire damage may occur on Cape Cod and the Islands.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 400 PM EDT Friday to monitor the heavy rainfall and flood potential and strong wind potential from this system. Another coordination message will be issued by 830 AM Friday Morning. Below are the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Sunday June 2nd, 2013 Potential Severe Weather Event

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely particularly over Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut during the afternoon and evening. Damaging Winds, large Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continuing a Slight Risk for Severe Weather in these areas. Areas to the east should monitor as an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm threat is possible eventually evolving into an urban and poor drainage flooding later Sunday into Monday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at Noon today..

At 945 AM, Satellite imagery shows clear skies over much of interior Southern New England. This will allow for significant heating and destabilization during the entire day across much of the interior. Satellite imagery shows the prefrontal trough and cold front across Central and Western New York moving east-northeastward with southwest wind flow ahead of the front. The frontal timing will be the key to the extent of severe weather over the region today. Based on current model projections and trends, the most likely area for severe weather is over the current SPC Slight Risk area from Southern New Hampshire into Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut. In this area, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The severe thunderstorms will likely involve a couple short lines or possibly a squall line of activity. An Isolated supercell or two is possible before the activity involves into short lines or a single squall line of activity. Areas to the east should continue to monitor as an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible and if the trough and front pushes into the area a bit more quickly with heating over the area, more numerous strong to severe thunderstorms could occur in this area. As we get past sunset, the situation could evolve into more garden variety thunderstorms but could pose a flood threat to urban and poor drainage areas if the activity slows and tracks/trains over the same area and this will be monitored as well.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at Noon today. This will be the last coordination message on activity for Sunday. If a thunderstorm threat for flooding or possibly isolated severe weather evolves into Monday, another coordination message for Monday may be issued. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Special Announcement: Start of Atlantic Hurricane Season 2013

Hello to all..

Today, Saturday June 1st, 2013, marks the start of the 2013 Atlantic Season. The Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, WX4NHC, Communications Test was completed today and was very successful with over 50 contacts made on the *WX_TALK* Echolink conference node: 7203/IRLP 9219 system and dozens more contacts made by HF/VHF/UHF. Thanks to all stations that participated in the communications test.

Also, on the National Hurricane Center web site, WD4R-Julio Ripoll, Assistant WX4NHC Coordinator was featured in the monthly National Hurricane Center Q&A web series. This can be seen at the following link:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/qa/201306_julio_ripoll.php

Now is the time to prepare for Hurricane Season. Even if a hurricane or tropical system does not affect our area, it will make you more prepared for future seasons. Also note that strong tropical storms and in particular strong and large tropical storms can pack as much power as some Category-1 hurricanes.

Below are the NWS Taunton Public Information Statement announcing the Start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season for 2013 and the 800 AM National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook which lists information on the 2013 Hurricane Names as well as the products that the National Hurricane Center prior to and as storms form over the Atlantic basin:

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Start of 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/start_of_hurr_season_2013_June_1.txt

National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook and Tropical System Names and NHC Products Overview:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/two_at_nhc_june_1_2013.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday June 2nd, 2013 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Slow moving Cold Front will bring an end to the heat and humidity late Sunday Afternoon into Monday and set the stage for the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. Greatest threat will be across Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut after 2 PM Sunday Afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this region in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Sunday. Areas outside of the slight risk area should monitor as well..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely and are tentatively expected to commence at 2 PM Sunday Afternoon lasting through late evening..

A slow moving cold front is expected to move into New York and New England over the course of Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Heating and destabilization are expected to occur across interior Southern New England as the cold front enters the region with most destabilization parameters being favorable. Shear profiles will be favorably strong and combine with heating for the development for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. Caveats to the severe weather threat include the timing of the cold front to provide the trigger and lift for strong to severe thunderstorm development and that sufficient heating can occur over interior areas of Southern New England. The greatest threat area for severe weather is across Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut after 2 PM Sunday Afternoon. SPC has placed the region in a slight risk for severe weather. Areas outside of the slight risk area should monitor for a more isolated strong to severe thunderstorm event and the potential for thunderstorms that may cause pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely and are tentatively expected to commence at 2 PM Sunday Afternoon lasting through late evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Sunday Morning. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1306011725.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Special Announcement: Remembering the June 1st, 2011 Massachusetts Tornado Outbreak – 2nd Anniversary

Hello to all..

We have reached the second-year anniversary of a historic day in Southern New England Weather History. The June 1st, 2011 Massachusetts Tornado Outbreak will be a day long remembered in weather history. This announcement recaps the tornado outbreak and the lessons learned that apply today. This message is leveraged from the one-year anniversary message with some updates to include a video collage of the June 1st, 2011 Massachusetts tornado outbreak as well as other updates.

The June 1st, 2011 event was forecasted by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman Oklahoma as far as 5 days out. This is very rare for New England to be in a convective outlook past 3 days. The outlook of ‘Slight Risk’ for severe weather would continue right up through June 1st. As we got into June 1st, a fast moving area of rapidly developing severe thunderstorms ahead of the warm front affected portions of Southern New Hampshire and Northeast Massachusetts producing large hail. These storms quickly moved out of area and were a sign of things to come and how explosive the atmosphere was on June 1st. Abundant sunshine and rapid heating and destabilization coupled with extremely strong wind shear values, set the stage for a historic major severe weather outbreak in Massachusetts and other parts of New England. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma issued a Mesoscale Convective Discussion highlighting the need for Tornado Watches for much of New York and New England. The Tornado Watches would be issued and supercell severe thunderstorms would move into Southern New England.

Initially the supercells produced very large hail including hail slightly over 4″ in diameter in East Windsor Massachusetts, Berkshire County, which may potentially set the new record for the commonwealth as far as hail size but no tornadic or wind damage activity through 400 PM. This is when the supercell began to take shape in Western Hampden County Massachusetts and set the stage for the large, long track EF-3 Tornado that traversed the area from Westfield to Charlton Massachusetts for a 39-mile long damage path and was on the ground for 70 minutes. Three smaller tornadoes occurred in Western and Central Massachusetts from additional supercells moving through the area. Another area of supercells went through Northern Worcester County into Middlesex and Suffolk Counties producing Golf Ball Sized hail and pockets of wind damage all the way into the Metro Boston area.

June 1st, 2011 underscored how important Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters are to the warning process and how the timely severe weather reporting can not only help the warning process but can also help saves lives. The near real-time reporting of the large EF-3 tornado touchdown with initial preliminary reports in Westfield, the actual spotting of the EF3 Tornado by Western Massachusetts SKYWARN Coordinator, Ray Weber-KA1JJM, and the amazing remote webcam footage from WWLP-TV channel 22 in Springfield Massachusetts helped to tell people that not only was this a radar detected tornado but that it was definitely on the ground and doing significant damage. It is quite likely that many lives were saved by this near realtime reporting of the tornado being on the ground.

Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets were active on several Amateur Radio Repeaters including the 146.940-Mount Tom Repeater run by the Mount Tom Amateur Radio Club and with Amateur Radio members and SKYWARN Spotters from the Hampden County Radio Association also reporting into the net. The 146.970-Paxton Repeater run by the Central Massachusetts Amateur Radio Club was active for several hours as well. Both repeaters providing significant near realtime reporting for situational awareness and disaster intelligence purposes not only to the media but also to local, state and federal emergency management officials. The Amateur Radio Internet Radio Linking Project (IRLP)/Echolink system on the echolink conference *NEW-ENG* node 9123/IRLP 9123 was also active with liaisons from various Amateur Radio nets reporting into the network. While not in the NWS Taunton County Warning Area, the 146.910-Mount Greylock Repeater was active with Berkshire County SKYWARN as run by Rick-WA1ZHM with Walt-N1DQU providing information from the net into NWS Taunton. Net Controls for the 146.940 Mount Tom Net were Bob Meneguzzo-K1YO and for the 146.970 Paxton Net, John Ruggiero-N2YHK. N9SC-Steve Craven provided a critical liaison link from the 146.970-Paxton Repeater Net to the 146.940-Mount Tom Net during the tornadic outbreak. Many Amateur Radio Operators and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters reported severe weather conditions despite being at risk from these powerful supercells. We are forever grateful for the reporting that helped save lives. The outpouring of damage assessment pictures and videos and reports near and after the event was unprecedented. This clearly helped Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), local and state emergency management perform their duties to try and bring as many resources to bear on the significant path of destruction carved out by the tornado outbreak.

For the victims, today is likely a painful reminder of what occurred and what loses they face and in some cases are still recovering from in terms of property damage and possibly lives lost. Our thoughts and prayers remain to all those people that are affected and we hope that they’re recovery will complete as soon as possible.

For those not impacted by such a significant event as June 1st and not impacted severely by the likes of Irene, Sandy, the February 2013 Blizzard and Snowtober over the past 2 years, this is a reminder that we must all be prepared for these significant weather situations that occur at low frequency but can be with high impact. The more self-sufficient and prepared we are, the easier the situation will be if we are faced with such a significant scenario if it comes our way and potentially occurs in a more widespread way. For those SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators who have not witnessed such severe weather, this is why we train and prepare because we never know the hour or day where a critical severe weather report can help the warning process and save lives.

On a personal level, we never want severe weather like this to happen but if it has to happen, the level of commitment, support and reporting of the situation in near realtime on June 1st with a high level of precision and quality but also in the quantity that the reports came through in our network is a testament to all of you for remaining dedicated and supportive of the National Weather Service SKYWARN program. It is an honor and a privilege for myself and many of our Amateur Radio SKYWARN Coordinators across the NWS Taunton County Warning Area to serve as leaders of the program and we appreciate everything you do, as without all of you, we wouldn’t have the SKYWARN program we have today in our region. Having been the leader of the program for 17 years, this was our finest hour in supporting the NWS Taunton office and saving lives and it couldn’t have been done without all of your support.

We hope this remembrance makes people never forget what happened on June 1st 2011 and remind ourselves again that we must remain, prepared and vigilant especially here in New England where events such as June 1st can happen but on a low frequency basis. A June 1st 2011 video collage has been posted at our SKYWARN video page at video.nsradio.org with recordings of some of the Amateur Radio reports that came in through the network. Below is the NWS Taunton – Massachusetts Tornado Summary, the ARRL Story on the June 1st Tornado Outbreak, the NWS Taunton June 1st Local Storm Report and the Raw Storm log from the WX1BOX Amateur Radio Station.

NWS Taunton Massachusetts Tornado Summary:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/sigevents/jun01_2011_summary.php

NWS Taunton Local Storm Reports 6/1/11:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lsr_6_1_11.txt

ARRL Story from 6/1/11 – Central Massachusetts Experiences Rare Tornado, Area Hams Hasten to Help:
http://www.arrl.org/news/central-massachusetts-experiences-rare-tornado-area-hams-hasten-to-help

NWS Taunton-WX1BOX Raw Amateur Radio Storm Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/storm_reports.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday May 29th, 2013 Potential Severe Weather Event

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possibly to likely today across Southern New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Connecticut in the mid to late afternoon timeframe. Damaging winds, large hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Isolated supercells are possible. The threat timeframe is from approximately 2-9 PM today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM EDT today lasting through early evening..

At 905 AM, Doppler Radar indicated an area of showers moving off the south coast of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts with another area of rain racing eastward from Central and Eastern New York that will move through Southern New England over the next 2-3 hours. Behind this area of rain, Satellite imagery as of 900 AM shows an expanding area of clearing that should move into the area. Presuming this clearing area moves over the area as modeled to allow for sufficient heating and destabilization, it will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of Southern New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Connecticut in the mid to late afternoon timeframe as wind shear profiles are sufficient for severe weather development. Damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats with isolated supercells possible.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM EDT today lasting through early evening. This will most likely be the last complete coordination message on this threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday May 29th, 2013 Potential Severe Weather Event

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible Wednesday Afternoon to Evening across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, and urban/poor-drainage flooding are the primary threats with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) placing this region in a slight risk for severe weather with the timeframe anytime between Noon and 9 PM. There is also a more limited severe weather threat with possible urban/poor drainage flooding issues with a complex of storms associated with the warm front currently evolving over Western New York and Western Pennsylvania..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the complex of showers and thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

At 905 PM, Doppler Radar shows a complex of showers and thunderstorms associated with the warm front with heavy rainfall and even an isolated severe weather threat over Western New York and Western Pennsylvania. This activity will move through Southern New England overnight into Wednesday Morning. The threat for any severe weather with this feature is limited but cannot be entirely ruled out. There is a slightly higher risk of urban and poor drainage flooding than severe weather with this complex.

As this activity moves out of the area Wednesday Morning, the question will become how much heating and destabilization can occur behind the warm front across Southern New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Connecticut with good shear profiles in place as the warm front moves through this area and slows over Eastern New England. If sufficient heating and destabilization can occur with the wind shear profiles in place, it will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The threat timeframe is between Noon and 9 PM and the Storm Prediction Center has placed this area in a slight risk for severe weather.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the complex of showers and thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be issued by 10 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1305281721.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Special Announcement: Storm Behavior in New England Presentation by David Vallee – Hydrologist-In-Charge of the Northeast River Forecast Center – Thursday 5/30/13 at 700 PM at North Providence RI Public Library

Hello to all..

Northeast River Forecast Center Hydrologist-In-Charge, David Vallee, will be giving a presentation on “Storm Behavior in New England – The Times They Are Changing”, Thursday May 30th, 2013 at 700 PM at the North Providence Public Library, 1810 Mineral Spring Avenue, North Providence RI. Details on the presentation can be seen below:

Much of New England has been experiencing an increasing trend in annual average temperature and annual average precipitation over the past two decades.   During this same time period, the region has experienced an increasing number of moderate to major flood episodes, capped off locally by the devastating floods of 2010.  Then, as if that wasn’t enough, two powerful tropical cyclones; Tropical Storm Irene and Hurricane Sandy struck the region producing a combination of flooding rains, widespread wind damage and devastating coastal flooding. 

These significant weather events have been associated with a variety of storm types and have affected the region at different times of the year.  The common thread in many of these episodes was the ability of each storm system to tap a tropical moisture source resulting in intense often slow moving systems capable of producing heavy rainfall.  For Irene and Sandy, one classic New England Tropical Cyclone and one “Hybrid-type” storm, both displayed nature’s awesome power of wind and water.  Irene featuring widespread wind damage over the Ocean State and Sandy provided a stark reminder of the increasing vulnerability of our coastline in the face of sea level rise.

North Providence RI Public Library link on the presentation:
http://www.nplib.com/2013/05/storm-behavior-in-new-england/

The presentation is free and open to the public. It is noted that this presentation is on the same date as the SKYWARN Training class in New Braintree, Massachusetts for those who may be interested in this presentation but committed to the SKYWARN Training Class in New Braintree, Mass.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1A – Thursday May 23rd, 2013 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 3 PM to monitor strong to severe thunderstorm potential. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Mesoscale Convective Discussion indicating a watch possible for portions of Southern New England. Also, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for South Coastal Rhode Island from 6-9 PM EDT due to a high spring tide and southwest winds pushing water into the bay causing possible minor coastal flooding in this area. Below is the Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Convective Discussion, NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0779.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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