Hello to all..

..The threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for this Thursday Afternoon and Evening has become less as dry air and lack of wind shear are expected to keep the coverage more isolated then thought Wednesday Evening. Nonetheless, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for later this afternoon and evening with the greatest threat in Western Massachusetts, Southwest New Hampsire and Western Connecticut..
..A greater threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms exists for both Friday and Saturday. Further information on the severe weather threats for this timeframe will be posted later today into Friday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely be utilized to cover any isolated thunderstorm threat for today. Ops are less likely for today but possible if thunderstorm coverage is greater than expected. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible both Friday and Saturday. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Thursday Afternoon and Evening Across interior Southern New England. Strong to Damaging Winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Thursday Afternoon and Evening..

Heat and humidity are returning into Southern New England. On Thursday, an impulse in the mid levels of the atmosphere ahead of a destablizing atmosphere will set the stage for the potential of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The main threat timeframe will be Thursday Afternoon and Evening and the threat area will be across interior Southern New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will follow by 9 AM Thursday Morning.

Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible for Sunday Afternoon and Evening across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has this area in a slight risk for severe weather..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from 2 PM this afternoon through Monday Morning for Cheshire County New Hampshire, Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Western Massachusetts and Hartford County Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely this Sunday Afternoon into Sunday Night..

Yesterday featured slow moving thunderstorms of an isolated to scattered variety across Northern Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire dumping rainfall of 1-3″ over those isolated to scattered areas resulting in flooding, some large hail and pockets of wind damage over the area. Also, lightning strikes caused fires in some communities the biggest of which was the total loss of the Rowe Elementary School in Rowe Massachusetts due to lightning. The NWS Taunton Local Storm Report and Public Information Statement from yesterday’s events are listed below:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1208042321.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1208050240.nous41.html

At 940 AM, Satellite images showed pockets of clearing over the area allowing for destablization across interior Southern New England. Doppler Radar shows a line of showers and thunderstorms moving into East-Central New York. It is unclear what this line of showers and thunderstorms will do and if they will strengthen as they approach the area as heating continues or weaken as they move toward us as they move farther away from more favorable winds aloft. This will be monitored over the course of the moring into early this afternoon. This line is associated with a pre-frontal trough that will move through the area.

Later this afternoon and tonight as the cold front approaches, another round of more intense thunderstorms are expected to develop across New York and Pennsylvania with favorable wind shear available with those storms along with some favorable instability parameters. This thunderstorms are expected to move into Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and West-Central Connecticut later this afternoon and tonight. This will set the stage for a round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from 2 PM Sunday through Monday Morning for Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely later this afternoon and tonight. This will be the only complete coordination message on this event. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Isolated to scattered strong to ‘pulse type’ severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon into early this evening across interior Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible anytime after Noon today..

A weakening cold front will be moving into Southern New England this afternoon and this evening before dissipating over the area. Wind fields are marginal for severe thunderstorm development, however with sufficient instability and forcing from the cold front, conditions appear to be sufficient for isolated to scattered strong to ‘pulse type’ severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across interior Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The threat timeframe appears to be anytime after Noon today.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this afternoon and evening. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s threat. Below is the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1 Convective Outlook and NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

The following is a Public Information Statement issued by NWS Taunton regarding an EF0 Tornado that was confirmed in the Manomet section of Plymouth, Mass. on Tuesday July 24th 2012. Below is that statement:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_7_30_12.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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This is to inform users of the Plymouth G.A.R.S. “685” repeater will be out of service for a general checkup.  The repeater will be shut down on Wednesday August 1, 2012 and hopefully returned to general amateur use on the following Tuesday August 7, ready for the weekly net.

The repeater trustee’s will notify the G.A.R.S. if the repeater has any problems.  If a skywarn activation is needed use one of the other local repeaters for information.  You can check on line with the New England Repeater Directory or the SKYWARN Frequency listing on the wx1box.org web site.

73

John, KB1EVY
Kevin, K1KOD

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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible across Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut through Southwest New Hampshire along with attendant localized Flash Flood Threat. Due to these conditions, SKYWARN Activation and Ops at NWS Taunton are now active. See NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion links below..

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1630.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Slow moving thundestorms across Western New England may bring the threat of flash flooding to portions of that region. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm may also be possible with strong to damaging winds as the main threat..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Cheshire County New Hampshire, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts and Hartford County Connecticut from Noon today through late tonight..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this afternoon and tonight for flash flood and isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential..

Satellite imagery shows clouds with some breaks in the clouds over portions of Western New England and Eastern New York with showers and embedded thunderstorms in West-Central New York per Doppler Radar. With enough sunny breaks, the atmosphere should destabilize and this should allow thunderstorms to develop. Due to weak low level winds, they will be slow moving meaning thunderstorms would have the potential to produce heavy rainfall in a short period of time as the main threat over localized areas. There are some stronger winds higher up in the atmosphere so if a thunderstorm could intensify sufficiently an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm could occur with strong to damaging winds as a secondary threat but the main threat from thunderstorms today is heavy rainfall and flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch has been posted for Cheshire County New Hampshire, Franklin, Hampden and Hampshire counties of Western Massachusetts and Hartford County of North-Central Connecticut from Noon today through late tonight. The east slopes of the Berkshires could have the greatest risk of flash flooding but all of the Flash Flood Watch area has potential. At this time, eastern portions of the NWS Taunton coverage area should not see any significant thunderstorm activity causing any flash flood issues.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this afternoon and evening. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..Severe Weather Threat for the region has been greatly reduced. Reasons for lack of severe weather over the area were due to the warm frontal position not moving far enough north to allow the storm complex to track into Southern New England and the complex dove further southeast to the New York City area and Southern Connecticut. While clearing occurred over Western New England to allow for instability, the greater instability remained south of our region causing the severe weather threat to be south of the region as the complex of storms moved further south towards the area of greater instability. These caveats were mentioned in the coordination messages issued previously..
..Overnight tonight, heavy rain and some embedded thunderstorms will occur across much of the area. There is a low possibility that an isolated strong or severe thunderstorm or two but nothing as widespread as originally indicated. A Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect through Friday Morning for the area of moderate to heavy rainfall that could cause some flooding issues over the area..
..SKYWARN Amateur Radio Operations at NWS Taunton will likely secure by 930-1000 PM. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement..

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..Potentially significant severe weather outbreak remains likely for much of Southern New England Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Moderate Rick for Severe Weather for portions of Western New England with the remainder of Southern New England in a high-end slight risk for severe weather. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out particularly in the moderate risk area. NWS Taunton is in agreement with this threat..
..The severe weather threat timeframe timing remains similar to last night with the threat beginning after 3-4 PM for western areas and after 5-6 PM for eastern areas. It is noted that activity could last well into the evening and overnight hours..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 2 PM ET Thursday through late evening Thursday/early morning Friday..
..ARES/RACES Groups should closely monitor the progress of this situation and seek advice from their local leadership..

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Moderate Rick for Severe Weather for portions of Western New England with the remainder of Southern New England in a high-end slight risk for severe weather. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out particularly in the moderate risk area. NWS Taunton is in agreement with this threat.

Reviewing computer models, radar and satellite data this morning, the warm front is moving across the region and will migrate northeastward past much of the NWS Taunton coverage area later this morning into midday. A weakening Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) is tracking over Eastern New York and will be responsible for showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm this morning particularly in Western New England. No severe weather is expected with this system. Initially, there will be cloud debris with this system that could last until midday/early afternoon Thursday.

All computer weather models are insistent on clearing out the region enough for heating and destabilization. Shear profiles will be very strong given the proximity of the warm front over the region and will allow for turning in the atmosphere. As this occurs, this will allow for scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. The threat timeframe remains similar to last night and will be after 3-4 PM in western parts of the area and after 5-6 PM in eastern parts of the area. Activity will last well into the evening hours Thursday into early Friday Morning. The potential is there for a significant/major severe weather outbreak for much of the region based on the location of the Moderate risk and high-end slight risk areas.

As always with severe weather scenarios, there are risks/caveats to the forecast for a significant outbreak particularly in New England and remember that isolated to scattered areas of significant issues typically occur in these scenarios meaning not all areas get hit. From a risks/caveats to the forecast point of view, there are two main caveats:

1.) Cloud debris doesn’t thin out as models predict holding back instability parameters and strength and/or coverage of severe weather.

2.) The position of the warm front doesn’t migrate as far northeast as current model trends indicate keeping portions of the region cooler. This is a less likely concern at this time.

Latest model trends and radar/sattelite data continue to indicate fairly strong indicators for a significant severe weather outbreak and this has led to the continuation of the rare issuance of a ‘moderate risk’ severe weather area for Western New England and a ‘high end slight risk’ severe weather area for the remainder of Southern New England in the 0600z Day-1 Convective Outlook.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 2 PM ET Thursday through late evening Thursday/early morning Friday. ARES/RACES Groups should closely monitor the progress of this situation and seek advice from their local leadership. This will be the last coordination message on this potentially significant severe weather outbreak. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and SPC Public Severe Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Public Severe Weather Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more