Hello to all..

..In Coordination with NWS Taunton, SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1130 AM ET this morning. It is noted that most of the severe weather activity will likely be in the late afternoon and evening but could start as early as midday so the activation is being done earlier in the day for that contingenecy..
..It is noted that the Storm Prediction Center has increased the probabilities for severe weather over western portions of the region and has expanded the slight risk area further east through interior Rhode Island and interior Eastern Massachusetts north and west of the I-95 corridor which aligns with NWS Taunton thinking of the severe weather situation..
..This will be the last coordination message for Tuesday’s severe weather event. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Overnight, nocturnal severe weather affected portions of Northeast New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Southern Maine, as lack of triggering over Southern New England and ridging over the area precluded severe weather over Southern New England and the NWS Taunton Coverage Area..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely today over Southern New Hampshire, Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, Northwest Rhode Island and Northern Connecticut this afternoon into tonight. Damaging Winds, large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. NWS Taunton and the Storm Prediction Center are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather today over the region..
..Threat timeframe is most likely late this afternoon into Tuesday Evening but could start up as early as midday today as a cold front approaches the region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton likely this Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night..

At 700 AM, Doppler Radar showed isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over Northeast New York, North-Central Vermont, Northern New Hampshire and Southern Maine. This activity should remain north of the NWS Taunton coverage area through the morning hours. Radar also showed activity in Indiana, Ohio and over Lake Erie moving eastward. Satellite images showed clear skies over much of New York and West-Central Southern New England with low clouds over Eastern New England. The lack of a trigger and ridging over Southern New England precluded severe weather development despite a very unstable atmosphere overnight Monday. Also, better shear profiles remained north of Southern New England though shear over Southern New England would’ve been sufficient to produce severe weather if it we’re not for the lack of trigger and the ridging that was in place overnight in our region.

As we get into the day today, the ridging that forced the convection north of the area will breakdown as a cold front approaches. Ample heating and destablization will take place. The cold front will serve as a triggering mechanism and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should organize into a squall line or one or two short lines of storms and should organize further south across Central and Eastern New York and spread into Western and Central New England. The current timeframe for the NWS Taunton coverage area should be in the late afternoon and evening hours but could be as early as midday today. A couple of conditions on severe weather today will be the southwest flow over the area that may continue to force the most severe convection north of the NWS Taunton coverage area and the strongest shear will remain to the north though ample shear profiles will exist in the NWS Taunton coverage area.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely this afternoon and tonight. The exact timeframe will be determined later today. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued as time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Lack of trigger despite sufficiently unstable atmosphere has precluded widespread severe weather development Monday Night. An Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm could occur late tonight into early Tuesday Morning but the threat has been reduced and will be handled with SKYWARN Self-Activation as required overnight..
..A complete write-up on Tuesday’s severe weather potential will be sent by 830 AM Tuesday Morning..

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut anytime after 8 PM this evening possibly even extending to the Midnight timeframe and into the overnight hours of early Tuesday Morning. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for this area for Monday Night and early Tuesday Morning..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible across much of the NWS Taunton Coverage area away from the immediate coast late Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Night. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC has extended the Slight Risk area further east for Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will continue until any potential threat for the evening hours has ended or the threat for any activity has passed. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night..

The complex in Central New York State fell apart entering the area and failed to fire off any new strong to severe thunderstorms. Models remain fairly insistent on increasing destablization and a possible subtle trigger for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms via the warm front and possibly a complex of storms or Mesocale Convective System to organize somewhere in New York State and traverse into the region. The threat timeframe is after 8 PM and could potentially be as last as the Midnight timeframe into early Tuesday Morning. SPC and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and portions of Northwest and North-Central Connecticut. The threat remains contingnent on the following:

1.) Placement and triggering mechanism potential of the warm front over the area.
2.) Coverage of severe thunderstorms. There is the possibility that the thunderstorms could be quite isolated over the area but cells that form will have a high probability of producing severe weather. There is now also the possibility of a Mesoscale Convective System or MCS type of complex to organize depending on sufficient triggering otherwise the threat will be more isolated. There remains the possibility that the region will not be affected by severe weather overnight but the situation bears close watching due to certain favorable severe weather parameters.

As any possible severe weather wanes early Tuesday Morning and any potential MCS moves out of the area, heating and destablization should commence again ahead of a cold front later Tuesday Morning into the afternoon. SPC has pushed the slight risk area further east into Southwest New Hampshire and Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut with NWS Taunton factoring in a risk for much of the NWS Taunton coverage area away from the coast. This would mean a more widespread round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The activity could be a short line or two of strong to severe thunderstorms or possibly a squall line. The threat timeframe remains late Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. The Tuesday severe weather threat will be discussed further once any Monday severe weather threat has passed and the severe weather parameters of the atmosphere for Tuesday will be better understood.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will continue through late Monday Evening or early Tuesday Morning pending any severe weather threat materializing. A shortened coordination message will be posted when Ops for any activity Monday Evening/early Tuesday Morning is secured. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night. The next coordination message for any severe weather Tuesday will be posted by 830 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1205281635.wwus81.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1205281731.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms continue to be likely across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut late Monday Afternoon through early Tuesday Morning. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for this area for Monday..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible across much of the NWS Taunton Coverage area away from the immediate coast late Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Night. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Currently, SPC has the Slight Risk area farther to the west for Tuesday but NWS Taunton feels isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could occur over much of the County Warning Area away from the coast..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 3 PM Monday Afternoon lasting into early Tuesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night..

At 1240 PM today, Doppler Radar showed a dieing area of convection over Central New York State, it is possible that this system could refire producing an isolated severe thunderstorm threat by mid-afternoon though current trends are that this area of convection continues to weaken. Other activity could organize behind this dieing area convection after 2-3 PM. There could then be a lull in activity followed by a greater chance for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with possible Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) development around or after 8 pm this evening continuing into early Tuesday Morning. The warm front is reorienting itself from the CT River Valley to near Cape Cod and the islands and will continue to slowly move northward today and this evening. Much of Western and Central New England are in the warm sector and with the warm front as a potential trigger and sun and destablization continuing after a brief interruption from any convection and clouds mid-afternoon, it will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats in the mid to late afternoon followed by a potential MCS and a greater threat for strong to severe thunderstorms later in the evening. SPC and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and portions of Northwest and North-Central Connecticut. The threat now remains contingent on these factors:

1.) Placement and triggering mechanism potential of the warm front over the area.
2.) Coverage of severe thunderstorms. There is the possibility that the thunderstorms could be quite isolated over the area but cells that form will have a high probability of producing severe weather. There is now also the possibility of a Mesoscale Convective System or MCS type of complex around or after 8 PM tonight after more isolated activity earlier in the day. It is also possible that most of the activity will occur this Monday Evening versus the mid to late afternoon period.

As the severe weather threat wanes early Tuesday Morning and any potential MCS moves out of the area, heating and destablization should commence again ahead of a cold front later Tuesday Morning into the afternoon. Currently, SPC has the Slight Risk area farther to the west but NWS Taunton feels isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could occur over much of the County Warning Area away from the coast. This would mean a more widespread round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The activity could be a short line or two of strong to severe thunderstorms or possibly a squall line. The threat timeframe will be late Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. The Tuesday severe weather threat will be discussed further once the Monday severe weather threat has passed.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 3 PM Monday Afternoon lasting into early Tuesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night. This will be the last coordination message on the threat for Monday. The next coordination message will be posted Monday Evening for the Tuesday severe weather threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1205281635.wwus81.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/latest.acus02.KWNS.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut late Monday Afternoon through early Tuesday Morning. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for this area for Monday..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of the NWS Taunton Coverage area late Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Night. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely as early as 3 PM Monday Afternoon lasting into early Tuesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night..

The cold front that moved through Southern New England late Saturday Afternoon and Saturday Night will move back over portions of Western New England on Monday as a warm front and stall over portions of Central New England tonight and Monday. Any shower and isolated thunderstorm activity with the warm front will wane Monday Morning. This will place portions of Western New England in the warm sector and with the warm front as a potential trigger with sunshine and destablization expected. It will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. An isolated supercell cannot be ruled out over the area. SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and portions of Northwest and North-Central Connecticut. The threat will be contingent on the following factors:

1.) Placement and triggering mechanism potential of the warm front over the area.
2.) Amount of sunshine in the warm sector.
3.) Coverage of severe thunderstorms. There is the possibility that the thunderstorms could be quite isolated over the area but cells that form will have a high probability of producing severe weather.

As the severe weather threat wanes early Tuesday Morning, heating and destablization should commence again ahead of a cold front later Tuesday Morning into the afternoon. This should set stage for a more widespread round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The threat timeframe will be late Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. The threat for Tuesday is likely to cover much of the NWS Taunton coverage area away from the coast and could have more numerous severe thunderstorms but potentially not as potent as the Monday late afternoon and evening storms that will likely not be as widespread but each individual cell being more potent. The Tuesday severe weather threat will be discussed further once the Monday severe weather threat has passed.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely as early as 3 PM Monday Afternoon lasting into early Tuesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night. The next coordination message will be posted by Noon Monday. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/latest.acus02.KWNS.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

The Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, WX4NHC, will have its Communications
Test on Saturday June 2nd, 2012 as confirmed with WX4NHC Coordinators, John McHugh-K4AG and
Julio Ripoll-WD4R. The entire Communications Test is from 9 AM-5 PM EDT (1300-2100 UTC)
and WX4NHC will be testing different radio modes at different times including VHF/UHF, HF and
Echolink/IRLP. WX4NHC will be on the *WX_TALK* Echolink conference node: 7203/IRLP 9219 system
from 1-3 PM EDT (1700-1900 UTC) as they have done in past years.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

SKYWARN Newsletter #271 is now available in the SKYWARN Newsletter archive off the main menu of the web site. The direct link is listed below: http://beta.wx1box.org/local/news271.htm

Regards,

Rob Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator for NWS Taunton Massachusetts

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Hello to all..

The following is a Drought Information Statement issued by NWS Taunton which is showing improved conditions due to recent rainfall from late April through mid May. Another Drought Information Statement will be issued by Friday June 15th or sooner if conditions warrant. See the latest NWS Taunton Drought Information Statement below:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/drought_5_17_12.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms now likely across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts, and Northwest Connecticut..
..A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 900 PM for Cheshire County NH, Berkshire, Franklin, Hampden and Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts and Litchfield and Hartford Counties of Connecticut. Damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy downpours are the primary threats. Areas close to the current watch area should also monitor the situation..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 3 PM through the watch expiration timeframe. Below is the Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 280 statement, NWS Taunton County Outline and NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 280 Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1205161718.wwus20.html

NWS Taunton Severe Thunderstorm Watch County Outline:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

 

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