Storm Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday Night 10/4/22-Wednesday Morning 10/5/22 Heavy Rainfall Potential

Hello to all…

..Heavy Rainfall is expected in portions of Southeast Massachusetts through Wednesday Morning where rainfall of 1-2.5″ has already fallen in portions of Plymouth and Barnstable Counties through Tuesday Evening and an additional 1-2″ of rain with isolated higher amounts are possible. This rainfall could lead to localized urban and poor drainage flooding. Wind Gusts of 30-40 MPH with isolated higher gusts are also possible along the immediate East and South Coastal Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island. A reminder that the NWS Boston/Norton Doppler Radar remains down due to scheduled maintenance..
..Given the planned radar outage, ground truth rain gauge reports will be critical to the rainfall forecast and SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for all rain gauge reports, any flooding issues along with any wind gusts 40 MPH or greater and any isolated wind damage reports. This will be the only coordination message on this storm event unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Special Announcement: Amateur Radio Hurricane Nets Activating for Major Hurricane Ian & Florida Impacts

Hello to all…

The Amateur Radio VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net will be active for Major Hurricane Ian and impacts on Florida. Details on their net activation plans can be seen at the following links:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
https://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
https://www.hwn.org

For any SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators in our region who may have friends and family in the affected area and have the ability to provide surface weather or damage reports, pictures and videos, reports can be provided over these nets with pictures and videos provided to WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org

We hope everyone in the affected area of Florida stays safe as major Hurricane Ian approaches.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Special Announcement: NWS Boston/Norton WSR88D Doppler Radar Will Be Down for One Week Starting Thursday AM 9/29/22 for Scheduled Maintenance

Hello to all…

The NWS Boston/Norton WSR88D Doppler Radar will be down for approximately 7 days starting Thursday Morning 9/29/22 for scheduled maintenance. The details on the maintenance and the work being done as part of the WSR88D service life extension program can be seen at the following link:

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202209262006-KBOX-NOUS41-PNSBOX

We hope this information is useful if any severe weather occurs in our area during the time period beginning Thursday morning 9/29/22 when the radar will be out of service.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Special Announcement: Off Topic Post – Big-E Space Chat – Tuesday September 27th, 2022 Starting at 120 PM

Hello to all…

For interested Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters, there will be an Amateur Radio space chat at the Big-E – Tuesday 9/27/22 starting at 120 PM. Amateur Radio Operators who provide a valid license can get into the Big-E with 3 additional family members (4 people total) for free to see the space chat. The details are listed below:

The BIG E Space Chat

We hope folks can attend this space chat as it will be a major PR event for Amateur Radio and its hoped that many may be inspired to get their Amateur Radio license and join the ranks for the Amateur Radio service!

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday 9/25/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England with the greatest risk along and south of the Mass Pike. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with the timeframe for severe weather between 3 PM-12 AM this Sunday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for this Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

A warm front will move across Southern New England and will be accompanied by strong shear. Instability is questionable and will depend on how much surface heating we get ahead of the warm front. At this time, some heating is possible and it will be a question of whether those instability levels are sufficient or strong shear can compensate for limited instability for the formation of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The main threat timeframe is after 3 PM today until late tonight and there is sufficient risk where SPC has placed the region in a marginal risk and this will be monitored.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Sunday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday 9/19/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut this Monday Afternoon and Evening between 3-8 PM EDT and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has this area in a marginal risk for severe weather with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday..

A cold front will move through Southern New England on Monday and could potentially allow for a few isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this Monday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking and key factors include:

1.) Instability with clearing and strong heating noted in the marginal risk area after initial cloudiness earlier this morning.
2.) The timing of strong to severe thunderstorm development close enough to the time of peak heating
3.) Shear profiles are reasonably sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorm development

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday. This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 9/13/22 Severe Weather & Flash Flood Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England through Tuesday Evening with interior locations of Southern New England and locations in Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut favored. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather except for portions of Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut which are in a slight risk for severe weather for late Tuesday Morning through early Tuesday Evening. The timeframe for severe weather potential will be through 8 PM this Tuesday evening..
..Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and flash flood potential and a low risk for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm continues over Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island where some areas have received over 3″ of rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flash flood potential for Tuesday..

This morning portions of Southern Rhode Island and Southeast coastal Massachusetts had heavy rainfall in thunderstorms with some flooding to flash flood issues in portions of the area. Portions of Southeast New England continue to receive thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding with an isolated severe thunderstorm possible. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report and WX1BOX Amateur Radio log on this activity:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2209131635.nwus51.html

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/reports_9_13_22_rev_1.pdf

A cold front will move through the Northeast later Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong wind shear profiles and sufficient instability will allow for the possibility of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms as the front will eventually usher in fall-like weather for a couple of days as we go through the rest of the week. The headlines depict the current thinking and key factors include:

1.) Amount of instability as cloud cover could prevent severe thunderstorm development. At this time, there appears to be sufficient heating and destabilization particularly in Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut to allow for at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) Amount of forcing and whether it is sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms. At this time, this should be sufficient in areas of Western and Central Massachusetts and
3.) Sufficient overlap of forcing and instability, which is currently expected over Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut but will need to be monitored further east along with factors one and two.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 9/13/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England late Tuesday Morning through early evening with interior locations of Southern New England and locations in Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut favored. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for late Tuesday Morning through early Tuesday Evening. The timeframe for severe weather potential is between 10 AM-6 PM EDT Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday..

A cold front will move through the Northeast on Tuesday. Strong wind shear profiles and sufficient instability will allow for the possibility of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms as the front will eventually usher in fall-like weather for a couple of days as we go through the rest of the week. The headlines depict the current thinking and key factors include:

1.) Amount of instability as cloud cover could prevent severe thunderstorm development but if more clearing occurs, it could allow for greater coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms.
2.) Amount of forcing and whether it is sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorm or if it moves the area of greatest strong to severe thunderstorm coverage north and east of our area.
3.) Sufficient overlap of forcing and instability, which is currently expected over Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut but will need to be monitored further east along with factors one and two.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM EDT Tuesday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day2otlk_20220912_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Storm Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 9/6/22 Flood Potential and Post Storm Info on Monday 9/5/22 Flash Flood Event

Hello to all…

..Beneficial rains over portions of Southern New England but in other parts of the region, extremely heavy rainfall with significant flash flooding occurred on Monday with the significant rainfall rates particularly in the North Providence, Providence, Cranston and Smithfield RI area as well as other parts of Rhode Island and Northeast Connecticut. Some pockets of flooding continue today in areas of heaviest rainfall from yesterday and in areas that are getting heavier rainfall rates today..
..A Flood Watch remains in effect through Tuesday afternoon for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Eastern Hampden, Worcester Counties of Western and Central Massachusetts and all of Eastern Massachusetts except for Cape Cod and the Islands. Rain totals will vary widely with amounts of 1-4″ of total rainfall between Monday and Tuesday with amounts between 6-10″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts in portions of Providence County RI counting rain that already fell Monday and additional rainfall from today..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for flooding and rain gauge reports through Tuesday Night. Pictures of storm damage, flooding and rain gauge reports can be posted on our WX1BOX social media feeds or at the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for those reports. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Flood Watch, Warning, Flood Statement Info, Public Information Statement, Local Storm Report and Amateur Radio Log through 735 AM Tuesday Morning..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Warning Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2209060022.nwus51.html

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log of Reports as of 9/6/22 – 735 AM:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/reports_9_5_22.pdf

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday 8/26/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms remain possible to likely in interior Southern New England with the greatest potential in Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut into Northwest Rhode Island where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a slight risk for severe weather but areas across interior North-Central Rhode Island through Eastern Massachusetts along and west of I-95 corridor to the coast should also monitor as SPC has these areas in a marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. Threat timeframe is anytime between 12 PM-10 PM Friday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening across the region..

A cold front will move through the region timed with peak heating and will bring the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across interior Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Sufficient heating and destabilization ahead of the cold front timed near peak heating to allow for enough instability for strong to severe thunderstorm development. That is occurring with abundant sunshine over the area and even in Eastern New York where a few showers have developed, there is still sufficient sunshine allowing for heating and destabilization.
2.) Sufficient forcing as the front moves into the region to tap into and trigger the instability in the atmosphere for severe thunderstorm development. That is expected to be in place per latest forecast models.
3.) Sufficiently strong wind shear values making it far enough south with proper jet stream orientation to allow for severe thunderstorm development. This is also in place per latest forecast models.
4.) If the 3 above factors can align, it could bring the typical main threats of strong to damaging winds and hail to be a bit more widespread and also have a secondary risk of an isolated tornado in our coverage area. As is typical of these situations, not every location will see a strong to severe thunderstorm but the coverage could be a bit more extensive if factors 1-3 line up.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening across the region. This is the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

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