Hello to all…

The Prevailing Winds Newsletter June 2020 edition is now available. Links to this edition of the newsletter and the Prevailing Winds Newsletter Archive are available at the following links:

Prevailing Winds Newsletter – June 2020 via NWS Boston/Norton Web Site:
https://www.weather.gov/media/box/prevailing_winds/2020_06_prevailing_winds.pdf

Prevailing Winds Newsletter – June 2020 via NWS Boston/Norton Web Site:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/2020_06_prevailing_winds.pdf

Prevailing Winds Newsletter Archive – NWS Boston/Norton Web Site:
https://www.weather.gov/box/prevailing_winds

Prevailing Winds Newsletter Archive – NWS Boston/Norton Web Site:
https://wx1box.org/prevailing-winds-newsletter-archive/

We hope folks enjoy the latest edition of the Prevailing Winds Newsletter and can view the archive of prior newsletters for past great info for weather spotting and the National Weather Service.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Hello to all…

..Scattered Severe Thunderstorms caused pockets of significant tree and wire damage with the hardest hit areas across South-Central Worcester, Western Norfolk and Northwest Bristol Counties of Massachusetts with more scattered damage across Northeast Connecticut, Northern Rhode Island, and parts of Northeast Massachusetts into North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts during the mid-afternoon hours..
..Second round of severe thunderstorms after 830 PM through about 1000 PM caused additional pockets of wind damage and hail up to 1″ in diameter across portions of Eastern Worcester, South-Central Middlesex and Northern Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts..
..At the height of the severe thunderstorms, over 14,000 were without power in Massachusetts. We will be posting a Facebook Photo Album later on Sunday and continue to look for additional reports and photos from this severe thunderstorm event. We’ll look to post a second post severe weather coordination message by Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report, Public Information Statement and WX1BOX Amateur Radio log..

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2006070146.nwus51.html

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2006062109.nous41.html

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/reports_6_6_20.pdf

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much Southern New England along and north and west of the Cape Cod Canal with the greatest threat in Central and Eastern Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and brief heavy downpours leading to brief urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of the NWS Norton Coverage area along and north and west of the Cape Cod Canal in a marginal risk for severe weather. Timeframe for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be in 1-7 PM Saturday Afternoon and Evening timeframe from west to east across the area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor severe weather potential for Saturday Afternoon and Evening..

A warm and muggy day is expected in Southern New England ahead of a cold front that will sweep across the region bringing an end to the warm and humid conditions. Accompanying the cold front will be the risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for today’s severe weather potential are as follows:

1.) Sufficient heating and destabilization to allow for strong to severe thunderstorm development. Satellite imagery shows significant clearing ahead of the cold front across Southern New England with lower clouds in southeast New England burning off and heading eastward. This should allow for sufficient instability coupled with sufficient wind shear for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms.
2.) Amount of dry air aloft. Some dry air aloft could allow for stronger wind gusts but too much dry air could stunt thunderstorm development in the area and affect the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms. At this time, a broken line of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms is the current likely scenario.
3.) The timing of the cold front through the region which at this time looks to occur at time of peak heating and destabilization.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather potential for Saturday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message on this severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement on severe weather potential, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2006060842.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Saturday Afternoon and Evening across interior Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and brief heavy downpours leading to brief urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Timeframe for thunderstorms will be in the Saturday early to mid-afternoon through early evening timeframe. Any isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be contingent on sufficient clearing and destabilization along and ahead of a cold front, frontal timing which is currently expected to be favorable in the mid to late Saturday Afternoon timeframe and whether there will be sufficient mid-level moisture to sustain thunderstorm strength..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather potential for Saturday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion with information on the potential..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

Today, Monday June 1st, 2020, marks the start of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season is expected to be above normal per the NOAA/National Hurricane Center, Colorado State University and Penn State University outlooks among others. To mark the start of Atlantic Hurricane Season, NWS Boston/Norton has published a Public Information Statement with the names of the tropical systems for 2020 as well as some tropical cyclone history in Southern New England and tropical cyclone safety tips. This can be seen at the following link:

https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/pns_start_of_hurricane_season_2020.pdf

The National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center in Miami FL will issue advisories on named systems, Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches and Warnings when a system threatens a land area, Tropical Cyclone Updates on named systems and Tropical Weather Outlooks for potential areas of tropical cyclone development. Their suite of products and tropical system names are listed in their first couple of tropical weather outlooks and the link from 8 AM EDT – Monday June 1st Tropical Weather Outlook is listed below:

https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/two_at_start_of_hurricane_season_2020.pdf

It is noted that the threat of a hurricane to a land area in the Atlantic basin would cause the activation of WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio station at the National Hurricane Center, the Hurricane Watch Net on HF and the VoIP Hurricane Net on Echolink and IRLP. Web page resources for these groups are listed below:

WX4NHC – the Amateur Radio station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org/

Hurricane Watch Net:
https://hwn.org/

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://voipwx.net/

With the COVID-19 pandemic, there is already a strain on public safety resources and if a tropical storm or hurricane threatens our region, our role to provide timely severe weather reporting to protect life and property as SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters will be even more critical and our own preparedness will also be critical as well. Please use this time to prepare if a tropical system were to affect Southern New England.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

NWS Boston/Norton will be doing event review webinars on recent weather events including the May 15th 2020 Severe Thunderstorms and the May 23rd 2020 flooding on the islands. The May 15th, 2020 severe thunderstorm event review will be Wednesday 6/3/20 from 5-6 PM and the May 23rd 2020 Flooding on the Islands event review will be Thursday 6/4/20 from 5-6 PM. Registration details for these webinars can be seen at the following link:

https://www.weather.gov/box/Event_Review

We hope many will get the chance to see these event reviews provided by NWS Boston/Norton meteorologists.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio station at the National Hurricane Center, will be active with its on air-test Saturday 5/30/20 from 9 AM-5 PM EDT. They will be on the *WX_TALK* Echolink conference node: 7203/IRLP 9219 reflector system from 4-5 PM EDT (2000-2100 UTC) Saturday 5/30/20. A link to the WX4NHC On-Air Test Announcement from Assistant WX4NHC Coordinator, WD4R-Julio Ripoll, is listed below:

Below is our WX4NHC Annual Station Test announcement and a brief statement about the upcoming hurricane season.

The 2020 Hurricane Season outlook is about 140% more active than the average season.

That is about 14-18 named storms, which includes 7-9 hurricanes, possibly 4 major hurricanes (Cat-3 to Cat-5).

The 2019 season had 18 named storms, 6 became hurricanes, of which 3 were major hurricanes.

The above average prediction is largely due to the hot Atlantic and Caribbean waters and lack of a substantial El Niño in the Pacific.

The combination of a busy hurricane season and the ongoing Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic could be a nightmare scenario for areas affected by hurricanes.

FEMA and local Emergency Management Agencies are issuing COVID-19 guidelines for Hurricane Shelters, which include face masks and social spacing.

Please stay informed and prepare your Hurricane Supplies early.

Good Luck and Stay Safe!

73 de WX4NHC

Announcement from WX4NHC
Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, Miami Florida

WX4NHC will be On-The-Air for the Annual Station Test
Saturday, May 30th , 2020 from 9AM- 5 PM EDT ( 1300z- 2100z)
This will be our 40th year of public service at NHC.

The purpose of this event is to test WX4NHC Amateur Radio Station Operations and equipment, antennas and computers prior to this year’s Hurricane Season, which starts June 1st and runs through November 30th.

This event is good practice for Ham Radio Operators world-wide to practice Amateur Radio communications available during times of severe weather.

We will be making brief contacts on many frequencies and modes, exchanging signal reports and basic weather data exchange (Sunny, Rain, Temperature, etc.) with any station in any location.

WX4NHC will be On-The-Air on HF, VHF, UHF , 2 & 30 meter APRS and WinLink wx4nhc@winlink.org subject must contain //WL2K.

We will try to stay on the Hurricane Watch Net frequency 14.325 MHz most of the time. Also 7.268 MHz depending on propagation.

However, we will be operating different frequencies depending on QRM.

You may be able to find us on HF by using one of the DX Spotting Networks,

Such as the DX Summit Web Site: http://www.dxsummit.fi/Search.aspx

We will also be on VoIP Hurricane Net 4pm-5pm EDT (2000-2100z)
(IRLP node 9219 / EchoLink WX-TALK Conference node 7203). http://www.voipwx.net/

Florida Statewide SARNET and local VHF & UHF Repeaters will be contacted.

QSL Cards are available via WD4R. Please send your card with a S.A.S.E.

Please do NOT send QSLs directly to the Hurricane Center address, as it will get delayed.

Due to security measures and COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic: NO VISITORS will be allowed entry to NHC.

For more information about WX4NHC, please visit our website
www.wx4nhc.org

Thank you for your participation in the WX4NHC Annual Station Test event.

73, Julio – WD4R
-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-
Julio Ripoll Architect WD4R
WX4NHC Amateur Radio Asst. Coordinator
www.wx4nhc.org
Celebrating 40 years at the
National Hurricane Center
www.nhc.noaa.gov

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Severe Weather Risk has shifted a bit further north and west with Western and Northern Massachusetts into Southern New Hampshire, clipping parts of Northwest Connecticut as the key risk area but all areas should monitor similar to the previous coordination message particularly interior Southern New England..
..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Friday particularly across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut but also possible in interior Northern Rhode Island through interior Northeast Massachusetts along and north and west of the Boston to Providence. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats with the secondary threat for an isolated tornado particularly in Western New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has shifted the enhanced risk area to focus on Western and Central Massachusetts as far east as North-Central Middlesex County Massachusetts clipping a portion of Northwest Connecticut. A slight risk of severe weather exists for the rest of Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and interior Eastern Massachusetts up to the Boston to Providence corridor. East coastal and south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island remain in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio call-up nets are likely after 3 PM ET Friday Afternoon. The timeframe for severe weather is between 3-10 PM Friday Afternoon and Evening..

At 1110 AM, the warm front has shifted through Southern New England with clearing evident on visible satellite imagery across interior Southern New England across, Connecticut, Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts from the Boston to Providence corridor north and west. Clearing is also starting in southeastern areas as well. Based on the timing of the cold front being a bit later, the focus for more widespread strong to severe thunderstorms is across Western and Northern Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire clipping Northwest Connecticut. Radar does show an area of showers over Southern Ontario Canada and lighter showers in South-Central New York where which may be an area that allow severe thunderstorms to develop in the earlier peak heating timeframe of 3-7 PM and will bear watching. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Clearing allows for the expected heating and destabilization as modeled. This is progressing as expected.
2.) The position of the warm front verifies allowing most of Southern New England to be in the warm sector. This has progressed as expected.
3.) The position of and timing of the cold front is a bit later than previously forecasted which is why the enhanced risk for severe weather has shifted into Northwest Connecticut, Western and Central Massachusetts through North-Central Middlesex County Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire. The key item is whether the warm/cold frontal positions will allow for the triggering mechanism to be close enough for severe thunderstorms to develop ahead of the main line increasing the severe weather risk. The squall line of severe thunderstorms will arrive towards sunset where instability will be dropping but jet dynamics and forcing could allow the severe thunderstorms along the line or activity ahead of the line to maintain itself for 2-3 hours after sunset with the focus again in Northwest Connecticut, Western and Central Massachusetts through North-Central Middlesex County Mass and Southern New Hampshire. If the timing is later or jet dynamics do not compensate to maintain the squall line of activity or any activity ahead of the squall line, the severe weather potential would be more muted and/or isolated to scattered in nature. Regardless, the potential will have to be monitored closely.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio call-up nets are likely after 3 PM ET Friday Afternoon. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement on Severe Weather Potential, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Friday particularly across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut but also possible in interior Northern Rhode Island through interior Northeast Massachusetts along and north and west of the Boston to Providence. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats with the secondary threat for an isolated tornado particularly in Western New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut in an Enhanced risk of severe weather for Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and interior Eastern Massachusetts in a slight risk for severe weather and east coastal and south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island in a marginal risk for severe weather. The timeframe for severe weather is between 3-10 PM Friday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio call-up nets are likely after 3 PM ET Friday Afternoon..

A warm front will swing through Southern New England with a period of showers and downpours Friday Morning. The front will hang up somewhere in Southern Vermont and Southern New Hampshire and Northeast Massachusetts. Clearing is expected and with the warm front in close proximity, there will be the formation of strong to severe thunderstorms in the heating and the warm front serving as a trigger. Following that a cold front will swing through the area with the potential for a squall line of severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Clearing allows for the expected heating and destabilization as modeled.
2.) The position of the warm front verifies allowing most of Southern New England to be in the warm sector.
3.) Timing of the cold front through the area and forcing around the warm front to allow for severe thunderstorm development in the 3-10 PM time window.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio call-up nets are likely after 3 PM ET Friday Afternoon. The next coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200514_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box