Page 95 – WX1BOX – Amateur Radio Station at NWS Boston/Norton

Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 9/25/18 Heavy Rainfall Potential/Wednesday 9/26/18 Severe Weather Potential

September 24, 2018 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Soaking heavy rainfall for Tuesday through Tuesday Night with the potential for some localized urban and poor drainage flooding issues if some areas receive 3″ or more of rainfall..

..As a warm front passes through the area that causes the soaking rainfall Tuesday, the potential exists for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms in South Coastal New England Wednesday Morning with the potential for another round of severe weather particularly in interior Southern New England late Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Night. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather except for Southeast Coastal New England which is in a marginal risk for severe weather..

..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall and flooding reports on Tuesday through Tuesday Night and the severe weather potential in South Coastal New England overnight Tuesday into Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening if the severe weather potential materializes during this timeframe..

A soaking rainfall with a storm system and warm front will occur across Southern New England with a widespread 1-3″ of rainfall. Some models are indicating that some interior locations of Southern New England could see amounts greater than 3″. This will bear watching as this could lead to some localized urban and poor drainage flooding issues if those totals are realized. As the warm front and soaking rainfall moves through the region and Southern New England gets into the warm sector, this will set the stage for potentially 2 rounds of severe weather. The first round of severe weather would be around South Coastal New England during the overnight hours Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning and then a second round with a cold front that will swing through Southern New England. Future model runs will better define the level of instability and destabilization for strong to severe thunderstorm development on Wednesday but it is notable that SPC has much of Southern New England in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather 3 days ahead of time which is a relatively rare occurrence.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall and flooding reports on Tuesday through Tuesday Night and the severe weather potential in South Coastal New England overnight Tuesday into Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening if the severe weather potential materializes during this timeframe. Another coordination message will be posted by 900 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day3otlk_20180924_0730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Remnants of Florence Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 9/18/18 Flash Flood/Severe Weather Potential

September 18, 2018 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Remnants of Florence will bring the potential of heavy rain and urban, poor drainage and small stream flooding to flash flooding across much of Southern New England and the threat of an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with the potential of strong to damaging winds or an isolated tornado..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from 5 AM Tuesday through Late Tuesday Night for Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and Western, Central and Eastern Massachusetts except for the South Coast. The potential exists for a widespread 1-3″ of rain with isolated higher amounts and a band of 4-6″ of rain could potentially setup somewhere in the coverage area within the Flash Flood Watch area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely on Tuesday. Specific timeframe of activation will be determined in the morning..

The remnants of Florence are finally moving away from the Carolinas and will make a pass through Southern New England late tonight through Tuesday Evening. The headlines of the message depict the potential. Not much change to the current forecast but will be monitoring a bit more closely any thunderstorms and severe weather potential given what occurred in Virginia Monday Afternoon into early evening. Again, we do not expect the impacts of Florence to be anywhere near what has been seen in North and South Carolina. That said, with recent heavy rainfall and this new potential for heavy rainfall, there will be some potential impacts to the region and we have to remain aware of the low to very low risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm with the potential for strong to damaging winds or an isolated small tornado. Key items on this flood and severe weather potential:

1.) The position of the heaviest rainfall is still not totally known and will be refined in future forecasts.
2.) The threat of an isolated severe thunderstorm with a damaging wind or small tornado risk will be contingent on the amount of instability that can develop.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely on Tuesday. Specific timeframe of activation will be determined in future messages. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Tuesday Morning and ongoing weather early Tuesday Morning will determine whether or not it will be a full message or a shortened coordination message. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

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Remnants of Florence Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 9/18/18 Flash Flood/Severe Weather Potential

September 17, 2018 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

…Remnants of Florence will bring the potential of heavy rain and urban, poor drainage and small stream flooding to flash flooding across much of Southern New England and the threat of an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with the potential of strong to damaging winds or an isolated tornado..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from Late Tonight through Late Tuesday Night for Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and Western, Central and Eastern Massachusetts except for the South Coast. The potential exists for a widespread 1-3″ of rain with isolated higher amounts and a band of 4-6″ of rain could potentially setup somewhere in the coverage area within the Flash Flood Watch area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely on Tuesday. Specific timeframe of activation will be determined in future messages..

The remnants of Florence are finally moving away from the Carolinas and will make a pass through Southern New England late tonight through Tuesday Evening. The headlines of the message depict the potential. We do not expect the impacts of Florence to be anywhere near what has been seen in North and South Carolina. That said, with recent heavy rainfall and this new potential for heavy rainfall, there will be some potential impacts to the region and we have to also be aware of the very low risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm with the potential for strong to damaging winds or an isolated small tornado. Key items on this flood and severe weather potential:

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely on Tuesday. Specific timeframe of activation will be determined in future messages. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Monday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

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Special Announcement: Hurricane Florence Amateur Radio Hurricane Net Activation Plans

September 13, 2018 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Special Announcement for Amateur Radio Hurricane Net Activation Plans for Hurricane Florence and impacts to North and South Carolina possibly extending into Virginia..

..Amateur Radio Operators in Massachusetts will be providing support to the VoIP Hurricane Net Thursday Morning into the weekend as necessary..

..SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators in Southern New England who may have contact with family, friends, other Amateur Radio Operators or SKYWARN spotters in the affected area of hurricane Florence are encouraged to forward any reports, pictures and videos via the Amateur Radio hurricane nets, via the WX1BOX or voipwxnet Facebook and Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org. Also, any relayed public safety reports, pictures, videos from online feeds, social media or from public safety people in the affected area is also encouraged. Credit will be given to the individual with the reports and pictures and the person within our spotter network that relayed this information..

..Links below provide information on various net activations for Hurricane Florence..

Hurricane Watch Net Activation Plans:
http://www.hwn.org/policies/activationplans.html

VoIP Hurricane Net Activation Plans:

UPDATE: VoIP Hurricane Net Activation Plans – Hurricane Florence – Start Time: 9/13/18 at 900 AM EDT/1300 UTC

ARRL Web Page on hurricane response:

http://www.arrl.org/2018-Hurricanes

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 9/6/18 Severe Weather Potential

September 6, 2018 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..A Cold front will bring a threat of severe weather and an end to the latest round of heat and humidity today making for a nice seasonable weekend. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM Thursday Morning through 7 PM Thursday Evening for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely today across much of Southern New England with a slightly higher threat area along and south of the Mass Pike to the coastal areas today. Strong to Damaging Winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather today. The main threat timeframe is from 2-10 PM today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 1-130 PM today for this severe weather potential..

One last day of heat and humidity ahead of a cold front will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England as a cold front swings through the region bringing more seasonable weather for this weekend. There will be sufficient heating and destabilization with marginally sufficient wind shear to allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the region. The extent of coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms is a bit uncertain given the strongest wind shear is somewhat disconnected from the higher instability areas and other marginal factors associated with the cold front but there looks to be enough parameters in place for at least isolated to scattered coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms. If the stronger wind shear becomes closer to the higher levels of instability in place in Southern New England and other severe weather parameters improve, that could set the stage for a more potent severe weather episode but current thinking is for more isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the area.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 1-130 PM today for this severe weather potential. This will be the only coordination message on this severe weather potential as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Special Announcement: WX4NHC, Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center Presentation, SKYWARN Training & ARES/RACES/SKYWARN Booth at Boxboro

August 27, 2018 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

At the Boxboro ARRL New England Division Amateur Radio Convention for Friday 9/7/18 from 1230-145 PM, we will have a rare opportunity for a live presentation from one of the key national figures in Amateur Radio Public Service. Julio Ripoll, WD4R, Assistant WX4NHC Coordinator will be presenting an overview of WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio station at the National Hurricane Center, as well as the operations Julio and a team of WX4NHC, MARS and other operators completed for the Haiti Earthquake in 2010. It is a rare opportunity to hear this presentation live and to meet Julio who founded operations at the National Hurricane Center in 1980 and has maintained the station at the National Hurricane Center for the last 38 years.

Also, on Friday 9/7/18, KI1U-Mike Corey, ARRL Emergency Preparedness Manager, will present the ARESConnect system from 10-1130 AM and similar to what has been done in past years, SKYWARN Training will be offered from 2-430 PM.

The complete schedule of events on Friday in chronological order is listed below:
1000 AM-1130 AM: ARES Connect Presentation by KI1U-Mike Corey, ARRL Emergency Preparedness Manager
1230 PM-145 PM: WX4NHC Station Overview and Haiti Earthquake Presentation, WD4R-Julio Ripoll, Assistant WX4NHC Coordinator
200-430 PM: SKYWARN Training Class (This is the full training class and will get you a Spotter ID card if a newly trained spotter or count for a renewal of your SKYWARN Training)

Anyone wishing to attend these presentations on Friday 9/7/18 can do so free of charge.

Also, at Boxboro, we will have an ARES/RACES/SKYWARN booth on Saturday 9/8/18 and Sunday 9/9/18. There will also be a SKYWARN Overview Presentation Saturday 9/8/18 from 1000-1050 AM.

There will be many other Amateur Radio related presentations at Boxboro. For a complete list of the forums, check out the following link at the boxboro.org web site:
http://www.boxboro.org/forums-and-classes/forum-schedule

Also, for anyone interested in obtaining their Amateur Radio license, there will be a technician-in-a-day course sponsored by the Cape Ann Amateur Radio Association on Saturday 9/8/18 from 9 AM-5 PM. The details on registration can be found via the following link:
http://www.boxboro.org/tech-in-a-day

We hope to see many of you at the Boxboro, ARRL New England Division Convention. Thanks to all for their support!

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 8/22/18 Severe Weather Potential

August 22, 2018 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday in two possible timeframes. The first timeframe is in the morning hours between 4 and 10 AM and the second timeframe is in the mid-afternoon to early evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but an isolated tornado particularly during the morning hours is a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..

..SKYWARN Activation is likely Wednesday. Self-Activation will be utilized in the morning and Ops at NWS Boston/Norton could be utilized for the Wednesday Afternoon/Evening timeframe..

There is the potential for two rounds of potential severe weather on Wednesday, one with the warm front Wednesday Morning and the other mid-afternoon Wednesday through early evening Wednesday. The headlines depict the current thinking. Here is the current key factors for these two rounds of potential severe weather:

Wednesday Morning – Key Factors:

1.) Instability coinciding with the shear and turning in the atmosphere with the warm front

2.) How much instability we get if it can coincide with the shear and turning in the atmosphere

Wednesday Afternoon through early evening – Key Factors:

1.) Amount of heating and destabilization ahead of the cold front to allow for sufficient instability

2.) Timing of the cold front into the region augmenting the level of heating and destabilization

SKYWARN Activation is likely Wednesday. Self-Activation will be utilized in the morning and Ops at NWS Boston/Norton could be utilized for the Wednesday Afternoon/Evening timeframe. Another coordination message, either a shortened one or a complete coordination message depending on what time allows will be posted by 1230 PM Wednesday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day2otlk_20180821_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 8/22/18 Severe Weather Potential

August 21, 2018 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..SKYWARN Activation in some form is likely Wednesday. Either Self-Activation or Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will be utilized in the morning and Ops at NWS Boston/Norton could be utilized for the Wednesday Afternoon/Evening timeframe. This will be planned out more thoroughly in the evening update. A more complete coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Tuesday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day2otlk_20180821_0600.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday 8/17/18 Severe Weather Potential

August 17, 2018 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely across interior Southern New England from Friday mid-afternoon through late Friday Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather and Eastern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..

..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely starting around 1-2 PM lasting through late Friday Evening..

At 1010 AM, Doppler Radar showed an area of rainfall associated with the warm front that will swing through the area late this morning through mid-afternoon. This activity may intensify and produce a couple isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Behind this area and behind the warm front and ahead of a cold front/trough, another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible assuming sufficient heating and destabilization and shear and jet dynamics will increase a bit behind the warm front and head of the cold front/trough. This would start toward the late afternoon and early evening timeframe lasting through late evening. The headlines cover this well. It is noted that there is a secondary threat for an isolated/brief tornado in this setup given the proximity of the warm front, increasing jet dynamics and wind aloft through evening presuming sufficient heating and destabilization.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely starting around 1-2 PM lasting through late Friday Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 8/17/18 Severe Weather Potential

August 17, 2018 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely starting around 1-2 PM lasting through late Friday Evening. A more complete coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day2otlk_20180816_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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