Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Monday July 18th, 2011 Threat
Hello to all..
..Potential exists for a Severe Weather Outbreak across much of Southern New England Monday Afternoon and Evening. Damaging Winds, large hail, urban/poor drainage flooding to isolated flash flooding and isolated supercells are the primary threats..
..Threat timeframe is anytime after 11 AM today. The Storm Prediction Center and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a high-end Slight Risk of severe weather for much of Southern New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime after 11 AM today..
At 7 AM, Doppler Radar showed a weakening area of showers and embedded thunderstorms over Southern New Hampshire. This will affect northeast Massachusetts before racing out to sea. A complex of strong thunderstorms is over Lake Ontario diving Southeastward. This will get into Central and Eastern New York later this morning and could get into portions of Western New England early to mid this afternoon and into Central and Eastern New England mid to late afternoon. Satellite imagery at 7 AM shows some mid to high level clouds over Southern New England that should clear out and allow for heating and destablization over the next few hours. Presuming the complex over Lake Ontario holds together as expected, this will likely be the complex that produces a potentially widespread severe weather episode over the region. Damaging Winds, Large Hail, urban and poor drainage flooding to possibly isolated flash flooding and isolated supercells are the main threats. It is noted that the Storm Prediction Center has put Southern New England back into the high percentage slight risk for severe thunderstorm category and NWS Taunton is in agreement. This event is not expected to be as potent as June 1st of this year but it should be a potentially active severe weather day in the region and today’s storms should be monitored closely.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime after 11 AM today. This will likely be the last complete coordination message as we move into operations mode. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Hello to all..
..Potential exists for a Severe Weather Outbreak across much of Southern New England Monday Afternoon and Evening. Damaging Winds, large hail, urban/poor drainage flooding to isolated flash flooding and isolated supercells are the primary threats..
..Threat timeframe is anytime after 11 AM today. The Storm Prediction Center and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a high-end Slight Risk of severe weather for much of Southern New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime after 11 AM today..
At 7 AM, Doppler Radar showed a weakening area of showers and embedded thunderstorms over Southern New Hampshire. This will affect northeast Massachusetts before racing out to sea. A complex of strong thunderstorms is over Lake Ontario diving Southeastward. This will get into Central and Eastern New York later this morning and could get into portions of Western New England early to mid this afternoon and into Central and Eastern New England mid to late afternoon. Satellite imagery at 7 AM shows some mid to high level clouds over Southern New England that should clear out and allow for heating and destablization over the next few hours. Presuming the complex over Lake Ontario holds together as expected, this will likely be the complex that produces a potentially widespread severe weather episode over the region. Damaging Winds, Large Hail, urban and poor drainage flooding to possibly isolated flash flooding and isolated supercells are the main threats. It is noted that the Storm Prediction Center has put Southern New England back into the high percentage slight risk for severe thunderstorm category and NWS Taunton is in agreement. This event is not expected to be as potent as June 1st of this year but it should be a potentially active severe weather day in the region and today’s storms should be monitored closely.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime after 11 AM today. This will likely be the last complete coordination message as we move into operations mode. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org