Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday July 4th, 2012 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms continue to be possible for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Uncertainities exist with what occurs with convection during the early morning hours of Wednesday and what impacts that has on the environment for later Wednesday. Anyone with outdoor interests particularly given the amount of them occurring for July 4th/Independence Day activities should continue to monitor later forecasts..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely for Wednesday..
This morning the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) reduced the threat level for severe weather from Slight Risk to ‘See Text’/5% severe weather probability owing to uncertainties in what evolves for convection and storms during the early morning hours Wednesday. They also stated, however, that a Slight risk could be reintroduced in later outlooks.
Essentially, two scenarios could evolve for July 4th. The first sceneario would be that convection that occurs during Wednesday Morning will mitigate heating and destablization lessening the threat for showers and thunderstorms and a severe weather threat for later in the day Wednesday. The second scenario is that this activity moves through quickly and allows for clearing, heating and destablization that would allow for at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and even the potential for a more potent severe weather outbreak. The forecast is uncertain in the regards to the severe weather magnitude but odds favor at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats during Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. If enough clearing and other parameters line up, a more potent severe weather episode would be possible. Given the amount of outdoor activities for July 4th, future forecasts should be monitored closely for changes as the initial set of convection moves through Wednesday Morning and what that means for potential severe weather later Wednesday.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely for Wednesday. Another coordination message will be issued by 1130 PM this evening to update Wednesday’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms continue to be possible for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Uncertainities exist with what occurs with convection during the early morning hours of Wednesday and what impacts that has on the environment for later Wednesday. Anyone with outdoor interests particularly given the amount of them occurring for July 4th/Independence Day activities should continue to monitor later forecasts..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely for Wednesday..
This morning the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) reduced the threat level for severe weather from Slight Risk to ‘See Text’/5% severe weather probability owing to uncertainties in what evolves for convection and storms during the early morning hours Wednesday. They also stated, however, that a Slight risk could be reintroduced in later outlooks.
Essentially, two scenarios could evolve for July 4th. The first sceneario would be that convection that occurs during Wednesday Morning will mitigate heating and destablization lessening the threat for showers and thunderstorms and a severe weather threat for later in the day Wednesday. The second scenario is that this activity moves through quickly and allows for clearing, heating and destablization that would allow for at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and even the potential for a more potent severe weather outbreak. The forecast is uncertain in the regards to the severe weather magnitude but odds favor at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats during Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. If enough clearing and other parameters line up, a more potent severe weather episode would be possible. Given the amount of outdoor activities for July 4th, future forecasts should be monitored closely for changes as the initial set of convection moves through Wednesday Morning and what that means for potential severe weather later Wednesday.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely for Wednesday. Another coordination message will be issued by 1130 PM this evening to update Wednesday’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org