Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Wednesday July 4th Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible late this Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across much of the NWS Taunton coverage area with some models indicating that Southern New Hampshire and Eastern Massachusetts may be at greatest risk for isolated to scattered severe weather activity. Damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC and NWS Taunton maintain the 5% probability of severe weather risk over the area..
..Much of the region is clearing out this morning in the wake of earlier showers and isolated downpours which will allow temperatures to rise into the lower 90’s with high humidity. Much of the region will remain dry but isolated to scattered locations could receive a shower or thunderstorm and a couple to few locations could see a strong to severe thunderstorm..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor the severe weather potential for later Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Evening. Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely for the same time period..
At 1030 AM, Satellite and Radar imagery indicate clearing conditions across much of Southern New England. Clouds across Southeast Massachusetts and Southern Rhode Island will move out of the area allowing for temperatures to rise quickly with much higher humidity there as well. Temperatures are expected to reach the lower 90s.
As this occurs, the atmosphere will destabilize over the course of the day with good wind shear profiles over the region. Warmer temperatures aloft and the lack of a trigger will keep the atmosphere capped for a good portion of the day across the region and this will mean little in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity during the day. As we get into late this afternoon and this evening, an impulse will approach the region from southern Canada and this may allow for the cap to be broken allowing for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The threat is conditional on the impulse being able to break the cap and tap into the unstable environment and wind shear aloft. Models seem to indicate that Southern New Hampshire and Eastern Massachusetts may be an area to watch though all areas should monitor the situation. As stated in this coordination message and prior messages, much of the region will remain dry but isolated to scattered locations could receive a shower or thunderstorm and a couple to few locations could see a strong to severe thunderstorm.
SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor the severe weather potential for later Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Evening. Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely for the same time period. This will be the last full coordination message on today’s threat. Given the 4th of July holiday and many outdoor activities, a shortened coordination message will be issued later today, likely prior to or around 800 PM this evening, either indicating the threat is cleared or if Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated or SKYWARN Self-Activation is actively monitoring activity over the region. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible late this Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across much of the NWS Taunton coverage area with some models indicating that Southern New Hampshire and Eastern Massachusetts may be at greatest risk for isolated to scattered severe weather activity. Damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC and NWS Taunton maintain the 5% probability of severe weather risk over the area..
..Much of the region is clearing out this morning in the wake of earlier showers and isolated downpours which will allow temperatures to rise into the lower 90’s with high humidity. Much of the region will remain dry but isolated to scattered locations could receive a shower or thunderstorm and a couple to few locations could see a strong to severe thunderstorm..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor the severe weather potential for later Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Evening. Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely for the same time period..
At 1030 AM, Satellite and Radar imagery indicate clearing conditions across much of Southern New England. Clouds across Southeast Massachusetts and Southern Rhode Island will move out of the area allowing for temperatures to rise quickly with much higher humidity there as well. Temperatures are expected to reach the lower 90s.
As this occurs, the atmosphere will destabilize over the course of the day with good wind shear profiles over the region. Warmer temperatures aloft and the lack of a trigger will keep the atmosphere capped for a good portion of the day across the region and this will mean little in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity during the day. As we get into late this afternoon and this evening, an impulse will approach the region from southern Canada and this may allow for the cap to be broken allowing for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The threat is conditional on the impulse being able to break the cap and tap into the unstable environment and wind shear aloft. Models seem to indicate that Southern New Hampshire and Eastern Massachusetts may be an area to watch though all areas should monitor the situation. As stated in this coordination message and prior messages, much of the region will remain dry but isolated to scattered locations could receive a shower or thunderstorm and a couple to few locations could see a strong to severe thunderstorm.
SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor the severe weather potential for later Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Evening. Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely for the same time period. This will be the last full coordination message on today’s threat. Given the 4th of July holiday and many outdoor activities, a shortened coordination message will be issued later today, likely prior to or around 800 PM this evening, either indicating the threat is cleared or if Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated or SKYWARN Self-Activation is actively monitoring activity over the region. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org