Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 9/8/12 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all..
..Potential remains for a significant severe weather outbreak across portions of Western and Central New England from Western Middlesex County Massachusetts through Eastern New York State, most of Southern New Hampshire, and most of Connecticut, particularly Western and Central Connecticut. Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely in Eastern New England from Eastern Connecticut through Rhode Island, Eastern Massachusetts and Southeast New Hampshire..
..The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has continued a Moderate Risk for severe weather over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts, and Western and Central Connecticut and a Slight Risk for severe weather exists for Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Eastern Massachusetts into Southeast New Hampshire. Widespread pockets of damaging winds, large hail, urban and poor drainage flooding and an isolated tornado risk are the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM ET Saturday with the threat timeframe being mid-afternoon through late evening..
..ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of this weather situation and seek consultation from local leaderhsip..
Satellite imagery is showing clouds with some breaks over the region and similar breaks with clouds over New York and the Mid-Atlantic area. The clouds are expected to thin out a bit more which should allow for sufficient heating and destablization with very strong wind shear over the area for a potentially significant severe weather outbreak. SPC has continued with a moderate risk for severe weather over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts, and Western and Central Connecticut and a Slight Risk for severe weather exists for Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Eastern Massachusetts into Southeast New Hampshire. Widespread pockets of damaging winds, large hail, urban and poor drainage flooding and an isolated tornado risk are the primary threats.
The expected scenario is that isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will organize during the afternoon and early evening hours and these could be discreet supercells capable of damaging winds, large hail, urban and poor drainage flooding and the isolated tornado threat would be maximized with these discreet cells. As we get toward early to mid evening, a squall line of severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds of at least 60 MPH and possibly over 70 MPH, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding will sweep through the region. The activity will be strongest over the Moderate Risk area but could also affect the Slight Risk area of Eastern New England in a weaker state as the cold front sweeps offshore of the region by Sunday Morning. The squall line is likely the biggest threat in today’s expected severe weather scenario but isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms out ahead of the squall line may pose the risk of an isolated tornado.
As mentioned in the prior coordination message, there are some factors to be contended with that could mitigate the threat. Some of the factors here include:
1.) Sufficient clearing to allow for heating and destablization over the course of the day Saturday across the region or the ability of jet dynamics and strong wind shear that is expected to accompany to cold front to overcome any potential lack of heating.
2.) Cold frontal timing may be past peak heating of the day which could be a mitigating factor unless favorably strong wind shear profiles have the ability to compensate for frontal timing if past peak heating.
It is noted that a previous moderate risk for severe weather earlier this summer resulted in no severe weather over the area. The factors in this scenario are different and appear a bit more favorable. Also, in general, the last 3 of 4 moderate risk areas have verified over our area and in the case of the last moderate risk area, it was verified across New York and the mid atlantic states.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM ET Saturday lasting through early Sunday Morning. The threat for severe weather is centered anytime from mid-afternoon through late evening. ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of this weather situation and seek consultation from local leaderhsip. This will likely be the last coordination message for this potential severe weather event as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Public Severe Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and SPC Experimental Briefing from 600 AM today that will not be updated again but could be a useful briefing tool:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Public Severe Weather Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC Experimental Multimedia Briefing in MP4 Format:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.mp4
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Hello to all..
..Potential remains for a significant severe weather outbreak across portions of Western and Central New England from Western Middlesex County Massachusetts through Eastern New York State, most of Southern New Hampshire, and most of Connecticut, particularly Western and Central Connecticut. Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely in Eastern New England from Eastern Connecticut through Rhode Island, Eastern Massachusetts and Southeast New Hampshire..
..The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has continued a Moderate Risk for severe weather over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts, and Western and Central Connecticut and a Slight Risk for severe weather exists for Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Eastern Massachusetts into Southeast New Hampshire. Widespread pockets of damaging winds, large hail, urban and poor drainage flooding and an isolated tornado risk are the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM ET Saturday with the threat timeframe being mid-afternoon through late evening..
..ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of this weather situation and seek consultation from local leaderhsip..
Satellite imagery is showing clouds with some breaks over the region and similar breaks with clouds over New York and the Mid-Atlantic area. The clouds are expected to thin out a bit more which should allow for sufficient heating and destablization with very strong wind shear over the area for a potentially significant severe weather outbreak. SPC has continued with a moderate risk for severe weather over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts, and Western and Central Connecticut and a Slight Risk for severe weather exists for Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Eastern Massachusetts into Southeast New Hampshire. Widespread pockets of damaging winds, large hail, urban and poor drainage flooding and an isolated tornado risk are the primary threats.
The expected scenario is that isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will organize during the afternoon and early evening hours and these could be discreet supercells capable of damaging winds, large hail, urban and poor drainage flooding and the isolated tornado threat would be maximized with these discreet cells. As we get toward early to mid evening, a squall line of severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds of at least 60 MPH and possibly over 70 MPH, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding will sweep through the region. The activity will be strongest over the Moderate Risk area but could also affect the Slight Risk area of Eastern New England in a weaker state as the cold front sweeps offshore of the region by Sunday Morning. The squall line is likely the biggest threat in today’s expected severe weather scenario but isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms out ahead of the squall line may pose the risk of an isolated tornado.
As mentioned in the prior coordination message, there are some factors to be contended with that could mitigate the threat. Some of the factors here include:
1.) Sufficient clearing to allow for heating and destablization over the course of the day Saturday across the region or the ability of jet dynamics and strong wind shear that is expected to accompany to cold front to overcome any potential lack of heating.
2.) Cold frontal timing may be past peak heating of the day which could be a mitigating factor unless favorably strong wind shear profiles have the ability to compensate for frontal timing if past peak heating.
It is noted that a previous moderate risk for severe weather earlier this summer resulted in no severe weather over the area. The factors in this scenario are different and appear a bit more favorable. Also, in general, the last 3 of 4 moderate risk areas have verified over our area and in the case of the last moderate risk area, it was verified across New York and the mid atlantic states.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM ET Saturday lasting through early Sunday Morning. The threat for severe weather is centered anytime from mid-afternoon through late evening. ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of this weather situation and seek consultation from local leaderhsip. This will likely be the last coordination message for this potential severe weather event as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Public Severe Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and SPC Experimental Briefing from 600 AM today that will not be updated again but could be a useful briefing tool:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Public Severe Weather Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC Experimental Multimedia Briefing in MP4 Format:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.mp4
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org