Hurricane Sandy Coordination Message #2

October 25, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Hurricane Sandy pounded Eastern Jamaica as a category-1 hurricane and pounded Eastern Cuba as a strong category-2 hurricane and is now taking aim on the Bahamas with tropical storm to hurricane force conditions likely in these areas. Sandy is expected to become a large storm system off the US East Coast of either tropical nature or of hybrid (both tropical and non-tropical) nature with potential significant impacts to much of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area in the late Sunday Night through Tuesday timeframe..
..Multiple reliable computer weather models depict a powerful storm system of large and severe nature taking aim on portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast. The potential exists for either a close pass from the storm resulting in strong to damaging winds, minor to moderate coastal flooding and isolated to scattered power outages or for a direct hit with strong to damaging and possibly hurricane force winds with possibly widespread downed trees and wires and power outages, significant beach erosion and coastal storm surge flooding over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall for the region. Again, the timeframe for potential impact will be in the late Sunday Night through Tuesday timeframe..
..Interests in Southern New England should continue monitoring the progress of Hurricane Sandy. The National Hurricane Center Advisories are now requesting interests along the entire US East Coast to closely monitor the progress of Sandy and the ‘cone of uncertainity’ on the track of Sandy is reaching portions of the Southern New England coast..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely as early as late Sunday Night through potentially Tuesday..
..ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership..

Hurricane Sandy caused high end tropical storm to low-end hurricane force conditions across Eastern Jamaica and affected portions of Eastern Cuba as a strong Category-2 hurricane. Sandy is now taking aim on and the Bahamas region. Sandy is then expected to move parallel but offshore of the US East Coast. Multiple computer models are depicting a scenario where Sandy, either as a tropical system or a hybrid/nor’easter system with both tropical and non-tropical characteristics tracks into either the northern mid-atlantic or Southern New England providing either a moderate to severe impact to the region. A scenario where Sandy moves out to sea continues to lessen as multiple models are agreeing on a solution with an impact to the Northeast and US Mid-Atlantic coasts.

The two more likely scenarios at this time are either a storm that causes a direct hit on the northern mid-atlantic where Southern New England sees a moderate impact of strong to damaging winds, isolated to scattered power outages and minor to moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall. The other scenario is one that tracks Sandy directly into Southern New England which would mean damaging to hurricane force winds, significant beach erosion and severe coastal flooding over several high tide cycles and even heavier rainfall. As stated previously, an out to sea track now seems the least likely track given model solutions tracking closer to the region.

The Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, WX4NHC, the VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net were active much of Wednesday for Sandy’s impact on Jamaica and Eastern Cuba and up into the Central and Northwest Bahamas. WX4NHC and the Hurricane Watch Net may be active again today for impacts on the Bahamas. See their respective net links for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Sandy. People should gradually begin reviewing their preparedness measures for storm force or tropical storm to hurricane force conditions as a precaution. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips via the link below:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely as early as late Sunday Night through potentially Tuesday. ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership.

Once again, Hurricane Sandy should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England. The latest NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory information on Hurricane Sandy are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Sandy Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

The next coordination message will likely be posted some time either Thursday Evening or Friday Morning pending further computer model data on the track of Sandy and significant updates to Sandy’s status as a tropical system from an intensity and transition to a hybrid system perspective.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org