Storm Coordination Message #1 – Monday 11/17/14 Storm Potential
Hello to all..
..Strong Storm System will affect the west-central interior portions of Southern New England with a light wintry mix. Much of Southern New England will see heavy rainfall. Strong to damaging winds are likely in Southeastern New England..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 3 AM-1 PM Monday for Southern New Hampshire, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Northern Worcester, and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for up to 1″ of snow along with a coating to a tenth inch of ice resulting in slippery travel during this time period..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands from 3-11 PM Monday for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 55-60 MPH likely. These winds will be sufficient for scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 3-10 PM Monday for Southeast Providence, Eastern Kent, Bristol, Newport and Washington Counties of Rhode Island and Bristol ad Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH likely. These winds will be sufficient for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for the light wintry mix in west-central New England. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely anytime after 1-2 PM lasting through 10-11 PM for the strong to damaging wind and heavy rainfall potential..
A strong storm system will track into Southern New England Monday into Monday Evening. The storm will bring a light wintry mix changing to rain over western and central New England, heavy rainfall in Eastern New England and strong to damaging winds in Southeastern New England. The headlines indicate the latest expectations for this storm system. Regarding the heavy rainfall across much of Southern New England, rainfall amounts of 1-2″ are likely region wide with portions of Southeast New England seeing isolated 2-3″ rainfall amounts. This rainfall could result in urban and poor drainage flooding in the typical locations.
Regarding the strong to damaging wind threat, the headlines depict the current expectation. The wind threat is contingent on a few factors:
1.) Temperatures in the Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning area. If they get into the 60s as expected, that will realize the strong to damaging wind threat.
2.) Strength of the low level winds. Some models have a stronger lower level wind field than others and the low level jet strength will depict the extent of the strong to damaging wind event. The current High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory reflects current thinking.
3.) Any heavy convective showers or possibly even thunderstorms that can organize in Southeast New England. These convective showers and thunderstorms would assist with bringing the stronger winds on to the surface.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for the light wintry mix in west-central New England during Monday Morning into the early afternoon. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely anytime after 1-2 PM lasting through 10-11 PM for the strong to damaging wind and heavy rainfall potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all..
..Strong Storm System will affect the west-central interior portions of Southern New England with a light wintry mix. Much of Southern New England will see heavy rainfall. Strong to damaging winds are likely in Southeastern New England..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 3 AM-1 PM Monday for Southern New Hampshire, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Northern Worcester, and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for up to 1″ of snow along with a coating to a tenth inch of ice resulting in slippery travel during this time period..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands from 3-11 PM Monday for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 55-60 MPH likely. These winds will be sufficient for scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 3-10 PM Monday for Southeast Providence, Eastern Kent, Bristol, Newport and Washington Counties of Rhode Island and Bristol ad Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH likely. These winds will be sufficient for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for the light wintry mix in west-central New England. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely anytime after 1-2 PM lasting through 10-11 PM for the strong to damaging wind and heavy rainfall potential..
A strong storm system will track into Southern New England Monday into Monday Evening. The storm will bring a light wintry mix changing to rain over western and central New England, heavy rainfall in Eastern New England and strong to damaging winds in Southeastern New England. The headlines indicate the latest expectations for this storm system. Regarding the heavy rainfall across much of Southern New England, rainfall amounts of 1-2″ are likely region wide with portions of Southeast New England seeing isolated 2-3″ rainfall amounts. This rainfall could result in urban and poor drainage flooding in the typical locations.
Regarding the strong to damaging wind threat, the headlines depict the current expectation. The wind threat is contingent on a few factors:
1.) Temperatures in the Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning area. If they get into the 60s as expected, that will realize the strong to damaging wind threat.
2.) Strength of the low level winds. Some models have a stronger lower level wind field than others and the low level jet strength will depict the extent of the strong to damaging wind event. The current High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory reflects current thinking.
3.) Any heavy convective showers or possibly even thunderstorms that can organize in Southeast New England. These convective showers and thunderstorms would assist with bringing the stronger winds on to the surface.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for the light wintry mix in west-central New England during Monday Morning into the early afternoon. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely anytime after 1-2 PM lasting through 10-11 PM for the strong to damaging wind and heavy rainfall potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box