Blizzard Coordination Message #1 – Monday Evening 1/26/15-Wednesday Morning 1/28/15 Blizzard/Major Winter Storm Potential
Hello to all..
..Potential Major Winter Storm/Blizzard with the potential for a Historic Storm for all of Southern New England Monday Evening through late Tuesday Night, possibly extending into Wednesday Morning. Preparations for this major system should be completed by late Monday Afternoon/early evening at the latest..
..A Blizzard Watch is now in effect for Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts northwest of the Cape Cod Canal from Monday Evening to late Tuesday Night for 18-24″ of snow, a band of isolated higher amounts likely and sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher gusts likely. The strong to damaging winds coupled with heavy snow will create blizzard conditions and the potential for scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. The damage will likely be the most significant if the strongest winds at the coastline couple with a heavy wet snow near a possible rain/snow transition line..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Northern Connecticut and Western and Central Massachusetts from Monday Evening to late Tuesday Night for 12-24″ of snow, isolated higher amounts possible and winds sustained at 10-20 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH and a period of near blizzard conditions. There is a potential for some of this region to be upgraded to a Blizzard Watch/Warning in future forecasts..
..A Winter Storm Watch and High Wind Watch is now in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands from Monday Evening through late Tuesday Night for 7-14″ of snow and sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 70 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. A period of near blizzard conditions is likely in this area. It is unclear at this time whether precipitation will remain all snow which is why this region is under a Winter Storm Watch. If precipitation remains all or mostly snow then the Winter Storm Watch for some or all of this region will be upgraded to a Blizzard Watch/Warning in future forecasts with snowfall amounts increased. Regardless of the type of watch/warning issuance, there is a significant risk for numerous tree and wire damage reports and power outages in this area..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for widespread moderate to potentially isolated pockets of major coastal flooding with considerable beach erosion for the early Tuesday Morning and late Tuesday Afternoon high tide cycles. This means numerous road closures, flooded basements and the possibility of isolated structural damage from coastal flooding..
..Storm pictures and video of snowfall measurements, wind and coastal damage will be very helpful for situational awareness/disaster intelligence purposes benefiting the National Weather Service, Emergency Management, the media, and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs). They can be sent via our WX1BOX Facebook, Twitter feed, as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the pictures unless otherwise noted. Pictures can be sent during and after the storm. Please do not compromise safety to get these pictures and video..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence Monday Evening and last through at least late Tuesday Night with overnight operations active at least Monday Night and possibly Tuesday Night. Amateur Radio Emergency Services (ARES)/Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Services Groups (RACES) should closely monitor the progress of this potential major winter storm/blizzard which could be a historic storm for the region and seek advice from local ARES/RACES/EMCOMM leaders..
Computer weather models over the course of Saturday have coalesced around a potentially significant major winter storm and blizzard for Southern New England. The storm onset is approximately 36-48 hours away as well which means preparation for this potentially historic storm is somewhat condensed. The headlines of this coordination message depicts the current threats to the region. This is a high confidence forecast on the general theme for the region though specific details need to be worked out. Those specific details include:
1.) At this time, portions of Cape Cod and the Islands could see a mix or changeover to rain at the height of the storm and this could reduce the amount of snow but as seen in the February 2013 blizzard, this could mean a very heavy wet snow and combined with damaging wind gusts up to 70 MPH with possibly even higher gusts, this could create significant storm impact to trees, power lines and result in numerous power outages. A slightly more offshore track may result in heavier snow amounts but remaining heavy and wet in most of the area still creating the risk for numerous damage reports and power outages..
2.) For the southeastern portions of the Blizzard Watch area near the immediate south and east coasts of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, this region is closest to an overlap of damaging winds with heavy wet snow and could also be an area of enhanced damage. A slightly further offshore solution may keep this risk along the immediate coast. This will bear close watching.
3.) Within the Blizzard Watch area, a band of heavier snow is likely within the widespread area of 18-24″ of snow. Future model runs and trends will help delineate where that will setup. This may extend into part of the Winter Storm Watch area that are close to the western end of the current Blizzard Watch area.
4.) For western and central portions of the NWS Taunton coverage area under a Winter Storm Watch, areas closest to the current Blizzard Watch area could see an upgrade to a Blizzard Watch/Warning area depending on the track of this major storm system. There is also the chance that the track is slightly further offshore which would mean western most areas would still see 6″ or more of snow but not quite as much as 12-24″. Areas of the Winter Storm Watch closest to the Blizzard watch area are quite likely to see 12-24″ of snow with isolated higher amounts likely.
People should prepare for this major storm similar to other past major winter storms for the region. Have plenty of batteries and battery powered equipment on hand and test out this equipment and any generator equipment and have non-perishable food items. Make sure you have gas for your generator as well. If it turns out that you do not lose power in the storm, you will be better prepared for the next storm system.
Storm pictures and video of snowfall measurements, wind and coastal damage will be very helpful for situational awareness/disaster intelligence purposes benefiting the National Weather Service, Emergency Management, the media, and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs). They can be sent via our WX1BOX Facebook, Twitter feed, as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the pictures unless otherwise noted. Pictures can be sent during and after the storm. Please do not compromise safety to get these pictures and video.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence Monday Evening and last through at least late Tuesday Night with overnight operations active at least Monday Night and possibly Tuesday Night. Amateur Radio Emergency Services (ARES)/Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Services Groups (RACES) should closely monitor the progress of this potential major winter storm/blizzard which could be a historic storm for the region and seek advice from local ARES/RACES/EMCOMM leaders. The next coordination message will be posted by 11 PM this Sunday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics and Winter Weather Preparedness Safety Tips from the 2014 Winter Weather Preparedness Week:
NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/2015.01.25_AM.png
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Preparedness Week Statements:
http://www.weather.gov/box/WinterWeatherPreparednessWeek
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/winter_weather_preparedness_11_8_14.txt
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all..
..Potential Major Winter Storm/Blizzard with the potential for a Historic Storm for all of Southern New England Monday Evening through late Tuesday Night, possibly extending into Wednesday Morning. Preparations for this major system should be completed by late Monday Afternoon/early evening at the latest..
..A Blizzard Watch is now in effect for Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts northwest of the Cape Cod Canal from Monday Evening to late Tuesday Night for 18-24″ of snow, a band of isolated higher amounts likely and sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher gusts likely. The strong to damaging winds coupled with heavy snow will create blizzard conditions and the potential for scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. The damage will likely be the most significant if the strongest winds at the coastline couple with a heavy wet snow near a possible rain/snow transition line..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Northern Connecticut and Western and Central Massachusetts from Monday Evening to late Tuesday Night for 12-24″ of snow, isolated higher amounts possible and winds sustained at 10-20 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH and a period of near blizzard conditions. There is a potential for some of this region to be upgraded to a Blizzard Watch/Warning in future forecasts..
..A Winter Storm Watch and High Wind Watch is now in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands from Monday Evening through late Tuesday Night for 7-14″ of snow and sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 70 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. A period of near blizzard conditions is likely in this area. It is unclear at this time whether precipitation will remain all snow which is why this region is under a Winter Storm Watch. If precipitation remains all or mostly snow then the Winter Storm Watch for some or all of this region will be upgraded to a Blizzard Watch/Warning in future forecasts with snowfall amounts increased. Regardless of the type of watch/warning issuance, there is a significant risk for numerous tree and wire damage reports and power outages in this area..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for widespread moderate to potentially isolated pockets of major coastal flooding with considerable beach erosion for the early Tuesday Morning and late Tuesday Afternoon high tide cycles. This means numerous road closures, flooded basements and the possibility of isolated structural damage from coastal flooding..
..Storm pictures and video of snowfall measurements, wind and coastal damage will be very helpful for situational awareness/disaster intelligence purposes benefiting the National Weather Service, Emergency Management, the media, and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs). They can be sent via our WX1BOX Facebook, Twitter feed, as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the pictures unless otherwise noted. Pictures can be sent during and after the storm. Please do not compromise safety to get these pictures and video..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence Monday Evening and last through at least late Tuesday Night with overnight operations active at least Monday Night and possibly Tuesday Night. Amateur Radio Emergency Services (ARES)/Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Services Groups (RACES) should closely monitor the progress of this potential major winter storm/blizzard which could be a historic storm for the region and seek advice from local ARES/RACES/EMCOMM leaders..
Computer weather models over the course of Saturday have coalesced around a potentially significant major winter storm and blizzard for Southern New England. The storm onset is approximately 36-48 hours away as well which means preparation for this potentially historic storm is somewhat condensed. The headlines of this coordination message depicts the current threats to the region. This is a high confidence forecast on the general theme for the region though specific details need to be worked out. Those specific details include:
1.) At this time, portions of Cape Cod and the Islands could see a mix or changeover to rain at the height of the storm and this could reduce the amount of snow but as seen in the February 2013 blizzard, this could mean a very heavy wet snow and combined with damaging wind gusts up to 70 MPH with possibly even higher gusts, this could create significant storm impact to trees, power lines and result in numerous power outages. A slightly more offshore track may result in heavier snow amounts but remaining heavy and wet in most of the area still creating the risk for numerous damage reports and power outages..
2.) For the southeastern portions of the Blizzard Watch area near the immediate south and east coasts of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, this region is closest to an overlap of damaging winds with heavy wet snow and could also be an area of enhanced damage. A slightly further offshore solution may keep this risk along the immediate coast. This will bear close watching.
3.) Within the Blizzard Watch area, a band of heavier snow is likely within the widespread area of 18-24″ of snow. Future model runs and trends will help delineate where that will setup. This may extend into part of the Winter Storm Watch area that are close to the western end of the current Blizzard Watch area.
4.) For western and central portions of the NWS Taunton coverage area under a Winter Storm Watch, areas closest to the current Blizzard Watch area could see an upgrade to a Blizzard Watch/Warning area depending on the track of this major storm system. There is also the chance that the track is slightly further offshore which would mean western most areas would still see 6″ or more of snow but not quite as much as 12-24″. Areas of the Winter Storm Watch closest to the Blizzard watch area are quite likely to see 12-24″ of snow with isolated higher amounts likely.
People should prepare for this major storm similar to other past major winter storms for the region. Have plenty of batteries and battery powered equipment on hand and test out this equipment and any generator equipment and have non-perishable food items. Make sure you have gas for your generator as well. If it turns out that you do not lose power in the storm, you will be better prepared for the next storm system.
Storm pictures and video of snowfall measurements, wind and coastal damage will be very helpful for situational awareness/disaster intelligence purposes benefiting the National Weather Service, Emergency Management, the media, and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs). They can be sent via our WX1BOX Facebook, Twitter feed, as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the pictures unless otherwise noted. Pictures can be sent during and after the storm. Please do not compromise safety to get these pictures and video.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence Monday Evening and last through at least late Tuesday Night with overnight operations active at least Monday Night and possibly Tuesday Night. Amateur Radio Emergency Services (ARES)/Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Services Groups (RACES) should closely monitor the progress of this potential major winter storm/blizzard which could be a historic storm for the region and seek advice from local ARES/RACES/EMCOMM leaders. The next coordination message will be posted by 11 PM this Sunday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics and Winter Weather Preparedness Safety Tips from the 2014 Winter Weather Preparedness Week:
NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/2015.01.25_AM.png
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Preparedness Week Statements:
http://www.weather.gov/box/WinterWeatherPreparednessWeek
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/winter_weather_preparedness_11_8_14.txt
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box