Storm and Hurricane Joaquin Coordination Message #5

October 2, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Another storm system will have the potential to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to Southeast New England and another threat of minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Friday Afternoon for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect from 2 AM Friday to 2 AM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH for Nantucket Island. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI from 2 PM Friday through 2 AM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Wind Gusts in East and South Coastal of Massachusetts may reach 40 MPH through the day Friday..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from 1-5 PM EDT Friday Afternoon for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Friday Afternoon high tide..
..Focus then shifts to Hurricane Joaquin. Models consensus has shifted east over the course of Thursday but there is still wide model spread and we remain around 4 days out from impact, if any, from Joaquin and interests in Southern New England should closely monitor the progress of Joaquin..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the Friday storm system. SKYWARN Activation status for late this weekend into early next week will depend on storm conditions and the timing and any threat of Hurricane Joaquin..

Thursday’s high tide cycle brought minor splashover and a few shore road closures in parts of East Coastal Massachusetts. Also, late Thursday evening, wind gusts in the 40-45 MPH range have been observed on Nantucket Island and parts of East Coastal Massachusetts ahead of the next storm system.

On Friday, another storm system will have the potential to bring strong winds and another 1-3″ of rainfall. At this time, this looks centered across Southeast New England to maybe as far north as the Mass Pike and south to the coast. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 2 AM Friday to 2 AM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH for Nantucket Island. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI from 2 PM Friday through 2 AM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Wind Gusts in East and South Coastal of Massachusetts may reach 40 MPH through the day Friday. There is the potential that these strong winds could continue into Saturday and will be monitored.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from 1-5 PM EDT Friday Afternoon for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Friday Afternoon high tide. The stronger winds especially over Cape Cod and the Islands may result in a few more minor coastal flood reports than what occurred Thursday.

This brings us to the tougher part of the time period of active weather which is Hurricane Joaquin. Joaquin remains a major hurricane and is pummeling the Bahamas with an extended period of hurricane force conditions. Joaquin is expected to hold its intensity over the next couple days followed by slow weakening. The general model trend through the day Thursday has kept trending eastward with a bit more consensus in the model guidance pointing to an offshore solution, however, there remains several reliable hurricane and operational models that keep a track closer to the US East Coast and we remain 4 days away from impact, if any, from Hurricane Joaquin and the interaction of Joaquin with the stalled out cold front, an upper low moving into the Southeast US and the high pressure system to the east of the ridge is quite complex and fluctuations in model tracks may continue to occur. Interests in Southern New England should continue to monitor the track of Hurricane Joaquin through Friday Evening and into Saturday Morning to see if the current trend holds or if changes occur. The spread in the model consensus continues to be large though not as large as earlier this morning. Additional synoptic scale missions will occur today into Friday with data ingested into the next model suites which should hopefully provide better guidance and better consensus in the model data. The key messages as listed in the Technical Forecast Discussion from the National Hurricane Center best describe the concerns for Hurricane Joaquin particularly with the active weather pattern of this week that has developed over the region.

It is noted that National Hurricane Center Director, Dr. Rick Knabb and FEMA Administrator, KK4INZ-Craig Fugate both praised the efforts of WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, and the Hurricane Watch Net which are active with Hurricane Joaquin pummeling the Bahamas. The VoIP Hurricane Net has no paths directly to Amateur Radio Operators in the Bahamas but have been monitoring social media and the storm bloggers site, stormcarib.com to gather additional reports from the Bahamas. Links to the NHC director’s comments, KK4INZ-Craig Fugate’s comments and the Hurricane Net Operations can be seen via the links below:

KK4INZ-Craig Fugate visit to WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
https://twitter.com/CraigatFEMA/status/649659043489935360

Dr. Rick Knabb – Director of National Hurricane Center Comments:
https://twitter.com/NHCDirector/status/649671276609585152

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the Friday storm system. SKYWARN Activation status for late this weekend into early next week will depend on storm conditions and the timing and any threat of Hurricane Joaquin. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Friday. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook followed by the Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Statements:

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Information:

Hurricane Joaquin Public Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast/Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
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Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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