Storm Coordination Message #2 – Sunday Mid-Late Afternoon 3/20/16-Monday Morning 3/21/16 Winter Storm Potential
Hello to all..
..Uncertainty higher than normal over intensity and track of coastal storm though models gradually coalescing on a solution with the heaviest snowfall in Southeast New England where Winter Storm Watches are posted and possibly extending into Essex County Massachusetts. Lighter snowfall amounts (advisory level snow) is possible in Northeast Connecticut and Central Massachusetts with Essex County Massachusetts on the line between lighter versus heavier snow totals. Model runs through the overnight should get a better handle on the storm situation for mid to late Afternoon Sunday into Monday Morning..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Sunday Afternoon through Monday Morning from Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts through Southeast Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands and all of Rhode Island except for Block Island for 4-8″ of snow. The snow is expected to be heavy and wet and with the expected wet snow and wind gusts to 30-40 MPH, if higher snow amounts within the currently forecasted snow total range occur, isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages could occur. The heaviest snow should fall later Sunday Evening into Monday Morning. Some impact to the Monday Morning commute is possible to likely. The heaviest snow will either fall overnight or possibly into Monday Morning depending on the timing and evolution of the storm..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be likely to monitor this storm system. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible though given the heaviest snow is happening during overnight hours into early Monday Morning and is currently expected to be around 6-8″ over southeast New England, self-activation may be best for this system..
The headlines of this coordination message reflect the current thinking on this coastal storm system. Model trends were east over the course of the day Friday into early Saturday. Current model runs reflect a halt to that eastward trend and even pushed back to the west a bit. Additional model runs into Sunday Morning should give greater detail and confidence on the storm scenario. The key risks for this storm will be the wet snow coupled with winds of 30-40 MPH causing isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages particularly if snow amounts are in the 6-8″ range or higher. Stronger winds to wind advisory or higher levels are currently not expected but will be monitored. Coastal flood threat is low due to winds not being terribly strong and the winds coinciding with low tide. Rapid intensification of the storm system too far east of Southern New England should spare the region these other threats though it continues to be watched.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will be likely to monitor this storm system. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible though given the heaviest snow is happening during overnight hours into early Monday Morning and is currently expected to be around 6-8″ over southeast New England, self-activation may be best for this system. Another coordination message will be posted by Noon Sunday. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics.
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #:(508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all..
..Uncertainty higher than normal over intensity and track of coastal storm though models gradually coalescing on a solution with the heaviest snowfall in Southeast New England where Winter Storm Watches are posted and possibly extending into Essex County Massachusetts. Lighter snowfall amounts (advisory level snow) is possible in Northeast Connecticut and Central Massachusetts with Essex County Massachusetts on the line between lighter versus heavier snow totals. Model runs through the overnight should get a better handle on the storm situation for mid to late Afternoon Sunday into Monday Morning..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Sunday Afternoon through Monday Morning from Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts through Southeast Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands and all of Rhode Island except for Block Island for 4-8″ of snow. The snow is expected to be heavy and wet and with the expected wet snow and wind gusts to 30-40 MPH, if higher snow amounts within the currently forecasted snow total range occur, isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages could occur. The heaviest snow should fall later Sunday Evening into Monday Morning. Some impact to the Monday Morning commute is possible to likely. The heaviest snow will either fall overnight or possibly into Monday Morning depending on the timing and evolution of the storm..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be likely to monitor this storm system. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible though given the heaviest snow is happening during overnight hours into early Monday Morning and is currently expected to be around 6-8″ over southeast New England, self-activation may be best for this system..
The headlines of this coordination message reflect the current thinking on this coastal storm system. Model trends were east over the course of the day Friday into early Saturday. Current model runs reflect a halt to that eastward trend and even pushed back to the west a bit. Additional model runs into Sunday Morning should give greater detail and confidence on the storm scenario. The key risks for this storm will be the wet snow coupled with winds of 30-40 MPH causing isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages particularly if snow amounts are in the 6-8″ range or higher. Stronger winds to wind advisory or higher levels are currently not expected but will be monitored. Coastal flood threat is low due to winds not being terribly strong and the winds coinciding with low tide. Rapid intensification of the storm system too far east of Southern New England should spare the region these other threats though it continues to be watched.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will be likely to monitor this storm system. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible though given the heaviest snow is happening during overnight hours into early Monday Morning and is currently expected to be around 6-8″ over southeast New England, self-activation may be best for this system. Another coordination message will be posted by Noon Sunday. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics.
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #:(508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box