Storm Coordination Message #4 – Thursday 12/29/16-Friday Morning 12/30/16 Winter Storm Potential
Hello to all…
..Nor’easter will bring significant snowfall to interior Southern New England with the possibility of the snow being heavy and wet and clinging to tree and power lines along with strong wind gusts leading to the potential of isolated to scattered tree and power line damage and isolated power outages in this area. As the nor’easter rapidly intensifies, strong to damaging winds are likely in Eastern New England particularly at the coast later Thursday Evening into Friday with isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages possible in those areas as well..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Franklin, Hampshire, Western Hampden, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts from 9 AM Thursday to 4 AM Friday for 5-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts to 12″ possible. The heaviest snow accumulations will be in the higher terrain around and above 1000 feet. Elevations below 1000 feet will see lesser snow amounts in the low end of the range or possibly in the 3-5″ range depending on how much rain if any mixes in with the snow. The snow will be heavy and wet and coupled with wind gusts of 40-50 MPH could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Eastern Hampden and Southern Worcester counties of Massachusetts from 9 AM Thursday Morning to 4 AM Friday Morning for 2-5″ of snow and wind gusts of 40-50 MPH. The snow will be heavy and wet and coupled with wind gusts of 40-50 MPH could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. This area continues to have the highest level of uncertainty on the snow amounts and how much rain occurs etc. but this reflects the current thinking..
..The Winter Weather Advisory for Hartford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut and Central Middlesex and Western Essex counties of Massachusetts has been cancelled. Snow amounts in this area will range from 1-3″ with much more rain expected in these areas based on the storm track. Parts of extreme Northwest Hartford County CT in the Hartland/Granby CT area could see some isolated amounts of 4″ of snow. This area also continues to have the highest level of uncertainty on the snow amounts and how much rain occurs etc. but this reflects the current thinking..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for all of Central and Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts of 50-55 MPH likely. The area that was under the High Wind Watch from Eastern Plymouth County through Northeast Massachusetts is the area where the highest winds could occur and a short-fused upgrade to a High Wind Warning is possible in that area if even stronger wind gusts become likely..
..Other areas outside of the Winter Storm Watch area away from the coast could see some snow accumulation but this is currently expected to be below advisory levels if there is any significant accumulation at all. This will depend on the track, speed and intensity of the storm and its ability to draw cold air into the region and the current track is slightly closer to the coast with more warm air over the area which has resulted in reduced snowfall amounts..
..It is noted that the IRLP link to the Route 2 corridor system in Northern Worcester County is not working. Amateur Radio Operators in Northern Worcester County are encouraged to provide reports on the 146.97-Paxton Repeater, 146.480-Worcester Repeater and the 448.625-Mount Wachusett Repeater which is a new repeater that is now up and running and functional (PL: Tone: 88.5 Hz with a minus offset). WX1BOX will also attempt to go on the Gardner Repeater directly but this may be difficult due to distance from the NWS office and storm conditions. Other Amateur Radio call-up nets are likely either late this morning or early this afternoon particularly in the Winter Storm Warning area on typical SKYWARN frequencies with some nets being brought up as winds increase in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island as required tonight..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence between 10 AM and Noon Thursday likely lasting through 3 or 4 AM Friday Morning..
A nor’easter is expected to significantly effect Southern New England Thursday Morning through Thursday Evening and the overnight hours into early Friday Morning. The headlines depict the latest thinking which includes some reduction in snowfall amounts particularly in the lower elevations of the Winter Storm Warning area and the dropping of Winter Weather Advisories in Middlesex and Western Essex County Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut. This is due to models insisting on somewhat warmer air in these areas and a slightly closer storm track. Strong to damaging winds are also a concern and the High Wind Watch has been converted to a Wind Advisory for all of Central and Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. There is still the potential for high wind warning criteria wind gusts in parts of Northeast Massachusetts that could result in a short fused issuance of a High Wind Warning for some portion of Northeast Massachusetts. Key factors for this storm and eventual snow amounts and areas impacted most significantly and wind intensity near and around the coast still include the following:
1.) Where the intensification occurs and how rapid. This is currently forecast to be close enough to Southern New England where the impacts as stated in the headlines are likely. This intensification is also likely to control how quickly cold air works into the region and determine how quickly areas that have rain changeover to snow as the storm system draws colder air from the northwest into the region.
2.) The eventual track of the storm and how close to Southern New England it gets. A closer track means less snow and more rain in eastern areas and the potential for a dry slot to work into western areas that would remain snow or possibly a mix of snow and sleet towards North-Central Connecticut. A track further offshore could bring heavier snow a bit further east but still away from the coast due to warm water temperatures.
3.) How much cooling occurs and if temperatures hover around freezing. This will determine the consistency of the snow, how wet it is and the potential damage from heavy wet snow accumulation.
4.) The intensification process and how rapid it is will also control the potential for strong to damaging winds along East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island, Cape Cod and the Islands and areas of interior Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. At this time, the potential is there for wind gusts of 50-55 MPH with isolated higher gusts.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence between 10 AM and Noon Thursday likely lasting through 3 or 4 AM Friday Morning. This will be the last coordination message as we move into Amateur Radio Operations mode. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all…
..Nor’easter will bring significant snowfall to interior Southern New England with the possibility of the snow being heavy and wet and clinging to tree and power lines along with strong wind gusts leading to the potential of isolated to scattered tree and power line damage and isolated power outages in this area. As the nor’easter rapidly intensifies, strong to damaging winds are likely in Eastern New England particularly at the coast later Thursday Evening into Friday with isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages possible in those areas as well..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Franklin, Hampshire, Western Hampden, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts from 9 AM Thursday to 4 AM Friday for 5-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts to 12″ possible. The heaviest snow accumulations will be in the higher terrain around and above 1000 feet. Elevations below 1000 feet will see lesser snow amounts in the low end of the range or possibly in the 3-5″ range depending on how much rain if any mixes in with the snow. The snow will be heavy and wet and coupled with wind gusts of 40-50 MPH could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Eastern Hampden and Southern Worcester counties of Massachusetts from 9 AM Thursday Morning to 4 AM Friday Morning for 2-5″ of snow and wind gusts of 40-50 MPH. The snow will be heavy and wet and coupled with wind gusts of 40-50 MPH could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. This area continues to have the highest level of uncertainty on the snow amounts and how much rain occurs etc. but this reflects the current thinking..
..The Winter Weather Advisory for Hartford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut and Central Middlesex and Western Essex counties of Massachusetts has been cancelled. Snow amounts in this area will range from 1-3″ with much more rain expected in these areas based on the storm track. Parts of extreme Northwest Hartford County CT in the Hartland/Granby CT area could see some isolated amounts of 4″ of snow. This area also continues to have the highest level of uncertainty on the snow amounts and how much rain occurs etc. but this reflects the current thinking..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for all of Central and Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts of 50-55 MPH likely. The area that was under the High Wind Watch from Eastern Plymouth County through Northeast Massachusetts is the area where the highest winds could occur and a short-fused upgrade to a High Wind Warning is possible in that area if even stronger wind gusts become likely..
..Other areas outside of the Winter Storm Watch area away from the coast could see some snow accumulation but this is currently expected to be below advisory levels if there is any significant accumulation at all. This will depend on the track, speed and intensity of the storm and its ability to draw cold air into the region and the current track is slightly closer to the coast with more warm air over the area which has resulted in reduced snowfall amounts..
..It is noted that the IRLP link to the Route 2 corridor system in Northern Worcester County is not working. Amateur Radio Operators in Northern Worcester County are encouraged to provide reports on the 146.97-Paxton Repeater, 146.480-Worcester Repeater and the 448.625-Mount Wachusett Repeater which is a new repeater that is now up and running and functional (PL: Tone: 88.5 Hz with a minus offset). WX1BOX will also attempt to go on the Gardner Repeater directly but this may be difficult due to distance from the NWS office and storm conditions. Other Amateur Radio call-up nets are likely either late this morning or early this afternoon particularly in the Winter Storm Warning area on typical SKYWARN frequencies with some nets being brought up as winds increase in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island as required tonight..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence between 10 AM and Noon Thursday likely lasting through 3 or 4 AM Friday Morning..
A nor’easter is expected to significantly effect Southern New England Thursday Morning through Thursday Evening and the overnight hours into early Friday Morning. The headlines depict the latest thinking which includes some reduction in snowfall amounts particularly in the lower elevations of the Winter Storm Warning area and the dropping of Winter Weather Advisories in Middlesex and Western Essex County Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut. This is due to models insisting on somewhat warmer air in these areas and a slightly closer storm track. Strong to damaging winds are also a concern and the High Wind Watch has been converted to a Wind Advisory for all of Central and Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. There is still the potential for high wind warning criteria wind gusts in parts of Northeast Massachusetts that could result in a short fused issuance of a High Wind Warning for some portion of Northeast Massachusetts. Key factors for this storm and eventual snow amounts and areas impacted most significantly and wind intensity near and around the coast still include the following:
1.) Where the intensification occurs and how rapid. This is currently forecast to be close enough to Southern New England where the impacts as stated in the headlines are likely. This intensification is also likely to control how quickly cold air works into the region and determine how quickly areas that have rain changeover to snow as the storm system draws colder air from the northwest into the region.
2.) The eventual track of the storm and how close to Southern New England it gets. A closer track means less snow and more rain in eastern areas and the potential for a dry slot to work into western areas that would remain snow or possibly a mix of snow and sleet towards North-Central Connecticut. A track further offshore could bring heavier snow a bit further east but still away from the coast due to warm water temperatures.
3.) How much cooling occurs and if temperatures hover around freezing. This will determine the consistency of the snow, how wet it is and the potential damage from heavy wet snow accumulation.
4.) The intensification process and how rapid it is will also control the potential for strong to damaging winds along East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island, Cape Cod and the Islands and areas of interior Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. At this time, the potential is there for wind gusts of 50-55 MPH with isolated higher gusts.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence between 10 AM and Noon Thursday likely lasting through 3 or 4 AM Friday Morning. This will be the last coordination message as we move into Amateur Radio Operations mode. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box