Blizzard/Storm Coordination Message #4 – Sunday 2/12/17-Monday Evening 2/13/17 Blizzard/Major Winter Storm Potential

February 12, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Powerful Coastal Storm will Affect the Region Sunday Through Monday bringing heavy snowfall, potential for blizzard conditions in portions of Southern New England, Strong to Damaging Winds in much of Southern New England and minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Sunday Afternoon and widespread moderate to isolated pockets of major coastal flooding for the Monday midday high tide. This will be a long duration storm system to affect the region..
..A Blizzard Watch remains in effect from late Sunday Night into Monday Evening and A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 4 AM Monday for Essex and Eastern Plymouth Counties. This is for total snowfall of 12-18″ for Essex County Massachusetts and 6-12 inches of snow for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts. The potential for whiteout conditions, blowing and drifting of snow, thundersnow, strong to damaging winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible, and blizzard conditions occurring later Sunday Night into Monday. The strong to damaging winds along with the potential for wet snow could cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered to numerous power outages over the region..
..A Blizzard Watch remains in effect from late Sunday Night through Monday Evening for Barnstable County and Nantucket for 4-6″ of snow and the potential for whiteout conditions, thundersnow, strong to damaging winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible and blizzard conditions. The strong to damaging winds along with the potential for wet snow could cause scattered pockets to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered to numerous power outages over the region. It is noted precipitation in this area will likely start as a wintry mix or rain before changing over to snow and becoming heavy which is why snow amounts in this area will be lighter. The timing of the transition and track of the storm could significantly change snow amounts in this area..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 7 PM Monday for Franklin, Northern Worcester, Hampshire and Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 12-16″ of snow and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 40 MPH. The combination of the strong winds and the snow at least starting out on the heavy and wet side could lead to isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Thundersnow is also possible especially in eastern areas of the warning later Sunday Night into Monday Morning..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 7 PM Monday for Hampden, Southern Worcester, Norfolk and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts for 8-12″ of snow and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 45-50 MPH strongest at the coast. The precipitation in this area is now expected to start as snow but could see some wintry mix Sunday Evening and then a changeover back to snow. The snow could be on the wet and heavy side especially at the start and along with the strong winds this could lead to scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered to numerous power outages particularly in eastern areas of the warning. Thundersnow is also possible especially in eastern areas of the warning later Sunday Night into Monday Morning..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect through 7 PM Monday for Northern Connecticut, Providence, Kent, and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island and Bristol and Western and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 40-50 MPH with higher wind gusts along the south coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island to 60 MPH. Precipitation will likely start as snow and then become a wintry mix or rain at times later Sunday Night before changing back to snow and there still could be a wet snow for a time. The combination of the wet snow and strong winds could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Thundersnow is also possible especially in eastern areas of the warning later Sunday Night into Monday..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 7 PM Monday for Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island and Martha’s Vineyard for 2-4″ of snow and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH with snow changing to a wintry mix/rain and then changing back to snow. The combination of the wet snow and strong winds could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Monday Morning through Monday Evening for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Block Island Rhode Island for sustained winds 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. These winds will likely cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 11 AM to 2 PM Sunday for Eastern Norfolk, Suffolk and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for minor coastal flooding at the time of the midday Sunday high tide for vulnerable shore roads in the area..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect from late Monday Morning to Monday Mid-Afternoon for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod, and Nantucket Island for widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding of shore roads across the area and the potential for widespread moderate to isolated pockets of major coastal flooding in the area from Sandwich to Eastham on Cape Cod on the North/Northwest facing areas..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely commence no later than 11 AM with overnight operations required through Monday Evening. ARES/RACES Groups in the Blizzard Watch and Coastal Flood Watch areas should closely monitor the progress of this system..
..Pictures and video of storm related damage from strong winds, wet snow and coastal flooding and whiteout/blizzard conditions can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook or Twitter feed or via the pics@nsradio.org email address with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter or Amateur Radio Operator for providing the material unless otherwise indicated..

There has not been much change to the headlines from last night except for the addition of a High Wind Watch for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island not covered by the Blizzard Watch as winds sustained at 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH are possible in this area with the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages there. The strong to damaging wind threat has become a bit higher confidence for coastal areas of Southern New England and extending into other parts of Eastern New England. Regarding blizzard conditions over the Blizzard Watch areas, there is still enough difference in the models where the watches have not been converted to Blizzard Warnings and will take additional model runs to sort through. The highest confidence in blizzard conditions is over the North Shore of Massachusetts. Again, the headlines of this message represent current thinking. Key factors for this upcoming major winter storm/blizzard potential and adjustments to watches, warnings and advisories include:

1.) The track of the system and how close intensification is to the Southern New England coast line. Since last night, one of the American models has gotten the closest to Southern New England with the European guidance a little further offshore and other models a bit further offshore. Again, a small, 50 mile difference in track could change outcomes especially in western and central parts of the region and in inland and south and east coastal areas of Eastern New England in terms of heavier snowfall and blizzard conditions.
2.) Colder temperatures have locked into much of the region away from Cape Cod and the Islands so much of the area will start off as snow with a wintry mix possible as we get into Sunday Night across Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island possibly extending as far north as Boston before a changeover to snow as the storm rapidly intensifies. This could impact snowfall amounts as well in the southern half of the area..
3.) The consistency of the snow and how long it remains wet snow will also factor into snow amounts but also factor into the amount of tree and power line damage and power outage potential and how large of an area it could cover in the region coupled with the strong to damaging winds.

Future model runs should bring clarity to these key factors and that will adjust the watches, warnings and advisories accordingly.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely commence no later than 11 AM with overnight operations required through Monday Evening. ARES/RACES Groups in the Blizzard Watch and Coastal Flood Watch areas should closely monitor the progress of this system. Another coordination message if time allows as we move into Operations mode will be posted Sunday Night. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard Watch/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Watch/Advisory Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Blizzard Watch/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch/Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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