Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 5/15/18 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely across interior Southern New England during the Tuesday mid-afternoon through early evening timeframe with the greatest risk over Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall causing localized urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the primary threats. An isolated tornado is a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut in a slight to enhanced risk for severe weather for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening and surrounding the slight to enhanced risk area there is a marginal risk for severe weather across interior Eastern New England. The timeframe for the severe weather potential is between 2-9 PM on Tuesday Afternoon/Evening..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely on Tuesday in the afternoon and evening hours..
An approaching cold front and secondary impulse in the atmosphere will move toward Southern New England during Tuesday Afternoon and evening. As it approaches, any morning showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two should clear the area and that should allow for good heating and destabilization and there will be strong winds aloft. This could allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to develop across interior Southern New England during the timeframe from 2-9 PM on Tuesday Afternoon/Evening. The headlines reflect the current thinking including the latest thinking from SPC in terms of risk areas for severe weather across Southern New England. Key factors on the severe weather potential for Tuesday includes:
1.) Expected clearing to allow for heating and destabilization across the current severe weather risk areas.
2.) Whether or not the main focus of severe weather is southwest of Southern New England or whether or not the current projection for higher severe weather probabilities will cover all of Southern New England as well as areas southwest of Southern New England. Some of this will be contingent on the heating and destabilization key factor highlighted in #1.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely on Tuesday in the afternoon and evening hours. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, and the SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day2otlk_20180514_1730.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…
..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely across interior Southern New England during the Tuesday mid-afternoon through early evening timeframe with the greatest risk over Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall causing localized urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the primary threats. An isolated tornado is a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut in a slight to enhanced risk for severe weather for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening and surrounding the slight to enhanced risk area there is a marginal risk for severe weather across interior Eastern New England. The timeframe for the severe weather potential is between 2-9 PM on Tuesday Afternoon/Evening..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely on Tuesday in the afternoon and evening hours..
An approaching cold front and secondary impulse in the atmosphere will move toward Southern New England during Tuesday Afternoon and evening. As it approaches, any morning showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two should clear the area and that should allow for good heating and destabilization and there will be strong winds aloft. This could allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to develop across interior Southern New England during the timeframe from 2-9 PM on Tuesday Afternoon/Evening. The headlines reflect the current thinking including the latest thinking from SPC in terms of risk areas for severe weather across Southern New England. Key factors on the severe weather potential for Tuesday includes:
1.) Expected clearing to allow for heating and destabilization across the current severe weather risk areas.
2.) Whether or not the main focus of severe weather is southwest of Southern New England or whether or not the current projection for higher severe weather probabilities will cover all of Southern New England as well as areas southwest of Southern New England. Some of this will be contingent on the heating and destabilization key factor highlighted in #1.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely on Tuesday in the afternoon and evening hours. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, and the SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day2otlk_20180514_1730.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box