Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 7/17/18 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential
Hello to all…
..Strong Cold front will bring an end to the intense heat and humidity today across Southern New England..
..Today’s heat and humidity will bring heat indices into the mid to upper 90s and a Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM to 5 PM Tuesday for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County Rhode Island, and Western Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex, Southern Worcester, Western Norfolk and Northern Bristol Counties of Massachusetts..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across much of Southern New England particularly interior locations for late Tuesday Morning through Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. An isolated tornado is a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England from the Boston to Providence corridor in a slight risk for severe weather and Southeast New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from Noon Tuesday through this evening for Northern Connecticut and Essex, Middlesex, Worcester, Franklin, Hampden and Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts for urban and poor drainage flash flooding potential..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 10-1030 AM Tuesday..
A strong cold front will sweep through Southern New England during the day Tuesday through Tuesday Night. Timing of the front looks reasonable to allow for daytime heating and sufficient instability in the region. Wind Shear profiles are looking slightly stronger and therefore will be sufficient coupled with dewpoints greater than 70 degrees to bring isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England with interior areas favored. The headlines outline the severe weather/flash flood potential. Key factors on the severe weather potential for Tuesday include the following:
1.) Any low clouds/fog or leftover overnight convection cloudiness breaks to allow for sufficient heating and destabilization for expected instability to be realized. With the exception of south coastal areas, satellite imagery shows widespread clearing which will allow sufficient heating and destabilization so this has increased the severe weather and flash flood potential.
2.) Cold frontal passage timing is at time of peak heating as expected and this timing looks correct and favorable for severe weather/flash flood potential.
3.) The secondary threat of an isolated tornado is centered along and north of Route 2 to the New Hampshire border where a great threat for storm rotation is noted. The main threats, however, remain damaging straightline winds and flash flooding.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will likely commence by 1000-1030 AM Tuesday. This will be the last coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all…
..Strong Cold front will bring an end to the intense heat and humidity today across Southern New England..
..Today’s heat and humidity will bring heat indices into the mid to upper 90s and a Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM to 5 PM Tuesday for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County Rhode Island, and Western Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex, Southern Worcester, Western Norfolk and Northern Bristol Counties of Massachusetts..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across much of Southern New England particularly interior locations for late Tuesday Morning through Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. An isolated tornado is a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England from the Boston to Providence corridor in a slight risk for severe weather and Southeast New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from Noon Tuesday through this evening for Northern Connecticut and Essex, Middlesex, Worcester, Franklin, Hampden and Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts for urban and poor drainage flash flooding potential..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 10-1030 AM Tuesday..
A strong cold front will sweep through Southern New England during the day Tuesday through Tuesday Night. Timing of the front looks reasonable to allow for daytime heating and sufficient instability in the region. Wind Shear profiles are looking slightly stronger and therefore will be sufficient coupled with dewpoints greater than 70 degrees to bring isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England with interior areas favored. The headlines outline the severe weather/flash flood potential. Key factors on the severe weather potential for Tuesday include the following:
1.) Any low clouds/fog or leftover overnight convection cloudiness breaks to allow for sufficient heating and destabilization for expected instability to be realized. With the exception of south coastal areas, satellite imagery shows widespread clearing which will allow sufficient heating and destabilization so this has increased the severe weather and flash flood potential.
2.) Cold frontal passage timing is at time of peak heating as expected and this timing looks correct and favorable for severe weather/flash flood potential.
3.) The secondary threat of an isolated tornado is centered along and north of Route 2 to the New Hampshire border where a great threat for storm rotation is noted. The main threats, however, remain damaging straightline winds and flash flooding.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will likely commence by 1000-1030 AM Tuesday. This will be the last coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box