July 2019

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 7/31/19 Severe Weather Potential

July 31, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible to likely today, Wednesday 7/31/19, in the afternoon and evening across much of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban to poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed all of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence at 230 PM through 9-10 PM today, Wednesday, 7/31/19 for the severe weather potential..

A cold front will make its way through Southern New England during the afternoon and evening hours. Strong heating will lead to high levels of instability. Winds shear will be marginal and cooling aloft is marginal. Those factors will preclude a more widespread severe weather event but isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should be more widespread than what was seen in the last few days with the main threats as listed in the headlines. The cold front will move through the region tonight and Thursday bringing less humid and a bit cooler conditions.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence at 230 PM through 9-10 PM for the severe weather potential. This will be the only coordination message on this severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazrdous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday 7/29/19 Severe Weather Potential

July 29, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible Monday Afternoon and evening with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lighting and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are also possible if the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms are sufficient to warrant Amateur Radio Ops for Monday..

Yesterday brought limited strong thunderstorm development across Northern Massachusetts but no severe thunderstorms across the region. For today, instability levels will be higher in the region but as is typical for Southern New England, there are mixed signals in terms of drying in the atmosphere as well as coverage of storms given lack of forcing or a trigger in the atmosphere. Conditions for today could be similar to or slightly greater in isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm coverage in the area with the greatest risk in Western Massachusetts and then potentially through South-Central Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and Northern Rhode Island.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are also possible if the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms are sufficient to warrant Amateur Radio Ops for Monday. This will likely be the only coordination message for today unless coverage of severe thunderstorms is greater than anticipated causing a need for Amateur Radio Ops and time allows for a shortened coordination message update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday 7/28/19 Late PM/Early Evening & Monday 7/29/19 Afternoon/Evening Severe Weather Potential

July 28, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible late Sunday Afternoon into early Sunday Evening, strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and torrential rain with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. The greatest threat is in Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible Monday Afternoon and evening with similar threats as Sunday over much of Southern New England. This will be detailed in future coordination messages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Sunday and Monday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are also possible if the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms are sufficient to warrant Amateur Radio Ops for Monday. This will be the only coordination message posted on the severe weather potetntial for Sunday. Another coordination message will be posted later Sunday Evening or early Monday Morning on the severe weather potential for Monday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Post Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 7/23/19 Cape Cod Tornado and Damaging Wind Severe Weather Event

July 24, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..A severe thunderstorm caused significant wind damage with measured wind gusts to hurricane force and a tornado in Harwich and Yarmouth and numerous trees and wires down across many communities in Cape Cod. Particularly hard hit were Mashpee, Barnstable, Yarmouth, Harwich, Dennis, Brewster, Chatham, and Orleans, Massachusetts. At the height of the event, approximately 53,000 without power and as of 1017 PM, 41,562 people were without power in Massachusetts largely centered over Cape Cod..
..Cape Cod ARES is activated supporting two shelters and communications at the Barnstable County EOC and Multi Agency Coordination Center (MACC)..
..Pictures and videos of damage from Cape Cod can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter Feeds and via the email address of pics@nsradio.org. An update to this post severe weather coordination message will likely follow Wednesday Evening..
..Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report, Preliminary Tornado Public Information Statement, WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album and Preliminary Amateur Radio Log of Damage Reports..

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Reports:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1907240217.nwus51.html
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1907231842.nwus51.html

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement Preliminary Tornado Summary:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/pg/wx1box/photos/?tab=album&album_id=2649651371735531

WX1BOX Preliminary Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/reports_7_23_19.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday 7/22/19 – Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

July 22, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms likely particularly in areas of Connecticut and Rhode Island and could extend into Southeast Massachusetts where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a slight risk for severe weather and outside of the slight risk area, there is a marginal risk for severe weather across much of the rest of Massachusetts for Monday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the primary threats but there is also a secondary threat for hail and an isolated tornado..
..A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect through 1000 PM Monday Evening for Connecticut and Rhode Island as this is the best area for severe thunderstorm development but areas around the severe thunderstorm watch in Massachusetts should also closely monitor the severe weather potential..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 6 PM EDT Monday Evening lasting through late evening. This will be the last coordination message on the severe weather and flash flood potential. Below is the SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook…

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM EDT:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0538.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather/Flood Coordination Message #2 – Flood/Severe Weather Potential – Monday 7/22/19-Tuesday 7/23/19

July 22, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms will be possible tonight and again Monday Afternoon and evening particularly in Southeast New England behind a cold front that will bring less humid and somewhat cooler conditions to the region. The front will stall near or just south of the south coast and that will allow waves of low pressure to form along it bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms and the potential for urban/poor drainage flooding to flash flooding particularly for portions of the region along and south of the Mass Pike..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Southeast New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions Monday into Tuesday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible if a more defined flood or severe weather risk exists during this time period. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day2otlk_20190721_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 7/17/19 Severe Weather & Flash Flood Potential

July 17, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England particularly along and south of the Mass Pike as a cold front with the remnants of Barry move across the region. Strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with potential urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the primary threats with hail as a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England except Cape Cod and the Islands in a slight risk for severe weather and Cape Cod and the Islands in a marginal risk for severe weather for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 10 PM for all Massachusetts except for the islands, Rhode Island and Connecticut for severe thunderstorm potential..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from Wednesday Afternoon through 11 PM Wednesday Evening for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island, and all of Massachusetts except for the Islands for thunderstorms with the potential for 2″of rain per hour in thunderstorms and that can produce urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 300 PM Wednesday Afternoon likely lasting through 11 PM Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Flash Flood Watch, and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and Severe Thunderstorm Watch..

Heat and humidity will be prevalent across Southern New England today. A cold front will move into Southern New England near the time of peak heating. Satellite imagery shows good clearing in areas where there is some cloud cover and that should allow for reasonably strong instability. One key limitation will have is lack of cooling temperatures aloft but wind fields will increase through the day, heating that will allow for high instability and the atmosphere is becoming primed for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development along with the potential of flash flooding for thunderstorms. The headlines depict the latest info.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 230-245 PM Wednesday Afternoon likely lasting through 11 PM Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Flash Flood Watch statement, and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and Severe Thunderstorm Watch statement.

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch Statement:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0516.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 7/17/19 – Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

July 17, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day2otlk_20190716_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 7/6/19 Severe Weather & Flood Potential

July 6, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall with urban to poor drainage flooding, and perhaps even flash flooding, and frequent lightning are the main threats with hail as a potential secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with a slight risk of severe weather posted from portions of Essex County Massachusetts through portions of New Hampshire and Maine. The main timeframe for severe weather is anytime after 12 PM Saturday Afternoon through around 10 PM Saturday Evening..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 12 PM Saturday through late Saturday Evening..
..A Heat Advisory is now in effect from 1-5 PM today for Western Essex and Central and Southeast Middlesex County Massachusetts for heat indices around 100 degrees. Anyone doing outdoor activities in the heat advisory area or across Southern New England should drink plenty of liquids and take precautions with the heat today..
..For Western Massachusetts Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters, the 146.940-Mount Tom Repeater PL: 127.3 Hz is back in service and SKYWARN Operations will be conducted on that repeater as required for Saturday..

A slow moving cold front will move through New England on Saturday after an intense day of heat and humidity for the region as temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with dewpoint values in the low to mid-70s expected. Heat Advisories have been issued for portions of Northeast Massachusetts and everyone in Southern New England should drink plenty of liquids and take precautions with the heat today. The slow moving cold front with the intense heat and humidity in place will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across Southern New England as the front slowly moves through the region. The headlines depict the latest thinking which have not changed much since last night. Key factors on the severe weather and flooding potential include the following:

1.) Timing of the cold front through the region and the ability of the front to maximize the use of what is likely to be high instability levels.
2.) The strength of the winds aloft as the front swings through. The strongest winds are expected to be behind the cold front but there could be somewhat stronger winds in sync with the front. The more in sync those stronger winds are with the front, the greater the severe weather potential.
3.) Straight-line winds in the form of wet-microbursts are possible in isolated locations due to very moisture-laden storms making up for the lighter winds aloft. The extent of this will depend on the level of instability.
4.) Flooding is another concern in isolated to scattered locations particularly if cells are slow-moving and training over the same area as the environment will be very moist and tropical. This will also depend if areas affected are urbanized or poor drainage areas via either urbanization or differences in terrain.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 12 PM Saturday through late Saturday Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday July 6th, 2019 Severe Weather/Flood Potential

July 6, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall with urban to poor drainage flooding, and perhaps even flash flooding, and frequent lightning are the main threats with hail as a potential secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with a slight risk of severe weather posted from portions of Essex County Massachusetts through portions of New Hampshire and Maine. The main timeframe for severe weather is anytime after 12 PM Saturday Afternoon through around 10 PM Saturday Evening..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 12 PM Saturday through late Saturday Evening..
..For Western Massachusetts Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters, the 146.940-Mount Tom Repeater PL: 127.3 Hz is back in service and SKYWARN Operations will be conducted on that repeater as required for Saturday..

A slow moving cold front will move through New England on Saturday and bring an end to the heat and humidity in the region over the past few days after humidity levels will be even higher on Saturday than today with dewpoint values in the low to mid-70s expected for Saturday. This cold front will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across Southern New England as the front slowly moves through the region. The headlines depict the latest thinking. Key factors on the severe weather and flooding potential include the following:

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 12 PM Saturday through late Saturday Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day2otlk_20190705_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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