Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday PM 4/21/20-Wednesday AM 4/22/20 Severe Weather/Strong Wind Potential

Hello to all..

..A Strong Cold front will have the potential to bring Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds and hail as the main threats during Tuesday Afternoon and Early Evening and strong to damaging post frontal winds Tuesday Evening into Wednesday Morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with Central and Southern Connecticut and Southwest Rhode Island in a slight risk for severe weather..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage area from 5 PM Tuesday to 3 AM Wednesday for sustained winds of 10-20 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds will have the potential to cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up nets will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential and strong to damaging wind potential Tuesday Afternoon into early Wednesday Morning..

A strong cold front will move across the region on Tuesday and bring unusually cold air into the region. Ahead of the cold front is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms and then along and behind the front is the potential for strong to damaging winds. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Surface based instability is limited, however, there will be a significant cold pool of air aloft and very strong winds aloft which will likely compensate for the lack of surface instability allowing for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) If there is greater surface instability, that would increase the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms given other favorable parameters.
3.) Strong winds behind the cold front will be near or just above advisory levels and will last into the first half of Wednesday and cause isolated pockets of wind damage.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up nets will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential and strong to damaging wind potential Tuesday Afternoon into early Wednesday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 1100 AM Tuesday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory, Hazardous weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200420_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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