July 2020 – Page 2

Heat and Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday 7/19-Monday 7/20 Intense Heat Potential & Monday 7/20 Severe Weather Potential

July 18, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..The hottest stretch of weather so far in the Summer 2020 season is expected across most of Southern New England Sunday and Monday. Potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for Monday for much of Southern New England and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather on Monday..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM Monday for Northern Connecticut, Providence, Kent and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island and Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Southern Worcester, Essex, Middlesex, Suffolk, Nortfolk, North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for heat indices up to 102 degrees expected. Even in areas not included in the heat advisory, use caution outside if doing a lot of physical activity and drink plenty of liquids as heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday. Additional updates on the severe weather potential for Monday will be posted by Sunday Evening and again Monday Morning. This will likely be the only update on the intense heat and humidity expected for Sunday into Monday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics on the heat, NWS Heat Safety Tips and SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.3126090854151931/3126089067485443/?type=3&theater

NWS Heat Safety Tips:
https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day3otlk_20200718_0730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Special Announcement: Hurricane Preparedness Week in Southern New England – Monday 7/13/20-Friday 7/17/20

July 17, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

This week of Monday July 13th through Friday July 17th is Hurricane Preparedness Week in Southern New England per NWS Boston/Norton. The NWS Boston/Norton office has issued Public Information Statements all this week promoting hurricane preparedness. The statements and the hurricane safety preparedness web page can be seen at the following links:

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/pns_hurricane_preparedness_week_2020.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Safety Page:
https://www.weather.gov/box/hurricane_safety

Various local and state emergency management agencies in Southern New England have also acknowledged NWS Boston/Norton hurricane preparedness week with information on their web sites and social media outlets. We hope this information is useful for hurricane preparedness as we enter the peak of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season over the next couple of months.

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 7/14/20 Severe Weather Potential

July 14, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely today across much of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and North-Central and Northeast Connecticut except for Cape Cod and the Islands for late this Tuesday Morning through Evening, strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the region in a marginal risk for severe weather for late Tuesday Morning through Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for late Tuesday Morning through Evening..

A cold pool of air in the upper level of the atmosphere associated with an upper level low will swing through Southern New England late Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Evening. This will tap into sufficient instability and destabilization from daytime heating and marginally sufficient wind shear for the development of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the region. Key factors will be the cold pool and cooling aloft being able to compensate for weaker forcing and triggering in the atmosphere and marginally sufficient wind shear in the atmosphere.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for late Tuesday Morning through Evening. This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations and monitoring mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Special Weather Statement on Severe Weather Potential, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement on Severe Weather Potential:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2007141350.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday Afternoon and Evening 7/13/20 Severe Weather Potential

July 13, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible to likely across all of Southern New England except Cape Cod and the Islands for Monday Afternoon and Evening with the highest potential in Northeast Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island, and Eastern Massachusetts away from the southeast coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island areas with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a marginal risk for severe weather for Monday Afternoon and Evening across much of the NWS Norton coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands. Threat timeframe is between 2-9 PM Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening..

A cold front will move into the area at the time of peak heating Monday Afternoon and Evening. There should be sufficient heating and destabilization along with strong wind shear to support isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms along the cold front. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for the potential severe weather for Monday that will affect is magnitude is as follows:

1.) Showers and associated cloud cover swung through the area this morning with clear skies and clearing conditions across the region. This will allow for sufficient heating and destabilization for later in the afternoon and evening for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) Ability for stronger wind shear and expected high levels of instability to overcome a few unfavorable parameters in the mid levels of the atmosphere.
3.) Within the marginal risk area, the best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms is across Eastern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts outside of southeast coastal areas of Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message on Monday’s severe weather potential as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Special Weather Statement on severe weather potential, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement on Severe Weather Potential:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2007131532.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday Afternoon and Evening 7/13/20 Severe Weather Potential

July 12, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible to likely across all of Southern New England except Cape Cod and the Islands for Monday Afternoon and Evening, strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the region in a marginal risk for severe weather for Monday. Threat timeframe is between 1-9 PM Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening..

1.) There could be a few showers and isolated thunderstorms early Monday Morning with associated cloud cover. It is expected that this will move out and allow for sufficient heating and destabilization for later in the afternoon and evening but if cloud cover were to linger, it could reduce the severe weather potential.
2.) Ability for stronger wind shear and expected high levels of instability to overcome a few unfavorable parameters in the mid levels of the atmosphere.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200712_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 7/11/20 Severe Weather Potential

July 11, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely today across Western Massachusetts potentially as far east as Worcester County Mass and across Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a marginal risk for severe weather. Threat timeframe is highest between 4-8 PM but a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could form as early as 2 PM..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather potential for this Saturday Afternoon and Evening in Western Massachusetts and Connecticut..

With the remnants of Fay north and west of us into Canada, satellite imagery shows reasonably good clearing across the area with a trigger and impulse in the atmosphere across Western Pennsylvania into Central New York. The headlines depict the latest thinking. The key factors on the severe weather potential is as follows:

1.) Timing of the trigger in the atmosphere to set off the high level of instability during the afternoon and early evening to cause strong to severe thunderstorm development across Western Massachusetts and Connecticut.
2.) Ability of the trigger and impulse in the atmosphere to overcome marginal shear profiles to allow for strong to severe thunderstorm development for later this afternoon and evening.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather potential for this Saturday Afternoon and Evening in Western Massachusetts and Connecticut. This will likely be the only coordination message on the Saturday severe weather potential as we shift to monitoring and operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement on Severe Weather Potential, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement on Severe Weather Potential:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2007111345.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Tropical Storm Fay Coordination Message #2 – Friday PM 7/10/20-Saturday AM 7/11/20 Storm Impacts

July 10, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Tropical Storm Fay has strengthened slightly as it continues to move northward. Track confidence has increased in a track along the New Jersey Coast and into the New York City area and through Eastern New York/extreme Western New England. Fay will bring heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding to western portions of Southern New England, the threat of isolated severe thunderstorms and to a lesser extent, the possibility of strong winds particularly along South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts.
..Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Watch Hill Rhode Island westward across coastal Connecticut and Long Island New York..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for Northern Connecticut and Hampden, Hampshire and Franklin Counties of Western Massachusetts from 12 PM Friday Afternoon through Saturday Morning. A general 1-2″ rainfall is likely but higher amounts could occur in a portion of the flash flood watch area which could lead to flash flooding of urban areas and small streams..The Flash Flood Watch for the rest of the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area is canceled with rainfall of 0.50-1.5″ with isolated higher amounts possible..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Connecticut, Rhode Island, South-Central and Southeast Massachusetts in a Marginal Risk for severe weather for Friday Afternoon into Friday Night for isolated severe thunderstorm potential which could have strong to damaging winds and possibly an isolated weak tornado. A Slight Risk for severe weather exists for South Coastal Connecticut into extreme southwest coastal Rhode Island as well..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Fay with the impacts from Fay late Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning..

Tropical Storm Fay is strengthened slightly as heads towards the Northeast US coast. Tropical Storm Fay will move swiftly up the coast affecting our region’s weather late Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning. The headlines depict the latest thinking. Key factors with Tropical Storm Fay include:

1.) Heavy rainfall with the potential of urban/poor drainage flooding to flash flooding and the possibility of an isolated severe thunderstorm or two capable of a wet microburst or an isolated tornado are the main threats for the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area from Fay. With the current track guidance remaining stable, the heaviest rain is expected to be in Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut so the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect there but is canceled for the rest of the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area.
2.) Right now, the track of Fay will be hugging the US east coast and model runs continue to indicate that track. This will keep the strongest winds confined to the Tropical Storm Warning area. The chance of a track further east is now less likely though will still be monitored. That said, parts of south coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts could see wind gusts between 30-40 MPH with isolated higher gusts as Fay moves swiftly through the area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Fay with the impacts from Fay late Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning. This will be the last coordination message on Fay unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and time allows for an update as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and National Hurricane Center Miami Florida – Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Information:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Fay Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Fay Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Tropical Storm Fay Coordination Message #1 – Friday Afternoon 7/10/20-Saturday Morning 7/11/20 Storm Impacts

July 10, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Tropical Storm Fay has formed off the coast of North Carolina and has the potential to bring heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding to portions of Southern New England that will depend on the strength and intensity of Fay, the threat of isolated severe thunderstorms and to a lesser extent, the possibility of strong winds particularly along South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Watch Hill Rhode Island westward across coastal Connecticut and Long Island New York..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage Area for Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning. A general 1-2″ rainfall is possible but higher amounts could occur in a portion of the flash flood watch area which could lead to flash flooding of urban areas and small streams..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Connecticut, Rhode Island, South-Central and Southeast Massachusetts in a Marginal Risk for severe weather for Friday Afternoon into Friday Night for isolated severe thunderstorm potential which could have strong to damaging winds and possibly an isolated weak tornado..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Fay with the impacts from Fay late Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning..

The area of disturbed weather off the North Carolina coast has developed into Tropical Storm Fay. Tropical Storm Fay will move swiftly up the coast affecting our region’s weather late Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning. The headlines depict the latest thinking. Key factors with Tropical Storm Fay include:

1.) Heavy rainfall with the potential of urban/poor drainage flooding to flash flooding and the possibility of an isolated severe thunderstorm or two capable of a wet microburst or an isolated tornado are the main threats for the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area from Fay.
2.) Right now, the track of Fay will be hugging the US east coast. This would keep the strongest winds confined to the Tropical Storm Warning area. There is a chance of a track slightly further east which would allow Fay to affect parts of the South Coast of Rhode Island and Massachusetts with stronger winds as models initialized the storm a bit further south and west then where the center of Fay was detected by recon aircraft. Trends in models will be monitored regarding the track of Fay.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Fay with the impacts from Fay late Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 8 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and National Hurricane Center Miami Florida – Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Information:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200709_1730.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Fay Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Fay Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 7/8/20 Severe Weather Potential

July 8, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut Wednesday Afternoon and Evening, strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather for Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut for Wednesday. It is noted that much of New Hampshire and Southern Maine are in a slight risk for severe weather. The threat timeframe for severe thunderstorms could be as early as 1 PM Wednesday but the most likely time range is now between 4-10 PM Wednesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

Not much change to the headlines regarding severe weather potential for Wednesday. The key factor for severe weather on Wednesday remains how far south an impulse in the atmosphere will get to serve as a triggering mechanism for strong to severe thunderstorms within our coverage area. There will be sufficient heating and destabilization with marginally sufficient wind shear to support strong to severe thunderstorm development. Some of the storms may have slow movement which may allow for urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding to occur with some of these storms. It is noted that with this update much of New Hampshire and Southern Maine have been upgraded to a slight risk for severe weather where the impulse is tracking into that area more directly so the risk to northern and western portions of Southern New England will hinge on that impulse trigger affecting northern and western portions of Southern New England and if its far enough south to do so.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 7/8/20 Severe Weather Potential

July 8, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut Wednesday Afternoon and Evening, strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut in a Marginal Risk for severe weather for Wednesday. The threat timeframe for severe thunderstorms is between 2-9 PM Wednesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

After a day without severe weather, warm and humid conditions will return and with those warm and humid conditions will be the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms during Wednesday Afternoon and evening across portions of Southern New England. The headlines depict the latest thinking and area. The key factor for severe weather on Wednesday will be how far south an impulse in the atmosphere will get to serve as a triggering mechanism for strong to severe thunderstorms within our coverage area. There will be sufficient heating and destabilization with marginally sufficient wind shear to support strong to severe thunderstorm development. Some of the storms may have slow movement which may allow for urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding to occur with some of these storms.

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200707_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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