July 2020 – Page 3

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Sunday 7/5/20 Severe Weather Potential

July 5, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday afternoon and evening particularly over Northeastern and Central Massachusetts and into North-Central Rhode Island but the potential could extend southwest back into parts of Western Massachusetts and North-Central and Northeast Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats but an isolated tornado is a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has extended the Marginal Risk into Northeast Connecticut, Rhode Island and the Connecticut River Valley of Western Massachusetts east into Central and Eastern Massachusetts for today. Severe weather potential timeframe is between about 2-10 PM Sunday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

There remains the potential for severe weather on Sunday Afternoon and Evening and the marginal risk for severe weather has been expanded southwestward and westward into parts of North-Central Connecticut, Rhode Island and Western Massachusetts from the Connecticut River Valley east into Central and Eastern Massachusetts. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The level of mid-level dry air in the atmosphere and whether too much of dry air stunts severe thunderstorm development. At this time, this is expected to be overcome particularly from the Connecticut River Valley eastward with the most favorable area in Northeast Massachusetts. There will be a sharp cutoff between higher and lower dewpoint air that will setup in Central New England and areas along and to the east of that higher/lower dewpoint air line will see the greatest risk for severe weather development.
2.) The level of forcing or a trigger in the atmosphere to take advantage of the favorable instability and wind shear profiles in the atmosphere or whether the level of instability and wind shear compensates for a marginal trigger or forcing in the atmosphere. A cold front will move into the area along with the line between higher and lower dewpoint air towards evening which will set the area for the most favorable conditions for severe weather potential.
3.) There is the possibility for two rounds of activity. One in Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut spreading eastward between 3-6 PM with another round after 6 PM to 10-11 PM that would be focused in Northeast Massachusetts but other areas should monitor.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Sunday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday 7/5/20 Severe Weather Potential

July 4, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Happy Independence Day and July 4th to all SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators. We hope you’re all enjoying the holiday..
..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possibly to likely Sunday afternoon and evening particularly over Northeastern and Central Massachusetts and into North-Central Rhode Island but the potential could extend southwest back into Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut depending if the more favorable conditions can extend back further west. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats but an isolated tornado is a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Eastern and Central Massachusetts and Northeast Rhode Island in a marginal risk for severe weather Sunday and indicated a potential expansion of the risk further west into other parts of Southern New England and as far west as Eastern New York in future outlooks. Severe weather potential timeframe is between about 1-10 PM Sunday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

..It has been an active week for severe thunderstorms and localized flooding across parts of Southern New England. A Post Severe Weather Coordination Message will be posted on the various events from the week of 6/28 this Saturday Evening. We are also looking for any post storm damage reports and photos to add to existing and new photo albums on the Facebook page. They can be posted on our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with date and location information and credit will be given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

We hope everyone is enjoying their July 4th. There is the potential for severe weather on Sunday Afternoon and Evening, particularly in Central and Northeast Massachusetts and into Northeast Rhode Island but could extend back southwest into Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The level of mid-level dry air in the atmosphere and whether too much of dry air stunts severe thunderstorm development. At this time, this is expected to be overcome particularly from Worcester and Providence and points north and east on most models but some models bring the potential all the way through Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and into Eastern New York.
2.) The level of forcing or a trigger in the atmosphere to take advantage of the favorable instability and wind shear profiles in the atmosphere or whether the level of instability and wind shear compensates for a marginal trigger or forcing in the atmosphere.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200704_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 7/3/20 Severe Weather Potential

July 3, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Scattered strong to an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible today across Western Massachusetts from West-Central Worcester County west to Berkshires and Western and Central Connecticut for this Friday Afternoon and Evening. Heavy rainfall and urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats but strong to damaging winds and hail are also possible..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather this Friday afternoon and evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor thunderstorm potential for this Friday Afternoon and Evening across the region. This will be the only message on the Friday potential as we shift to monitoring mode..

..It has been an active week for severe thunderstorms and localized flooding across parts of Southern New England. A Post Severe Weather Coordination Message will be posted on the various events from the week of 6/28 either late today or Saturday Morning. We are also looking for any post storm damage reports and photos to add to existing and new photo albums on the Facebook page. They can be posted on our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with date and location information and credit will be given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

..Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 7/1/20 Severe Weather And Flood Potential

July 1, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible today, Wednesday, across much of Southern New England as a upper level low continues to spin over New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with thunderstorms potentially slow moving over localized areas..
..Thunderstorm timeframe is through around 7 PM this evening. Cold pool aloft and instability levels could allow for some strong to isolated severe thunderstorm development despite weak wind fields..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor thunderstorm potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across the region. This will be the only message on the Wednesday potential as we shift to monitoring mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

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