Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Sunday Afternoon and Evening 8/2/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut Sunday Afternoon and Evening possibly extending into Eastern Connecticut, Central Massachusetts and Northwest Rhode Island. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours and the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary risk..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded all of Western Connecticut and Western Massachusetts to a slight risk of severe weather and has placed Central Massachusetts, Eastern Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island in a marginal risk for severe weather. Models have expanded the severe weather potential into this area along with Eastern New York. This severe weather potential has to do with a warm front moving through area and is not in association with Tropical Storm Isaias..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Western and Central New England for Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

A warm front will push through Southern New England during Sunday and behind the warm front, there will be the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms potentially reaching Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut during the afternoon and evening hours and possibly as far east as Eastern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and Central Massachusetts. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors on the severe weather potential include:

1.) How far north and east the warm front gets and at this time it could get far enough east to allow severe weather potential as far east as Worcester County Massachusetts, Eastern Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island
2.) How much clearing and destabilization builds into Western New England from Eastern New York behind the warm front and this could be the biggest question on how the severe weather potential evolves as we get to this afternoon and evening
3.) High-Resolution models had kept the better triggering and forcing south and west of Western New England but have at times brought some better forcing into Western New England and that was the trend in the models overnight which has caused SPC to expand the slight risk for severe weather further east and the marginal risk for severe weather into Central New England.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Western and Central New England for Sunday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message on this severe weather potential as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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