Hello to all…
..Potentially significant coastal storm could have potential impacts across Southern New England late Friday Night through early Sunday Morning. Uncertainty is higher than normal at this time due to high spread in model guidance despite being about 30-36 hours from the potentially significant coastal storm event but there is the potential for heavy rainfall at the coast, heavy rain changing to a heavy wet snow in portions of interior Southern New England along with strong to damaging winds in the coastal areas..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Saturday Morning through Sunday Morning for Franklin, Hampshire, Western Hampden, Northern Worcester, North-Central Middlesex and Western Essex Counties and is now expanded to Eastern Hampden, Southern Worcester and Southeast Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 6″ or more of snow. The snow will have the potential to be heavy and wet and if it accumulates 4″ or more along with the potential of wind gusts up to 45 MPH, there will be the potential for scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered to numerous power outages..
..Areas of Northern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and other parts of interior Eastern Massachusetts could also see accumulating snow depending on the track speed and intensity of this coastal storm..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect from Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Evening for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts up to 60 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible. Other areas of Eastern New England could see wind gusts up to 50 MPH. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm throughout the duration of the event. It is noted that this storm is coinciding with SKYWARN Recognition Day (SRD) and the WX1BOX Amateur Radio team will make a best effort to continue to support this event per current plans with the understanding that storm operations will take precedence and an updated SRD message will be sent later this evening..
Models are depicting a potentially significant storm to affect the Mid-Atlantic and New England late Friday Night through Sunday Morning. That being said there is larger than normal spread in the guidance in terms of track and intensity and where intensification occurs which will have significant impacts to the forecast. Key factors include:
1.) How the jet streams phase and does that occur close enough to Southern New England. Some of the reliable model guidance certainly depicts that to be close to Southern New England for significant impacts. At this time, the eastern trend has halted and has trended back a bit west along with pretty much all model guidance calling for significant impacts from this storm.
2.) The higher terrain areas will have the potential to experience the most snow. What areas of the higher terrain and whether its Northwest Massachusetts or more towards North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts possibly extending into Northwest Rhode Island, Northern Connecticut and other interior parts of Eastern Massachusetts will be determined in future model runs. There is the potential for high snowfall rates of 2-3″ per hour and with the potential for heavy wet snow, there is an increased risk for numerous trees and wires down and numerous power outages wherever this band sets up and where snow is 4″ or more in the area.
3.) The intensity of the winds will be determined by the track, speed and intensity of the storm system. Currently inland wind gusts are expected to be 40-50 MPH with isolated higher gusts and wind gusts of 50-60 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts across coastal Southern New England. This represents an increase in the wind potential since the last update.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm throughout the duration of the event. It is noted that this storm is coinciding with SKYWARN Recognition Day (SRD) and the WX1BOX Amateur Radio team will make a best effort to continue to support this event per current plans with the understanding that storm operations will take precedence and an updated SRD message will be sent later this evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1030 PM Friday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Snowfall and Rainfall Maps:
NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter
NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/crh/pqpf?sid=box
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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