Storm Coordination Message #4 – Sunday 2/7/21 Coastal Storm Hazards

Hello to all…

..Coastal Storm on track to affect much of Southern New England late Sunday Morning through late Sunday Evening with a plowable to heavy snowfall. Track of system remains a bit lower confidence than normal at this time range thought model ensembles have a better a handle on this coastal storm system. Some changes to Winter Storm headlines have been made based on the latest guidance including lesser snow amounts in northwest areas of Southern New England and higher amounts of snow on Nantucket..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from through 1 AM Monday for Bristol, Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island except for Block Island for 5-9″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and wind gusts particularly along the coast of 40-50 MPH. The Outer Cape could see lesser amounts of 2-5″. The snow is likely to be heavy and wet particularly in coastal areas and Southeast New England and the wet snow and wind gusts may result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect through 1 AM Monday for Tolland and Windham Counties of Connecticut, Worcester, Essex, Middlesex, Suffolk and Norfolk Counties for 3-6″ of snow with isolated higher amounts in the southern and eastern portions of the advisory area. The Winter Storm Warning for this area has been cancelled..
..A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through 1 AM Monday for Block Island RI, Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket for 2-6″ of snow and wind gusts to 40-50 MPH. If snow totals of 3″ or more occur given the snow being heavy and wet, the potential would exist for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through 1 PM Monday for Franklin, Hampshire, and Hampden Counties of Massachusetts and Hartford County CT for 2-5″ of snow..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Nantucket Island from 2-10 PM Sunday for Nantucket Island for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH and gusts to 50 MPH. The winds and any wet snow accumulation could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely across much of Southern New England for this storm event early Sunday Afternoon through Sunday Night..

A coastal storm is taking aim on Southern New England for Sunday Morning through late Sunday Night. Model guidance is coming into gradual agreement on the track, speed and intensity of the storm but uncertainty is higher than normal for a storm system that will start impacting the area in just few hours. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) There remains some spread in the guidance a bit larger than normal regarding the northwest cutoff in precipitation over the region. At this time, a plowable snowfall is expected across much of Southern New England but a bit less than forecast so snowfall amounts have been lowered in interior Southern New England north and west of I-95.
2.) The intensity of the storm will dictate any wind issues in addition to heavy snowfall across eastern and southeastern New England. Also, temperatures will be near freezing in Southeastern and East Coastal New England which could result in a heavier wetter snow which coupled with wind gusts of 40-50 MPH could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.
3.) Some models bring some mixing to some coastal areas particularly the Outer Cape and the islands and precipitation could initially start as rain before quickly changing to snow as evaporational and dynamic cooling take place. Models are a little more offshore with the storm which means a bit more colder air so less mixing may occur here. Amounts on Nantucket Island were adjusted upward and while the other island and the Outer Cape have the same snow amounts forecasted as last night, there could be higher amounts here if the trend towards less mixing verifies. This is another tough part of the forecast as just a slight shift in track or precipitation falling heavy enough to remain accumulating snow may allow for higher amounts over these areas.
4.) The storm will be fast moving starting early to mid morning Sunday and finishing by mid-evening Sunday.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely across much of Southern New England for this storm event Sunday Morning to Sunday Night. This will be the last coordination message for this storm system as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snowfall Maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Map:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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