Hello to all…

..Intense Heat and Humidity is expected Wednesday through Friday and possibly extending into Saturday. With the intense heat and humidity, it will bring with it the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms through this period..
..A Heat Advisory is now in effect for the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from 11 AM-8 PM Wednesday for heat indices between 95-100 degrees. An Excessive Heat Watch is in effect from Thursday Morning through Friday Evening for the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage area except for the eastern slopes of the Berkshires, South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Cape Cod and the Islands for heat indices of 105-109 degrees. Heat advisories will likely be needed Thursday into Friday in areas not covered by the excessive heat watch. Use extreme caution if outside and needing to physically exert yourself. Drink plenty of liquids, take frequent breaks and seek cooler indoor locations wherever possible..
..There remains low grade potential for severe weather in Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut late Wednesday Afternoon into early evening where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has now brought the marginal risk for severe weather into Berkshire and Western Franklin County Massachusetts and could extend as far west as Western Worcester County and down into Hartford and Tolland Counties of CT. The key factor for Wednesday is whether strong to severe thunderstorms stays west of our area or spills into western parts of our region..
..There remains greater severe weather potential on Thursday where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather with areas in New York and Pennsylvania in a slight risk for severe weather which could spread east. A marginal risk for severe weather is also possible for Friday across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut as well and will depend on the evolution of convection on Thursday..
..The severe weather potential for Wednesday through Friday will be isolated to scattered in nature with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential during this heat wave Wednesday through Friday. Another coordination message will be posted either by 11 PM Wednesday Evening or 11 AM Thursday Morning if there is a change in heat headlines and for severe weather potential for Thursday as needed and time allows for an update as we monitor severe weather potential for late Wednesday Afternoon and evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory/Excessive Heat Watch Statement, NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC-Day-1, Day-2 and Day-3 Convective Outlooks..

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory/Excessive Heat Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210811_1730.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Intense Heat and Humidity is expected Wednesday through Friday and possibly extending into Saturday. With the intense heat and humidity, it will bring with it the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms through this period..
..A Heat Advisory is now in effect for the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from 11 AM-8 PM Wednesday for heat indices between 95-100 degrees. An Excessive Heat Watch is in effect from Thursday Morning through Friday Evening for the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage area except for the eastern slopes of the Berkshires, South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Cape Cod and the Islands for heat indices of 105-109 degrees. Heat advisories will likely be needed Thursday into Friday in areas not covered by the excessive heat watch. Use extreme caution if outside and needing to physically exert yourself. Drink plenty of liquids, take frequent breaks and seek cooler indoor locations wherever possible..
..There is low grade potential for severe weather in Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut late Wednesday Afternoon into early evening with greater potential on Thursday where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather. Severe Weather potential beyond Thursday will be better defined in future outlooks..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential during this heat wave Wednesday through Friday. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Wednesday Morning if there is a change in heat headlines and for severe weather potential for Wednesday and Thursday as needed. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory/Excessive Heat Watch Statement, NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory/Excessive Heat Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Storm system will move through the region Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning bringing heavy rainfall and a few thunderstorms with the low risk of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms in Eastern New England..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for Wednesday Night through Thursday Morning for all of Rhode Island, Windham County Connecticut, Southern Worcester County and Eastern Massachusetts except for Cape Cod and the Islands for 1-3″ of rainfall with isolated amounts up to 4″ possible. This rainfall combined with a wet month of July will result in a renewed risk for flooding of urban, poor drainage areas, small rivers and streams. The Flash Flood Watch was expanded northwest into Northeast Connecticut and South-Central Massachusetts for this update..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall, flooding and any strong to damaging wind and wind damage reports across Eastern New England Tonight into Thursday Morning..

Another round of heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Eastern New England tonight into Thursday Morning. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) High resolution models are in different locations with the heaviest rainfall ranging as far west as Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Central and Northeast Massachusetts to areas further southeast even including Cape Cod and the Islands. The current Flash Flood Watch area represents the highest confidence area for potential flooding concerns. In this update, Windham County Connecticut and Southern Worcester County Massachusetts were included in the Flash Flood Watch as the consensus of models brings the heavy rainfall into these areas with a sharp northwest cutoff on heavy rainfall to the northwest of this area.
2.) With the heaviest rainfall occurring in the Flash Flood Watch and shifting a bit further north and west, areas of Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island could see an isolated severe thunderstorm threat develop with strong to damaging winds and the possibility of a couple rotating thunderstorms. This will be monitored closely.
3.) With the wet month of July, if this heavy rainfall falls in the current Flash Flood Watch area or areas further west, the flood potential for urban and poor drainage areas and small rivers and streams will be fairly high. At this time this is looking like the most likely scenario though if it shifts further east into the Cape and Islands, the rain would be beneficial as its been much drier in this area versus the rest of the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall and flooding reports across Eastern New England tonight into Thursday Morning. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Map:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Map:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/StormTotalQPF_SFC2.png

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Storm system will move through the region Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning bringing heavy rainfall and a few thunderstorms to Eastern New England..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for Wednesday Night through Thursday Morning for all of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts except for Cape Cod and the Islands for 1-3″ of rainfall with isolated amounts up to 4″ possible. This rainfall combined with a wet month of July will result in a renewed risk for flooding of urban and poor drainage areas as well as small rivers and streams. Uncertainty remains on the axis of heavy rainfall in Southern New England and could shift west or east in future updates..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall and flooding reports across Eastern New England Tonight into Thursday Morning..

Another round of heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Eastern New England tonight into Thursday Morning. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) High resolution models are in different locations with the heaviest rainfall ranging as far west as Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Central and Northeast Massachusetts to areas further southeast even including Cape Cod and the Islands. The current Flash Flood Watch area represents the highest confidence area for potential flooding concerns and this could shift west or east as we get closer to the storm event and models come into a further consensus on location.
2.) If a further west shift to the heavy rainfall occurs, areas of Southeast Massachusetts could see an isolated severe thunderstorm threat develop along with some strong general wind gusts and this will be monitored in future updates.
3.) With the wet month of July, if this rainfall falls in the current Flash Flood Watch area or areas further west, the flood potential for urban and poor drainage areas and small rivers and streams will be fairly high. If the axis shifts further east into Cape Cod and the Islands, the rainfall will be beneficial as this area has actually experienced below normal rainfall whereas areas northwest of the Cape Cod Canal have had above normal rainfall. This will be monitored as we get closer to the storm event.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall and flooding reports across Eastern New England tonight into Thursday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 PM Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Map:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/StormTotalQPF_SFC1.png

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box