Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 6/17/22 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Friday Afternoon and Evening anytime between 12-6 PM across all of Southern New England with interior Southern New England the favored area of the region. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of Southern New England in a Marginal Risk for severe weather and cited a possible upgrade to slight risk for portions of the region in later outlooks if greater instability can be realized..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening..
Severe weather is possible ahead of a cold front that will bring much cooler air into the region after the heat and humidity on Friday. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) Any cloud cover or residual shower and thunderstorm activity overnight/early morning and how that affects heating. If the day starts out with clear/sunny conditions or rapid clearing occurs in the wake of any overnight or early morning activity, this could increase the severe thunderstorm potential.
2.) The mid-levels of the atmosphere will dry out some and if they dry out too much that could limit the coverage/intensity of strong to severe thunderstorms. Recent model runs have actually increased the mid-level moisture and if that occurs that could mean a reasonable coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms.
3.) Timing of the cold front which is currently expected to be at reasonable time for peak heating and destabilization particularly for central and eastern portions of the marginal severe weather risk area.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day2otlk_20220616_1730.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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