Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Saturday Afternoon & Evening 7/2/22 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to potential urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather except for Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island which are under a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday. Timeframe is between 2-8 PM give or take 1-2 hours..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening to monitor this severe weather potential..
Overnight, clusters of strong and a couple isolated severe thunderstorms occurred in the region overnight and were still ongoing in Southeast New England with an area of showers across Southeast New York, Northern Connecticut and into Northwest and North-Central Massachusetts. This area will move through during the late morning and early afternoon hours and behind it will be some clearing and destabilization that will set the stage for a potentially active severe weather day that remains likely on Saturday Afternoon and Evening with the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in clusters or line segments to affected much of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening. There has been little change to the ongoing forecast based on the current model runs.
As is the case with strong to severe thunderstorms, not every location, city or town will see this activity but isolated to scattered pockets of strong to severe thunderstorms will affect the region as a cold front brings an end to intense heat and humidity to the region. Conditions will dry out late Saturday Night into Sunday Morning from northwest to southeast allowing for nice summer weather for July 4th long weekend activities from Sunday Afternoon through Monday Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors remain:
1.) There continues to be some shower and thunderstorm activity this Saturday Morning which should clear out from the area in the late morning and early afternoon hours per radar and satellite imagery. The amount of clearing to allow for more intense destabilization after this activity moves through will be a key factor in determining the extent of strong to severe thunderstorms during the time of peak heating Saturday Afternoon and Evening.
2.) If there is strong clearing with the favorable wind shear profiles in place, this could allow for more a potent severe weather event across the region and this will be monitored.
SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening to monitor this severe weather potential. This will be the last coordination message as we shift further into operations mode as we have been active during the overnight and early morning period. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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