Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday 6/26/23 Through Early Tuesday Morning 6/27/23 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday Afternoon and Evening with a second round possible late Monday Night into early Tuesday Morning across much of interior Southern New England particularly in Southwest Rhode Island, Connecticut and Western and Central Massachusetts west of the I-495 corridor with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued the Marginal Risk for severe weather for Monday Afternoon and Evening for the area mentioned above which is a bit further west than last night’s message. The threat timeframe is anytime between 12-6 PM for the first round of activity with the second round timing a bit more uncertain and could be after 9 PM Monday Evening through about 7 AM early Tuesday Morning from a complex thunderstorms that will come in from the west and southwest and move east and northeast into Southern New England..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening and overnight self-activation ops are possible for the complex of thunderstorms moving in from the west and southwest into Southern New England..
A convective forecast with lower than normal confidence for the region as an upper level low continues to cause unsettled weather across Southern New England. Current Doppler Radar shows convective showers and thunderstorms in Southern New England and Southeast New York and this activity will continue through late afternoon/early evening. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe. There will be a bit less heating than yesterday over the region but wind shear levels are slightly stronger. Heavy downpours and localized urban/poor drainage flooding is also possible.
After this activity, there could be a lull in the early evening hours and then a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected across New York and the Mid-Atlantic states will spread into Southern New England during the late evening and overnight hours. This activity should be after 9 PM and maybe closer to the 12-1 AM through 7 AM timeframe. Typically, thunderstorms will lose their strength with loss of daytime heating but forcing, wind shear, what instability is left and possibly some cooling aloft from the thunderstorm complex may allow this complex to produce another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the region and this will be monitored.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening and overnight self-activation ops are possible for the complex of thunderstorms moving in from the west and southwest into Southern New England. If time allows based on daytime and early evening operations, another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Monday Evening on the overnight severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: firstname.lastname@example.org
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