Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Saturday 7/29/23 Severe Weather and Flash Flood Potential

Hello to all…
..One more day of potential severe weather and flash flooding for portions of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening between 12-9 PM today..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Connecticut, Rhode Island, Southwest, South-Central and Southeast Massachusetts along and south of the Mass Pike in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather for the rest of Southern New England north of the Pike. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban/poor drainage, river and stream flooding are the primary threat with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) continues all of Southern New England to a slight risk for excessive rainfall..
..A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire coverage area except through late Saturday Night for the entire NWS Norton coverage area except for Southern Rhode Island, Eastern Plymouth County and Cape Cod and the Islands for excessive rainfall leading to urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding.
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday to monitor the severe weather and flood potential. Pictures of storm damage, flooding and post storm reports can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

On Saturday Morning, there was little in the way of thunderstorm activity but Block Island RI did get a severe thunderstorm with wind gusts as high as 74 MPH as reported by a sailboat on the island, trees down and some damage to a boat and dragging of a yacht in Block Island Harbor. Details on this event for Block Island RI are below:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Saturday 7/29/23:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/LSR_Block_Island_7_29_23.pdf

WX1BOX Twitter Feed Block Island RI as relayed by Eweather13:
https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1685278886731382784?s=20
https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1685278886731382784?s=20
https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1685277795692220416?s=20
https://twitter.com/WX1BOX/status/1685268445015715841
https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1685226241413025792

Thursday 7/27/23 brought the most widespread severe weather event of the season to date to Southern New England. Just north of the NWS Norton coverage area, an EF1 Tornado occurred in Cheshire County NH from North Swanzey NH to Marlboro and Dublin NH. A WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album will be posted later this weekend/early next week on this severe weather event. Below are the WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log, NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report and the NWS Gray Maine Public Information Statement on EF1 tornado in the Dublin NH area:

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_27_23.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/LSR_7_28_23.pdf

NWS Gray Maine Public Information Statement – EF1 Tornado in the Dublin NH area:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/PNS_GYX_Dublin_NH_Tornado_7_27_23.pdf

Another round of potential severe weather and flash flooding for portions of Southern New England for Saturday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.)Shower activity over Southeast New York, Southwest Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and impact on heating and how this progresses and whether it develops further as the cold front moves through the area later this afternoon an evening.
2.) Heating and destabilization overlapping sufficient wind shear profiles for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
3.) Timing of the triggering mechanism which is a cold front during or shortly after the time of peak heating.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday to monitor the severe weather and flood potential. Pictures of storm damage, flooding and post storm reports can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230728_1730.html

WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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