Hurricane Lee Coordination Message #3 – Friday Night 9/15/23-Saturday 9/16/23 Tropical Storm Impacts in East & Southeast Coastal Massachusetts

September 15, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Hurricane Lee will impact portions of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island with tropical storm conditions late Friday Night into Saturday. Preparations for tropical storm conditions should continue in eastern areas of Southern New England particularly East and South Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands..
..The Tropical Storm Warning is now expanded to cover Merrimack River Massachusetts to Westport Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket and includes Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth, Southern Plymouth, Southern Bristol, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds 25-40 MPH with gusts to 50-60 MPH with isolated higher gusts possible and the strongest winds over Cape Cod and Nantucket. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..The Tropical Storm Watch west of Westport, Mass to Watch Hill RI has been discontinued. This part of the coast will receive sustained winds 15-20 MPH with wind gusts 30-40 MPH..
..Rainfall amounts of 1-3″ are expected in portions of Eastern Coastal and Southeast Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands with the highest amounts at the coast. For Rhode Island and the rest of Eastern Massachusetts, 0.50″-1″ of rainfall is expected..
..The Storm Surge Watch for Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket is discontinued and replaced with a Coastal Flood Warning. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect from Midnight Friday Night to 2 PM Saturday for Barnstable and Nantucket Counties for coastal flooding of vulnerable shore roads from inundation and waves. A High Surf Advisory is in effect from 11 PM Thursday Evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday Morning for large breaking waves at area beaches for Nantucket, Barnstable, South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and from 11 PM Thursday Evening to 11 AM EDT Sunday Morning for East-Coastal Massachusetts..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely during the tropical storm force conditions on Saturday. Pictures of storm damage from Lee or prior severe weather/flash flood events can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feed or from the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

Another active day of severe weather and flash flooding on Wednesday 9/13/23 in Southern New England particularly in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts. Four tornadoes were confirmed from yesterday. The complete Public Information Statement on the tornadoes, WX1BOX Amateur Radio & non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Report log for reports received:

NWS Public Information Statement – Wednesday 9/13/22 Complete Tornado Information:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/PNS_9_14_23_Tornado_complete_report.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/LSR_BOX_9_13_23.pdf

WX1BOX Amateur Radio/Non-Amateur Radio Spotter Log – 9/13/23 Severe Weather & Flash Flood Event:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/reports_9_13_23_rev3.pdf

Hurricane Lee while currently expected to track approximately 100-150 miles east of Cape Cod and Nantucket will bring tropical storm force conditions to the Tropical Storm Warning area. This means heavy rainfall for Southeast Massachusetts including the Cape and Islands as indicated in the headlines, strong to damaging winds that could be exacerbated by saturated soils and fully leaved out trees and coastal storm surge flooding in portions of coastal Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The track of Lee can still have about 50-75 nautical mile error. The current track guidance gives the current set of conditions. If the track shifts further east, the impacts would be lessened and confined to the Eastern Massachusetts coast. If the track shifts west, it would expand the tropical storm force conditions further into Southern New England.
2.) Lee’s large size and any expansion in size depending on the track could also expand impacts in Southern New England or make impacts in the current Tropical Storm Warning area higher. This will be monitored. From the 2 PM advisory to the current advisory, the tropical storm force wind field expanded from 290 miles to 345 miles and this will continue to be monitored.
3.) Timing and track of Lee’s approach to the region with the high tide cycle will determine extent of coastal flooding and the headlines depict the current thinking.
4.) The track will determine how much rainfall and where the heaviest will fall in the region and the headlines depict the current thinking.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely during the tropical storm force conditions. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Hurricane Local Statement, Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory, Coastal Flood Warning/High Surf Advisory Statement and NHC Advisory Information, Key Messages and Storm Graphics:

NWS Boston/Norton – Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton – Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton – Hurricane Local Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=HLS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton – Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=TCV&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton – Coastal Flood Warning/High Surf Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=CFW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Hurricane Lee Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Hurricane Lee Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

Hurricane Lee Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/092753.shtml?key_messages#contents

Hurricane Lee Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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