Storm Coordination Message #2 – Late Monday Night 2/12/24-Late Tuesday Night 2/13/24 – Coastal Winter Storm Potential
Hello to all…
..A coastal storm will take aim on Southern New England late Monday Night through Tuesday Night across much of Southern New England. The coastal storm will be capable of heavy snow, minor to moderate coastal flooding and strong wind gusts at the coast. A rain-snow line will be something to be monitored across coastal Southeast New England..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from late Monday Night through late Tuesday Night for Northern Connecticut, Providence, Kent, Bristol Counties of Rhode Island, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 6-12″ of snow and isolated higher amounts and wind gusts to 40 MPH especially in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island and at the coast. In Southeast Massachusetts and East Coastal Massachusetts, the snow will be heavy and wet and this could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from late Monday Night through late Tuesday Night for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for 4-8″ of snow and wind gusts to 50 MPH. In this area, the snow will be heavy and wet and this may result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage in this area. Areas outside of the Winter Storm Watch area on Cape Cod and the Islands will receive 2-4″ of snow on Cape Cod with the highest amounts closest to Cape Cod with a Dusting to 2″ of snow over the Islands..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect for Tuesday Afternoon for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide for East Coastal Massachusetts which includes Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth Counties, Cape Cod and the Islands. This could result in shore road closures and beach erosion in areas hard hit by coastal storms last month. Again, South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island without a Northeast wind component is not expected to see any coastal flooding from this event..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands for Late Monday Night into Tuesday Evening for sustained winds 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. These winds along with any wet snow accumulation of 3″ or more could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..Additional Warnings and/or Advisories are likely in future updates..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Tuesday across much of the NWS Boston/Norton Coverage Area. Pictures and videos of coastal flooding and any storm damage etc. can be sent as a reply to this message, via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and via the email address pics@nsradio.org..
A coastal storm will bring an end to a relative quiet stretch of weather for the region. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) As always, storm track will be critical to snowfall amounts and the rain-snow line in Coastal Southeast New England. The current track supports the current headlines. A track a bit more to the north would mean more of rain-snow line and mix further inland into parts of Eastern Massachusetts. A track further south would bringing heavier snowfall to the south coast, Cape and Islands.
2.) With no high pressure to the north, this will impact the amount of cold air to the north but the system will be intensifying which means dynamic cooling with the intensifying storm would allow for heavy snow possibly affecting east and south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and will be monitored.
3.) With no high pressure to the north, this should keep the strong wind gusts a bit more muted than some coastal storms. Nonetheless, wind gusts of 40-60 MPH at the coast will be possible with this storm and models have trended a bit stronger with the storm resulting in a High Wind Watch for Cape Cod and the Islands for wind gusts up to 60 MPH. With wind gusts 40-50 MPH with isolated higher gusts at the coast in the Winter Storm Watch area, those winds are covered under the Winter Storm Watch. The timing of these Northeast winds will have an impact on the level of coastal flooding at the time of high tide Tuesday for East Coastal Massachusetts. No impacts are expected in South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island due to the Northeast wind direction based on the current storm track.
4.) Amount of snow will depend on the storm speed and intensity in addition to the track as mentioned in item 1. Also, the snow could be heavy and wet in at least a portion of the Winter Storm Watch area, especially South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island but also in Southeast interior and East Coastal Massachusetts and this aspect will be monitored for any isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and any power outages.
SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Tuesday across much of the NWS Boston/Norton Coverage Area. Pictures and videos of coastal flooding and any storm damage etc. can be sent as a reply to this message, via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and via the email address pics@nsradio.org. The next coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Sunday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Winter Storm Watch Statement & Snowfall Map, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement & Snowfall Map:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter
NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=CFW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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