Storm Coordination Message #3 – Wednesday 12/11/24 Damaging Wind & Heavy Rainfall Potential
Hello to all…
..A powerful storm will impact the region with beneficial soaking rainfall of 2-3″ with isolated higher amounts of 4″ or more but if amounts are higher or falls in a short period of time and there is that potential, flooding issues could occur and there is the potential for strong to damaging winds in much of Southern New England and even the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms that could bring strong to damaging winds down to the surface..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 3 PM Wednesday Afternoon through 1 AM Thursday Morning for Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth, Dukes, Barnstable, Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island for sustained winds 25 to 35 MPH with Gusts to 60-65 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. This represents an expansion of the High Wind Warning area. These winds will result in scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 3 PM Wednesday Afternoon through 1 AM Thursday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Worcester, Eastern Hampden, Eastern Hampshire, and Northern Middlesex counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds 15-25 MPH with gusts to 55 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible. These winds will result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect from Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Morning for all of Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island except for Block Island, Bristol, Plymouth, Worcester, Hampden, Hampshire and Franklin Counties of Massachusetts for 2-3″ of rain and isolated to scattered high amounts 4″ or more possible. If this rainfall falls in a short enough period of time or is generally higher than expected, this could result in small river, stream, urban and poor drainage flooding issues. This represents an expansion of the Flood Watch area..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded portions Connecticut, Rhode Island, South-Central and Southeast Massachusetts from a marginal risk to a slight risk for severe weather particularly for Southeast New England for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening for potential isolated severe thunderstorms with a damaging wind threat..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets possible for wind damage reports, rain gauge reports, any flooding reports and measured wind gusts 40 MPH or Greater. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via he WX1BOX Facebook and X feeds and through the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..
An impactful storm is on tap on Wednesday for Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking which has some increasing impacts for a larger portion of the area. Key factors remain:
1.) How widespread the damaging wind gusts are. There are likely to be wind gusts at the coast and just inland from the coast that reach high wind warning criteria with wind advisory criteria further inland. How widespread those wind gusts are will be determined by how much we warm during the late afternoon and evening where the strong winds are expected to increase over the region, if heavy rainfall or expected thunderstorm activity is strong enough to bring the strong winds down to the surface. Latest model runs have increased this potential over a wider portion of the area which has resulted in upgrades of portions of the Wind Advisories to High Wind Warnings over the larger area. The damaging wind threat is for later this afternoon and tonight so note that winds won’t increase until later today.
2.) The rainfall will be quite beneficial but if amounts are heavier than anticipated or fall in a short period of time it could lead to small river, stream, urban and poor drainage flooding and this will be monitored through the day Wednesday. Latest model runs have increased the potential for more widespread and heavier rainfall in a relatively short period of time resulting in an expansion of the flood watches in the area.
SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets possible for wind damage reports, rain gauge reports, any flooding reports and measured wind gusts 40 MPH or Greater. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via he WX1BOX Facebook and X feeds and through the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the support unless otherwise indicated. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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