Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday PM/Evening 6/19/25 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely Thursday Afternoon and Evening across much of interior Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and torrential rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the main threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat for portions of the region..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues a slight risk for severe weather for Western and Central Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut with a marginal risk for severe weather for North-Central Rhode Island and the rest of Eastern Massachusetts along and west of the I-95 corridor. Timeframe for severe weather is between 2-10 PM Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..SPC has issued a Mesoscale Convective Discussion (MCD) stating there is an 80% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch this afternoon..
..A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM Thursday for Northern Connecticut, Providence County RI, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Worcester, Central and Southwest Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for heat indices of 101 degrees. Use caution with outdoor activities, take frequent breaks in cooler areas and drink plenty of liquids to stay hydrated..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor any severe thunderstorm potential Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook, X and Bluesky feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain a concern for much of interior Southern New England for this Thursday Afternoon and Evening between 2-10 PM. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors remain:
1.) Timing of forcing and triggering of the atmosphere for the later afternoon/evening or earlier which is currently lined up appropriately for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This timing will also effect how far east the severe weather potential will reach. Timing has trended maybe slightly earlier which may mean more coverage and a slightly further east coverage of severe thunderstorms.
2.) Level of forcing lining up with the heating and destabilization along the pre-frontal trough and front versus being behind the front. This will dictate how widespread the strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be in the region. This appears to be lining up with the heating and destabilization potentially increase the severe weather coverage in the region.
3.) As always with severe thunderstorm events, not all locations will receive a severe thunderstorm. They will be isolated to scattered with pockets of wind damage, hail and urban/poor drainage flooding in those isolated to scattered locations.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any severe thunderstorm potential Thursday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Heat Advisory Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook.
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1363.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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