Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday PM/Evening 7/1/25 Severe Weather/Flood Potential
Hello to all…
.. Showers and thunderstorms were confined to Southeast New England and offshore for Tuesday Morning and were less in coverage than modeled. Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening between 3-9 PM across Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and torrential rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the main threats for portions of the region..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a marginal risk for severe weather for all of Southern New England for Tuesday. The biggest severe weather potential is likely over interior Southern New England from the I-95 corridor north and west..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will any severe thunderstorm/flood potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook, X and Bluesky feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..
A warm front is pushing through the region Tuesday Morning followed by a cold front late Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. The morning activity was limited to Southeast New England and offshore of the coast and clearing is moving in from west to east. This will set the stage for a cold front with isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms swinging through the area. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) With less extensive shower and thunderstorm coverage this morning, Satellite imagery is showing reasonably good clearing which should allow for destabilization. The more clearing that develops, the greater heating and destabilization to allow for severe thunderstorm potential in the afternoon and evening.
2.) Timing of the cold front near the timing of peak heating presuming sufficient clearing develops. This will be the needed trigger for thunderstorm development and will dictate the coverage of thunderstorms.
3.) As always with severe/non-severe thunderstorm events, not all locations will receive a severe/non-severe thunderstorm. They will be isolated to scattered with pockets of wind damage, hail and urban/poor drainage flooding in those isolated to scattered locations.
SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor any severe thunderstorm potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we move into operations mode. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook, X and Bluesky feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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