Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 6/7/16 and Wednesday 6/8/16 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely across much of interior Southern New England from around midday Tuesday into late Tuesday Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of interior Southern New England from just south of the CT/MA and RI/MA border through Southern New Hampshire in a Slight Risk for severe weather with a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather surrounding the slight risk area covering the remainder of Southern New England..
..Another threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for much of Southern New England exists for Wednesday with strong winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are planned for Tuesday at 1000 AM EDT lasting through early evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely on Wednesday..
The potential continues to exist for our first severe weather event of the spring/summer season across portions of interior Southern New England for Tuesday with a second round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible on Wednesday. The headlines indicate the current severe weather potential. It is noted that there will be strong wind shear and considerable cooling aloft in the upper levels of the atmosphere as favorable factors for severe thunderstorm potential for Tuesday. Key items that will ultimately effect the potential for severe weather across Southern New England Tuesday:
1.)The first factor of concern was amount of sunshine and heating for instability. Radar and Satellite imagery shows the area of showers and thunderstorms that was in Pennsylvania last night weakened significantly and there is considerable sunshine in the region so there should be sufficient heating for destabilization.
2.) The amount of dry air in mid-levels in the atmosphere and whether this does not allow for strong updraft potential. If there is too much dry air, this could reduce severe weather potential. If the dry air is not that significant, this would increase the severe weather potential. This remains the key factor in the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms over the region today.
For Wednesday, while temperatures will be cooler at the surface, even cooler temperatures aloft will allow for a big enough temperature difference for another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Wind shear won’t be quite as strong as today but sufficient for the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms and temperatures aloft will be colder than Tuesday. Strong winds, hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall would be the main threats. There could be many reports of sub-severe hail on Wednesday based on the cold temperatures aloft. Again, the key item on this potential will be the amount of dry air in the atmosphere and if that hinders strong to severe thunderstorm development.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are planned for Tuesday at 1000 AM EDT lasting through early evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely on Wednesday. This will be the last coordination message for Tuesday’s severe weather potential. The next coordination message on Wednesday’s severe weather potential will be posted by 1130 PM Tuesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely across much of interior Southern New England from around midday Tuesday into late Tuesday Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of interior Southern New England from just south of the CT/MA and RI/MA border through Southern New Hampshire in a Slight Risk for severe weather with a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather surrounding the slight risk area covering the remainder of Southern New England..
..Another threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for much of Southern New England exists for Wednesday with strong winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are planned for Tuesday at 1000 AM EDT lasting through early evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely on Wednesday..
The potential continues to exist for our first severe weather event of the spring/summer season across portions of interior Southern New England for Tuesday with a second round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible on Wednesday. The headlines indicate the current severe weather potential. It is noted that there will be strong wind shear and considerable cooling aloft in the upper levels of the atmosphere as favorable factors for severe thunderstorm potential for Tuesday. Key items that will ultimately effect the potential for severe weather across Southern New England Tuesday:
1.)The first factor of concern was amount of sunshine and heating for instability. Radar and Satellite imagery shows the area of showers and thunderstorms that was in Pennsylvania last night weakened significantly and there is considerable sunshine in the region so there should be sufficient heating for destabilization.
2.) The amount of dry air in mid-levels in the atmosphere and whether this does not allow for strong updraft potential. If there is too much dry air, this could reduce severe weather potential. If the dry air is not that significant, this would increase the severe weather potential. This remains the key factor in the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms over the region today.
For Wednesday, while temperatures will be cooler at the surface, even cooler temperatures aloft will allow for a big enough temperature difference for another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Wind shear won’t be quite as strong as today but sufficient for the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms and temperatures aloft will be colder than Tuesday. Strong winds, hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall would be the main threats. There could be many reports of sub-severe hail on Wednesday based on the cold temperatures aloft. Again, the key item on this potential will be the amount of dry air in the atmosphere and if that hinders strong to severe thunderstorm development.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are planned for Tuesday at 1000 AM EDT lasting through early evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely on Wednesday. This will be the last coordination message for Tuesday’s severe weather potential. The next coordination message on Wednesday’s severe weather potential will be posted by 1130 PM Tuesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box