Hurricane Earl Coordination Message #8

September 3, 2010 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Major Hurricane Earl Headed Toward Southeast New England. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings issued for portions of the region..
..Major Hurricane Earl Threatens Southern New England with the potential for sustained tropical storm force winds particularly in Southeast New England but much of Eastern New England could be affected with tropical storm force winds in gusts and the potential for a period of hurricane force winds particularly over portions of Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyeard and Nantucket Island. A further westward trend could bring hurricane force conditions as far north as Plymouth and as far west as Westport, Massachusetts..
..A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Hull, around Cape Cod to Westport Massachusetts including Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard Islands..
..A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from west of Westport Massachusetts to New Haven Connecticut including Block Island Rhode Island..
..A Tropical Storm Wind Warning is in effect for Northern Bristol and Western Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts..
..A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from north of Hull Massachusetts to the Mouth of the Merrimack River Massachusetts north to Eastport Maine..
..Track guidance is gradually coalesing between the 40 North/70 West benchmark and between Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Islands up through Cape Cod. Deviations in the forecast track could mean greater or lesser impact to Southern New England and there is still is up to 100 nautical mile error in the forecast track at this stage..
..All Emergency Management and Public Safety personnel, Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of major Hurricane Earl. People should review hurricane/tropical storm safety tips now as a precaution..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net along with WX4NHC, Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center activated at 4 PM Thursday Afternoon for Earl’s closest path to the Outer Banks and Eastern North Carolina, Eastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM ET Friday lasting through Saturday Morning based on the current track and intensity of Hurricane Earl. Massachusetts State EOC RACES and MEMA RACES Regional Office activation is slated to occur Friday Morning. Eastern Massachusetts ARES will be placed on stand-by starting at 7 AM ET Friday Morning lasting through 7 PM Saturday Evening..

Models are gradually coalesing on a solution putting Earl anywhere from around the 40 North/70 West Benchmark and then east of Cape Cod to a track over Cape Cod and between Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Islands. There remain some eastward and westward outliers but the general consensus of models is between those two areas. There remains a 100 nautical mile error which can still result in greater or lesser impact over the region. Any additional westward trends in the models or track will need to be monitored closely. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for portions of Southeast New England based on the latest projections.

The following is a rough estimation of impacts over the Tropical Storm Watch/Warning and Hurricane Warning areas based on the current track and intensity of the hurricane and its extremely large size. This could change based on hurricane intensity and track of the system:

Hurricane Warning Area (Plymouth Massachusetts through Westport Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard islands):

This region will see high-end sustained tropical storm force winds with hurricane force wind gusts. It is now looking more likely that the Outer Cape and particularly Nantucket Island would have the potential to also see sustained hurricane force winds and gusts pending the eventual track of Earl. Rainfall will be very heavy with the potential for a swath of 2-4″ rainfall with isolated higher amounts as high as 6″. Storm surge will be most prevelant over north and east facing beaches with a 2-4 foot storm surge. Locations in Provincetown and Wellfleet could see greater impact if the track is a bit closer and the storm surge may occur some time after storm passage depending on that track. Along the South Coast of Massachusetts, storm surge will be less of a threat due to the expected Northeast winds.

Hurricane Warning Area (Hull to Plymouth Massachusetts)
This area could see sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and possibly slightly higher gusts. The Hurricane Warning has been issued to guard against a more westward solution of Earl. If that were to verify, hurricane force conditions sustained or in gusts may occur but the current solution would keep most of that to the south and east of this region. Rainfall in this area is likely to be 2-4″ with isolated higher amounts of 6″ possible. A Storm Surge of 1-2 feet is possible in this area.

Tropical Storm Warning (West of Westport Massachusetts to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Block Island RI and points west covering South Central Rhode Island)
This area could see sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts up to 50-55 MPH particularly along the South Coast of Rhode Island and Block Island RI. A Storm Surge of 1-3 feet could occur particularly in north and east facing beach locations. Rainfall of 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts are possible in this area.

Tropical Storm Wind Warning (Northern Bristol and Western Plymouth Counties)

In this area, tropical storm force winds sustained at 30-40 MPH with gusts of 60 MPH are likely. Closer to the Cape Cod Canal, sustained winds of 40-50 MPH with gusts to 70 MPH or possibly hurricance force are likely. Rainfall of 2-4″ with isolated higher amount of up to 6″ are possible.

Tropical Storm Watch Area (Mouth of Merrimack River Massachusetts to Plymouth Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island including the Tropical Storm Inland Wind Watch for Northern Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties):

In this area, sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts of 40-50 MPH are possible along the immediate coast. Across the remainder of inland Eastern Massachusetts, winds will drop off significantly. Rainfall of 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts are possible but if a further west track were to materialize more wind could occur in portions of Eastern Massachusetts. It is noted that portions of Worcester County and Northeast Connecticut could see 1-2″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts.

There remains several factors that will further determine the track and intesnity of Major Hurricane Earl that are still being scrutinized by the weather models are as follows:

1.) The strength and location of the Great Lakes trough and its interaction with Hurricane Earl
The strength and location of the Great Lakes trough and its interaction with Hurricane Earl will be critical. If the trough’s location is further west or not amplifying and interacting with Hurricane Earl, this would allow a closer to the coast track and more direct impact. If it amplifies and can interact with Earl, it would result in a greater push to the east.

2.) The sharpness and locations of the turns Earl will make
Depending on the sharpness and locations of Earl turns will determine the interaction with the Great Lakes trough and his eventual movement. This will be especially true as Earl approaches the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Thursday Evening into Friday Morning and this will be a critical time in the track and impact of Hurricane Earl on Southern New England.

3.) Intensity of Hurricane Earl as it moves up the coast
The intensity of Hurricane Earl will now be controlled by eyewall replacement cycles and other shorter-term phenomenon that cannot be fully predicted. Earl has weakened a bit today but could expand in size depending on the evolution of the system under processes that are not very well understood. Unlike past hurricanes that have been much weaker as they approached New England, water temperatures are above normal and Earl is a very powerful and large hurricane. This is likely to result in greater impact from Earl then most tropical systems approaching New England because of its large size and intensity. In addition, the intensity of Earl may affect the movement of the system.

4.) Assymetry as it reaches our latitude and if Earl will be more symmetric than most New England type systems
The general rules of Hurricanes in New England are that the winds will shift more to the eastward side of the system with some winds but more heavy rain on the west side as the system becomes assymetric and does an extratropical transition. Comptuer models are indicating that will be the case here, however, Earl is a very intense hurricane and water temperatures off our coast are warmer than normal. This may allow Earl to keep more symmetry than normal and allow for more winds on the west side. This will need to be monitored with real-time satellite, radar and surface observations.

5.) Extratropical transition, where that occurs and how it affects the system
Given Earl is such a formidible tropical system, it is unlikely that Earl will start extratropical transition near us or it will start but the system will remain largely tropical. If it becomes more of a hybrid or starts the extratropical transition, this could also keep stronger winds west of the center. It is again something that will need to be monitored with real-time, satellite, radar and surface observations.

Swells and rip currents will become a very serious concern as Earl tracks closer to the region and this will be a problem extending through the Labor Day Holiday Weekend after Earl passes. There have been many times where offshore tropical systems have caused injuries or fatalities on the water from the surf and rip currents so folks swimming at area beaches over the next several days with the hot weather expected are advise to heed the advice of lifeguards and monitor NWS Taunton products for high surf advisory information. See link below for the the surf zone forecasts for more information and if High Surf Advisories are posted, that link will be posted and updated here:

NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus51.KBOX.html

All Emergency Management and Public Safety personnel, Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of major Hurricane Earl. People should now be reviewing their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions as a precaution in inland areas and as a requirement along the coast in the Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watch areas. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips and an updated Public Information Statement of Safety Tips as well as a Tropical Terminology Public Information Statement listed via the links below:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1009011537.nous41.html

The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net along with WX4NHC, Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center activated at 4 PM Thursday Afternoon for Earl’s closest path to the Outer Banks and Eastern North Carolina, Eastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula. These nets will likely activate again Friday for Earl’s closest path to New England. It is noted that the VoIP Hurricane Net will merge into one large command net with New England Echolink/IRLP operations as it approaches New England. Please see these web sites for information on the Hurricane Nets and the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, WX4NHC:

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

Voip Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

WX4NHC Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

From a spotting perspective, we will be looking for any and all reports per the SKYWARN reporting criteria. We’ll also be looking for lowest barometric pressure readings across Southeast New England. Also, pictures of damage and incidents as they occur in near real-time or shortly after release will be very helpful to media, emergency manamgement, the National Hurricane Center and the NWS Taunton Forecast Office. A reminder on SKYWARN Net frequencies for the region via the link below:

http://beta.wx1box.org/node/37

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM ET Friday lasting through Saturday Morning based on the current track and intensity of Hurricane Earl. Massachusetts State EOC RACES and MEMA RACES Regional Office activation is slated to occur Friday Morning. Eastern Massachusetts ARES will be placed on stand-by starting at 7 AM ET Friday Morning lasting through 7 PM Saturday Evening.

The latest NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Area Forecast Discussion and National Hurricane Center Advisory information on Earl are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Earl Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt32.KNHC.html

Hurricane Earl Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt42.KNHC.html

Hurricane Earl Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt22.KNHC.html

Hurricane Earl Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font12.KNHC.html

The final coordination message will likely be posted Friday Morning as we move to operations mode pending further computer model data on the track of Earl and significant updates to Earl’s status as a tropical system from an intensity perspective.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org