Blizzard/Storm Coordination Message #5 – Early Tuesday Morning 3/14/17-Early Wednesday Morning 3/15/17 Blizzard/Major Winter Storm Potential

March 13, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Potential Blizzard and Major Winter Storm for Southern New England Late Monday Night through Late Tuesday Night. Preparations for this potential blizzard and major winter storm should be completed late Monday Night/early Tuesday Morning..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County RI, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Northern and Central Middlesex and Essex Counties of Massachusetts for snow totals of 13-22″ with isolated higher amounts possible, blizzard conditions, thundersnow potential, strong to damaging winds of sustained of 20-35 MPH with gusts of 40-55 MPH with higher wind gusts of 55-60 MPH along coastal areas of Essex County Massachusetts. These winds will likely cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages in addition to the very high snowfall amounts..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 5 AM-3 PM EDT Tuesday for Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Bristol, Eastern Kent, Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island for 6-12″ of snow and a trace of ice, the potential for near blizzard and near whiteout conditions with thundersnow potential and sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts of 55-65 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. In this portion of the Winter Storm Warning area, a mix with or change to sleet or rain may occur before the storm ends. The Winter Storm Warning is in effect for Western Kent County RI from 5 AM-3 PM EDT Tuesday for 10-16″ of snow with sustained winds of 20-30 MPH and wind gusts of 40-50 MPH. The wet snow and strong winds will have the potential to cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered to numerous power outages. This has the potential to be a high impact event for this area given the weight of wet snow and the strong to damaging wind potential..
..A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts and Southeast Providence County Rhode Island for 10-16″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible, the potential for near blizzard and near whiteout conditions including thundersnow and winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts in the 55-65 MPH range and isolated higher wind gusts possible. The Blizzard Watch for this area has been cancelled. The strong to damaging winds and a potentially wetter and heavier snow will have the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. This still has the potential to be a higher impact event for this region..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now is in effect for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for 2-4″ of snow with higher amounts possible depending on storm track and a trace of ice. In this area, the amount of snow is the most uncertain and will be more track dependent and depending on track and could result in a significant variation in what actual snowfall will be for this area. There is the potential for a brief period of near blizzard and near whiteout conditions and winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts 60-65 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts possible. The combination of heavy snow that would be a wet snow and strong to damaging winds will have the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. If snow amounts increase, it will be heavy and wet and would increase the threat for power outages and tree and wire damage..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Nantucket for 5 AM-Noon EDT for 2-4″ of snow. Snow will change to rain in this area by Noon time..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 8 AM-6 PM Tuesday for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island through Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 30-45 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts are also possible. These strong to damaging winds coupled with any wet snowfall will have the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect from 11 AM-3 PM Tuesday for Eastern Essex, Eastern Plymouth, Cape Cod, Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket Island for widespread minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding at the time of the early Tuesday Afternoon high tide cycle. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Suffolk and Eastern Norfolk County of Massachusetts from 11 AM-3 PM Tuesday for pockets of minor coastal flooding. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Washington County RI from 1000 AM-100 PM Tuesday for minor coastal flooding at the midday high tide cycle..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect for late Tuesday Night for Cape Cod particularly north facing areas and expanded to Eastern Essex County for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of that high tide cycle..
..Upgrades to warnings and advisories and other adjustments are likely as we get closer to this potential blizzard/major winter storm..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will occur with this potential blizzard potentially as early as 5-6 AM Tuesday and will last through late Tuesday Night..
..ARES, RACES and Emergency Communications groups should closely monitor the progress of this potential blizzard and seek advice from their local leadership on any potential activation as they get closer to the potential blizzard event..
..Pictures from this major storm event will likely be helpful for situational awareness and disaster intelligence purposes. They can be sent via our WX1BOX social media Facebook and Twitter feeds, as a reply to this message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter or Ham Operator for sending the pictures unless otherwise noted..

The headlines of this coordination message depict the potential for a major winter storm/blizzard for the region based on the current weather model projections. In this update, Winter Storm Warnings and portions of the Blizzard Watch were updated to Blizzard Warnings where stated above and in southern areas of the Blizzard Watch, it was cancelled based on whether all blizzard requirements can be met but in either case, the potential for high impact event is likely given strong to damaging wind potential and the weight of what is expected to be a wet snow in southern parts of the area. Most details are falling into place with the exception of snowfall amounts and precip type over Cape Cod and the Islands and how much mixing occurs around and southeast of the I-95 corridor. The key items to be sorted as we watch the potential for this major winter storm/blizzard include:

1.) Exact storm track is key. There was a wobble west in the models to between the Cape Cod Canal and the Outer Cape/Nantucket with the low center. More wobbles can be expected in the model track. This means the possibility of a bit more mixing and dry slotting in Southeast New England and has led to the current headline changes. Timing the onset of the snow, its expected to start from 4-8 AM Tuesday from southwest to northeast and rapidly become heavy with snowfall rates of 2-4″ per hour expected for several hours. The greatest uncertainty with these track differences is whether or not the Cape and Islands region remains all snow or if there is any mix or change to rain. That will make the difference in the current forecasted 2-4″ of snow for that area or much higher or much lower amounts. For now, a warmer solution is for that area is depicted. For the rest of the region, a widespread 6-12″ is expected southeast of the I-95 corridor with 10-16″ of snow near the I-95 corridor and just to the north of it. A swath of 13-22″ is likely with a isolated higher amounts are likely in the rest of the NWS Taunton Coverage area.
2.) The strong to damaging wind potential of this system is high. The consistency of the snow and how wet it is and whether a zone of heavy wet snow sets up will determine the extent of any tree and wire damage in the region. This will bear close watching and the greatest risk is over Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and up through the Boston area and into the North Shore. While snow amounts have been lowered slightly in this area, the concern for a heavier, wetter snow has if anything increased since the last update and will bear close watching.
3.) How widespread the blizzard conditions will be and this looks to be widespread across northeast and western and Central Massachusetts through Northern Connecticut and into Northwest Rhode Island. Depending on storm track, this could affect areas a bit to the southeast of the current Blizzard Warning area as well or remain where currently depicted.
4.) Extent of coastal flooding and if the strongest winds coincide with either high tide cycle. This will impact the level of coastal flooding along north and east facing areas. There could also be some impact to the high tide cycle late Tuesday Night. Coastal Flood Warnings/Advisories have been issued along much of East Coastal Massachusetts and Washington County RI for the early Tuesday Afternoon high tide cycle with a Coastal Flood Watch for Cape Cod for the late Tuesday Night high tide cycle that has been expanded to Eastern Essex County Massachusetts.

People should prepare for this major storm similar to other past major winter storms for the region. Have plenty of batteries and battery powered equipment on hand and test out this equipment and any generator equipment. Make sure you have gas for your generator as well. If it turns out that you do not lose power in the storm, you will be better prepared for the next storm system.

Pictures from this major storm event will likely be helpful for situational awareness and disaster intelligence purposes. They can be sent via our WX1BOX social media Facebook and Twitter feeds, as a reply to this message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter or Ham Operator for sending the pictures unless otherwise noted.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will occur with this potential blizzard potentially as early as 5-6 AM Tuesday and will last through late Tuesday Night. ARES, RACES and Emergency Communications groups should closely monitor the progress of this potential blizzard and seek advice from their local leadership on any potential activation as they get closer to the potential blizzard event. This will likely be the last coordination message for this system unless a significant change to the situation occurs and time allows for an update as we shift into operations mode Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning Statement, High Wind Warning Statement, Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory/Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory/Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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