Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday 6/17/22 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible Friday Afternoon and Evening anytime between 12-6 PM across all of Southern New England with interior Southern New England the favored area of the region. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a Marginal Risk for severe weather though dropped the mention of an upgrade to slight risk..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening..
Severe weather is possible ahead of a cold front that will bring much cooler air into the region after the heat and humidity on Friday. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) Any cloud cover or residual shower and thunderstorm activity overnight/early morning and how that affects heating. Satellite imagery shows clearing across Western and Northern Massachusetts spreading its way south and east through the region which should allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) The mid-levels of the atmosphere will dry out some and if they dry out too much that could limit the coverage/intensity of strong to severe thunderstorms. At this time, its expected there will be sufficient moisture for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms given the strong shear in the atmosphere and clearing allowing for destabilization
3.) Timing of the cold front which is currently expected to be at reasonable time for peak heating and destabilization particularly for central and eastern portions of the marginal severe weather risk area.
4.) If key factors 1 an 2 line up to allow for greater instability and more moist mid-levels of the atmosphere, the severe weather potential would be more robust but current modeling has a more isolated to scattered nature to the strong to severe thunderstorm potential but this will be monitored through the day.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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