Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Sunday Afternoon & Evening 6/30/24 – Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across much of Southern New England Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with an isolated tornado a secondary risk..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has most of Southern New England in an Enhanced risk for severe weather for Sunday with a slight risk for areas of Southern New England not in Enhanced risk. SPC has issued a Mesoscale Convective Discussion indicating an 80% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern New England. Threat timeframe is slightly expanded to between 12-10 PM Sunday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely as the potential strong to severe thunderstorms traverse the region Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..
We will be posting updated post severe weather coordination messages on the prior severe weather events over the course of this weekend. We appreciate and thank all Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters for the reports, pictures and videos during those events and if there is more data available, please feel free to send it along to us.
Turning our attention to Sunday’s severe weather potential, the headlines depict the current thinking with the risk increasing of widespread pockets of straightline wind damage in addition to the other hazards mentioned in the headlines. SPC has indicated an 80% chance for severe thunderstorm watches as we go through the day today. The key factors to dictating the coverage and intensity include:
1.) Amount of heating and destabilization we receive ahead of a strong cold front. As of 945 AM Monday, satellite imagery shows clearing from west to east across the area with radar showing showers and thunderstorms in the South-Central New York/Northeast Pennsylvania area. Heating and destabilization should build across the region as expected and has likely built confidence in the severe weather potential resulting in the update to Enhanced risk for most of Southern New England.
2.) Shear profiles will be very strong and with the heating and destabilization looking to be as expected, this sets the stage for a more widespread severe weather event especially with widespread pockets of wind damage in the region.
3.) Cold frontal timing which remains in the ideal time range to maximize heating and destabilization.
4.) While the severe weather potential is expected to be more widespread, not every city or town will see damage and the cities and towns that see damage will likely be in pockets of the communities like most severe thunderstorm events that affect the region.
SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely as the potential strong to severe thunderstorms traverse the region Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the last coordination message unless a significant change to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1487.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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