Hello to all..

..A storm system today may cause minor flooding of small streams and urban areas later Tuesday Afternoon and tonight into Wednesday Morning..
..A Flood Watch is in effect from 2 PM Tuesday through Wednesday Morning for Southern New Hampshire and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampshire, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Western Norfolk, Northern Bristol and Western Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for around 1 inch of rainfall and snow melt potentially causing minor river and stream flooding and minor flooding of urban areas..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system today. Ops at NWS Taunton don’t appear necessary at this time but will be monitored during the storm. This will be the only coordination message on this storm event unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Strong Coastal Storm still expected to impact portions of Southern New England over a long period starting late tonight lasting through Friday Morning. High confidence in Strong to Damaging Winds, and several tidal cycles of coastal flooding as some of the primary threats. Heavy Wet Snow and accumulations of the wet snow and impact on trees and wires along with the strong to damaging winds still has high uncertainty and could change in future forecasts..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Thursday to 1 PM Friday for Worcester and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island for 4-8 inches of snow and the potential for wet snow and strong winds to cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Southern New Hampshire from 10 AM Thursday to 1 PM Friday for 4-6 inches of wet snow. The wet snow and strong winds may reault in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Southeast Providence, Kent, and Washington Counties of Rhode Island and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts from 7 AM Thursday to 1 PM Friday for 3-6″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible. The wet snow and strong winds may reault in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage..
..Areas outside of the Winter Weather Advisory/Winter Storm Warnings areas are currently expected to receive a coating to 2 inches of snow..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect through 7 AM Friday for Cape Cod and the Islands including Block Island Rhode Island for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. The high winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect through 7 AM Friday Morning for Windham County Connecticut, all of mainland Rhode Island, Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Southeast Middlesex, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50-55 MPH. The high winds will likely cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. If enough wet snow accumulation occurs, this could increase the amount of tree and wire damage to scattered pockets..
..A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect from 5 AM Thursday Morning to 10 AM Friday Morning for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for several successive high tide cycles of moderate to pockets of major coastal flooding across the coastal flood warning area..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect from 3 AM Thursday to 6 AM Friday for several high tide cycles of beach erosion and possibly minor coastal flooding for Block Island RI..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 6 AM Thursday Morning to cover the Thursday early morning high tide cycle and will last through at least late Thursday Night. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely be needed for the Friday Morning high tide cycle as well. Overnight operations Thursday Night may or may not be needed and will be evaluated as we get closer to this storm event..
..Wet snow/wind damage and coastal flood/coastal flood damage pictures and videos during this storm event can be sent as a reply to this email or to the email address pics@nsradio.org for sharing with emergency management and the media. Credit will be given to the spotter taking the pictures and video unless otherwise indicated..

The headlines of this coordination message have been updated and detail the threats on an upcoming large and major coastal storm expected to affect Southern New England starting late Wednesday Night and lasting through early Friday Morning. There remains higher uncertainty than normal at this time range concerning the snowfall amounts across Southern New England. The track of the storm appears more certain but factors on snowfall make it difficult to forecast snowfall ranges. The headlines above represent a slight reduction in snowfall amounts but that remains a low confidence forecast. While there is low confidence in the snowfall forecast, there continues to be very high confidence on the potential coastal flood threat for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the islands over multiple high tide cycles. The wind threat has also become a high confidence forecast with Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings posted as stated in the above headlines. Currently, the main uncertainties at present remain as follows:

1.) Position of the rain/snow line and amount of mixed preciptiation at the coastline. This could affect snowfall amounts and the extent of any tree and power line damage and power outages and where they occur. A closer storm track will push the heavier wet snow away from the coast with more of a wet snow/rain mix or more of a plain rain falling at the coast while a storm track further away from the coast puts coastal areas at more risk for heavier wet snow.

2.) Ability of snowfall to accumulate if heaviest precipitation occurs during the day Thursday. Higher sun angle and marginal temperatures may affect and lower accumulations or allow for heavier accumulations on trees, power lines, grassy areas but less on paved surfaces. Spotter reports will be critical during the storm event to determine the extent of snow accumulation.

Wet snow/wind damage and coastal flood/coastal flood damage pictures and videos during this storm event can be sent as a reply to this email or to the email address pics@nsradio.org for sharing with emergency management and the media. Credit will be given to the spotter taking the pictures and video unless otherwise indicated.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 6 AM Thursday Morning to cover the Thursday early morning high tide cycle and will last through at least late Thursday Night. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely be needed for the Friday Morning high tide cycle as well. Overnight operations Thursday Night may or may not be needed and will be evaluated as we get closer to this storm event.

This will likely be the last coordination message for this event. If time allows and it is required, an updated situation report on the storm will be posted. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Warning Statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and snowfall map:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Strong Coastal Storm still expected to impact portions of Southern New England over a long period starting late Wednesday Night lasting through Friday Morning. Heavy Wet Snow, Strong to Damaging Winds, and several tidal cycles of coastal flooding remain the primary threats..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from late Wednesday Night through Friday Morning for Northeast Connecticut, all of Rhode Island, Southern Worcester, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth, Suffolk and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8 inches of heavy wet snow with isolated higher amounts, wind gusts to 50-55 MPH with higher gusts possible at the coast and the potential for scattered tree and wire damage and power outages due to the combination of strong winds and heavy wet snow..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Thursday Morning to Friday Morning for Hillsborough County NH, Essex, Middlesex and Northern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8 inches of heavy wet snow with isolated higher amounts and wind gusts to 35-40 MPH which may result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages due to the combination of strong winds and heavy wet snow..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Marthas Vineyard (Dukes County), Nantucket and Block Island from 9 PN Wednesday Night through 7 AM Friday Morning. It is noted that Wind advisory criteria winds will be possible in portions of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island but that is covered under the Winter Storm Watch..
..A Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect from 5 AM Thursday Morning to 10 AM Friday Morning for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for several successive high tide cycles of moderate to pockets of major coastal flooding across the coastal flood warning area..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 3 AM Thursday to 6 AM Friday for several high tide cycles of beach erosion and possibly minor coastal flooding..
..There are still some higher than normal uncertainties at this time with the rain/snow line, amount of snowfall in the Winter Storm Watch areas and extent of heavy snowfall in northwest portions of the NWS Taunton coverage area including northwest portions of the Winter Storm Watch area. The wind and coastal flood forecasts are a high confidence forecast at the present time..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely be puhsed back to starting at 6 AM Thursday Morning to cover the Thursday early morning high tide cycle and lasting through at least late Thursday Night. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely be needed for the Friday Morning high tide cycle as well. Overnight operations Thursday Night may or may not be needed and will be evaluated as we get closer to this storm event..
..Wet snow/wind damage and coastal flood/coastal flood damage pictures and videos during this storm event can be sent as a reply to this email or to the email address pics@nsradio.org for sharing with emergency management and the media. Credit will be given to the spotter taking the pictures and video unless otherwise indicated..

The headlines of this coordination message have been updated and detail the threats on an upcoming large and major coastal storm expected to affect Southern New England starting late Wednesday Night and lasting through early Friday Morning. There is somewhat higher uncertainty than normal at this time range. Overnight, model runs have been slightly further offshore with this major storm system which will affect precipitation amounts particularly in western and northwest locations of Southern New England. It appears Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island will bear the greatest impacts from this storm with Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island likely having the highest storm impacts in terms of precipitation. There is very high confidence now on the potential coastal flood threat for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the islands over multiple high tide cycles. The wind threat has also become a high confidence forecast with East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island having the strongest winds though Wind Advisory criteria winds will likely occur in other parts of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts. Also, some slightly stronger winds greater than 55 MPH wind gusts could occur in parts of Southeast New England. Currently, the main uncertainties at present are as follows:

1.) Position of the rain/snow line and amount of mixed preciptiation at the coastline. This could affect snowfall amounts and the extent of any tree and power line damage and power outages and where they occur. A closer storm track will push the heavier wet snow away from the coast with more of a wet snow/rain mix or more of a plain rain falling at the coast while a storm track further away from the coast puts coastal areas at more risk for heavier wet snow.

2.) Ability of snowfall to accumulate if heaviest precipitation occurs during the day Thursday. Higher sun angle and marginal temperatures may affect and lower accumulations or allow for heavier accumulations on trees, power lines, grassy areas but less on paved surfaces. Spotter reports will be critical during the storm event to determine the extent of snow accumulation.

Wet snow/wind damage and coastal flood/coastal flood damage pictures and videos during this storm event can be sent as a reply to this email or to the email address pics@nsradio.org for sharing with emergency management and the media. Credit will be given to the spotter taking the pictures and video unless otherwise indicated.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely be puhsed back to starting at 6 AM Thursday Morning to cover the Thursday early morning high tide cycle and lasting through at least late Thursday Night. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely be needed for the Friday Morning high tide cycle as well. Overnight operations Thursday Night may or may not be needed and will be evaluated as we get closer to this storm event.

The next coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Warning Statement, Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and snowfall map:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..Strong Coastal Storm will impact portions of Southern New England over a long period starting late Wednesday Night lasting through Friday Morning. Heavy Wet Snow, Strong to Damaging Winds, and several tidal cycles of coastal flooding are the primary threats..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from late Wednesday Night through Friday Morning for Northeast Connecticut, all of Rhode Island, Southern Worcester, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth, Suffolk and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts for 6-10 inches of heavy wet snow, wind gusts to 50-55 MPH with higher gusts possible at the coast and the potential for scattered tree and wire damage and power outages due to the combination of strong winds and heavy wet snow..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Thursday Morning to Friday Morning for Hillsborough County NH, Essex, Middlesex and Northern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for 6-10 inches of heavy wet snow and wind gusts to 35-40 MPH which may result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages due to the combination of strong winds and heavy wet snow..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect from Thursday Morning to Friday Morning for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for several successive high tide cycles of moderate to possibly even pockets of major coastal flooding across the coastal flood watch area..
..There are still some higher than normal uncertainties at this time with the rain/snow line, extent of even higher winds greater than 55 MPH (offshore versus over land areas), amount of snowfall in the Winter Storm Watch areas and extent of heavy snowfall in northwest portions of the NWS Taunton coverage area including northwest portions of the Winter Storm Watch area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are expected starting 8 AM Thursday Morning and lasting through at least late Thursday Night. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely be needed for the Friday Morning high tide cycle as well. Overnight operations Thursday Night may or may not be needed and will be evaluated as we get closer to this storm event..

The headlines of this coordination message detail the threats on an upcoming large and major coastal storm expected to affect Southern New England starting late Wednesday Night and lasting through early Friday Morning. There is somewhat higher uncertainty than normal at this time range though model solutions are getting into better agreement on storm impacts on Southern New England in the last several runs and hopefully the trend toward consensus will continue leading to higher confidence. The uncertainties at present are as follows:

1.) Position of the rain/snow line and amount of mixed preciptiation at the coastline. This could affect snowfall amounts and the extent of any tree and power line damage and power outages and where they occur. A closer storm track will push the heavier wet snow away from the coast with more of a wet snow/rain mix or more of a plain rain falling at the coast while a storm track further away from the coast puts coastal areas at more risk for heavier wet snow.

2.) Extent of strongest winds. Currently, winds are expected to be as high as 50-55 MPH at the coastline with 40-50 MPH gusts inland. A slightly closer storm track could bring stronger winds further inland and stronger wind speeds at the coast while a storm track further away may keep the strongest winds at the coast.

3.) Extent of coastal flooding impact will be greater with a closer storm track but at minimum several tide cycles of minor to moderate coastal flooding are likely with potentially greater impacts with a closer storm track. With the current storm track widespread moderate to pockets of major coastal flooding in East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands appears to be the likely scenario.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are expected starting 8 AM Thursday Morning and lasting through at least late Thursday Night. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely be needed for the Friday Morning high tide cycle as well. Overnight operations Thursday Night may or may not be needed and will be evaluated as we get closer to this storm event. The next coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and snowfall map:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..Winter Storm remains on track for late Tuesday Night through early Thursday Morning..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 1 AM Wednesday to 10 AM Thursday for Cheshire and Western and Central Hillsborough Counties of New Hampshire for 4-8 inches with isolated higher amounts possible in the higher terrain. The snow is expected to be heavy and wet and may result in scattered tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from late Tuesday Night through Thursday Morning for Western Franklin, Western Hampshire, Western Hampden, and Northern Worcester Counties for 4-8 Inches of snow along with around one-tenth inch of ice with isolated higher amounts of snow possible in the higher terrain. The snow is expected to be a heavy wet snow that may cause scattered tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 1 AM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday for Eastern Franklin and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachuetts and A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Eastern Hillsborough County New Hampshire for 2-4″ of snow and a trace of ice. In this area, snow will mix with and change to sleet, freezing rain and then rain later in the day Wednesday..
..Areas outside of the Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory will see a brief wintry mix changing over to rain with little to no accumulation..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 7-11 AM Wednesday for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for minor coastal flooding of shore roads. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 11 AM to 2 PM Wednesday for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for minor coastal flooding of shore roads..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 600 AM Wednesday through Early Evening..

Another winter storm remains on track to affect Southern New England late Tuesday Night through early Thursday Morning. The biggest update in this coordination message is an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for Northern Worcester, Western Franklin, Western Hampshire, and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts at the higher elevations. The snow will be heavy and wet causing the potential for scattered tree and wire damage. A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Eastern Hillsborough County NH, Eastern Franklin and Northern Middlesx Counties of Massachusetts for 2-4″ of snow and a light ice accumulation. Minor coastal flooding of shore roads are expected on the south and east coasts of Massachusetts and Rhode Island for the Wednesday morning/midday high tide and a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for this area. Winds along the coast are expected to stay just below Wind Advisory criteria with sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH possible. This will be monitored in case stronger winds aloft have a better chance of making it down to the surface.

The greatest uncertainty with this storm system remains temperatures over the region and how far and how quickly a warm front moves over the region and what kind of warming takes place at different levels of the atmosphere to determine how much snow/ice occurs over the given area and how much wind affects coastal areas. The headlines of this coordination message capture the current potential and will be monitored during the storm event.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 600 AM lasting through early evening. This will be the last coordination message for this storm system. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, and Snowfall Map:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..Winter Storm for late Tuesday Night through early Thursday Morning remains on track..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 1 AM Wednesday to 10 AM Thursday for Cheshire and Western and Central Hillsborough Counties of New Hampshire for 4-8 inches of snow except up to a foot of snow above 1200 feet. The snow is expected to be heavy and wet and may result in scattered tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from late Tuesday Night through Thursday Morning for Eastern Hillsborough County New Hampshire, Franklin, Hampshire, Western Hampden, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties for 3-6 Inches of snow except higher amounts of 6-10 inches of snow are possible at elevations above 1200 feet with light ice accumulations possible. The snow is expected to be a heavy wet snow that may cause scattered tree and wire damage and power outages..
..Areas just outside of the Winter Storm Watch may see some wintry mixed precipitation before a changeover to rain. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for late tonight across portions of Northern Connecticut and Central and Western Massachusetts..
..There is a slight chance for minor coastal flooding during the Wednesday high tide along the east and south coasts of Massachusetts..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remains possible to likely for Wednesday..

Another winter storm remains on track to affect Southern New England late Tuesday Night through early Thursday Morning. The biggest update in this coordination message is an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for Cheshire and Western-Central Hillsborough Counties NH for 4-8″ of snow in the lower elevations and up to a foot of snow at elevations above 1200 feet. The snow will be heavy and wet causing the potential for scattered tree and wire damage. Winter Storm Watches remain in place for the same areas as last night. Winter Weather Advisories may be issued for other parts of Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut later today.

The greatest uncertainty with this storm system remains temperatures over the region and how far and how quickly a warm front moves over the region and what kind of warming takes place at different levels of the atmosphere. The headlines of this coordination message capture the current potential but that potential could change as we get closer to this event. Also, there is some potential for strong winds at the coastline but this will also depend on the warming that takes place at the coastline. There is also a slight chance for minor coastal flooding on the south and east coasts of Massachusetts and Rhode Island for the Wednesday midday high tide.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely for Wednesday. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM Tuesday Evening for this storm threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, and Snowfall Map:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..Another Winter Storm expected late Tuesday Night through early Thursday Morning..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from late Tuesday Night through Thursday Morning for Franklin, Hampshire, Western Hampden, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties for 4-8 Inches of snow with isolated higher amounts up to 10 inches especially at elevations above 1500 feet in Western Franklin County Massachusetts and some level of ice accumulation. The snow is expected to be a heavy wet snow that may cause scattered tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from late Tuesday Night through Thursday Morning for Southern New Hampshire for 4-8 Inches of snow except 8-12 inches of snow at elevations above 1200 feet. The snow will be heavy and wet and this may cause scattered tree and wire damage and power outages..
..Areas just outside of the Winter Storm Watch may see some wintry mixed precipitation before a changeover to rain..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely for Wednesday..

Another winter storm will affect Southern New England late Tuesday Night through early Thursday Morning. The greatest uncertainty with this storm system will be temperatures over the region and how far and how quickly a warm front moves over the region and what kind of warming takes place at different levels of the atmosphere. The headlines of this coordination message capture the current potential but that potential could change as we get closer to this event. Also, there is some potential for strong winds at the coastline but this will also depend on the warming that takes place at the coastline.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely for Wednesday. Another coordination message will be posted by 830 AM Tuesday Morning for this storm threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, and Snowfall Map:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..Impacts from Coastal Storm remains lowered and models in better agreement on this scenario. Highest amounts of snowfall in the NWS Taunton coverage area will be over Southeast New Hampshire and possibly right along the Massachusetts/New Hampshire border..
..A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence and Western Kent Counties of Rhode Island through 7 AM Sunday for snow and sleet accumulation of up to 1″ along with a trace of ice accumulation from a light wintry mix..
..A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester, Norfolk, Middlesex, Essex and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts from 300 PM Saturday Afternoon through Midnight Sunday Night (meaning covering all day Sunday) for 2-4″ of snow along with a trace of ice as much of this advisory area is likely to see mixed precipitation chaging over to light snow..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Southern New Hampshire from 9 PM this evening to Midnight Sunday Night (meaning covering all of Sunday) for 4-6″ of snow. The threat for pockets of scatterd tree and wire damage and scattered power outages is lower due to lower snowfall amounts but will still be monitored..
..Outside of the Winter Weather Advisory areas snowfall of under 2″ and little if any ice accumulation is currently expected..
..The coastal flood threat has been reduced to minor splashover and wind is not expected to be a factor for this storm system presuming the weaker and further offshore storm track verifies. A coastal flood statement has been issued covering the splashover threat..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely be utilized for this entire event. Ops at NWS Taunton would be possible Sunday if greater impacts unfolded for the region but that is becoming less likely..
..Checking with NWS Forecasters as of 445 PM Saturday Evening, the web-spotter form remains down but may work as the storm situation unfolds. For now, using Twitter/Facebook via the WX1BOX address, a reply to this message as well as any Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets that self-activate and the echolink *NEW-ENG* conference node: 9123/IRLP 9123 system for reports will be appreciated. If time allows, an update will be posted regarding the webform during the storm event..

Daytime model runs continue the theme of a further offshore and weaker solution with less of a model spread now lending confidence to a more offshore solution. Based on this data, snowfall amounts have been lowered over Massachusetts, Northwest Rhode Island, and Conencticut where a light wintry mix is expected as outlined in the above headlines. The heaviest snowfall amounts are currently expected in Southern New Hampshire and could affect areas of Massachusetts near the ma/nh border as we get into Sunday. At this time, the threat for tree and wire damage and power outages across the area due to wet snow or ice has lessned considerably but will be monitored for portions of Southern New Hampshire where snow amounts will be higher but the snow may be of a drier consistancy.

The coastal flood threat has been reduced to minor splashover and wind is not expected to be a factor for this storm system presuming the weaker and further offshore storm track verifies. A coastal flood statement has been issued covering the splashover threat.

Checking with NWS Forecasters as of 445 PM Saturday Evening, the web-spotter form remains down but may work as the storm situation unfolds. For now, using Twitter/Facebook via the WX1BOX address, a reply to this message as well as any Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets that self-activate and the echolink *NEW-ENG* conference node: 9123/IRLP 9123 system for reports will be appreciated. If time allows, an update will be posted regarding the webform during the storm event.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely be utilized for this entire event. Ops at NWS Taunton would be possible Sunday if greater impacts unfolded for the region but that is becoming less likely. This will be the last coordination message on this event unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. A shortened coordination message may be issued if time allows concerning the web based reporting form. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and snowfall map:

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Impacts from Coastal Storm lowered due to further south and weaker system but overall confidence is lower than normal and will need to be monitored closely as the storm unfolds..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence and Western Kent Counties of Rhode Island for 1-4″ of snow along with a trace of ice accumulation from a light wintry mix that is now expected..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester, Norfolk, Middlesex, and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts from 300 PM Saturday Afternoon through Midnight Sunday Night (meaning covering all day Sunday) for 2-4″ of snow in the lower terrain locations and 3-6″ of snow in higher terrain locations. In areas along and south of the Mass Turnpike that under this advisory, a period of rain/snow mix is possible before changing back to all snow Sunday Morning. The threat for pockets of scattered tree and wire damage and scattered power outages is lower due to lower snowfall amounts but will still be monitored..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Southern New Hampshire from 9 PM this evening to Midnight Sunday Night (meaning covering all of Sunday) for 4-6″ of snow. The threat for pockets of scatterd tree and wire damage and scattered power outages is lower due to lower snowfall amounts but will still be monitored..
..Outside of the Winter Weather Advisory areas snowfall of under 2″ and little if any ice accumulation is currently expected but if temperatures are slightly colder than expected that could change and will be monitored..
..The coastal flood threat has been reduced to minor splashover and wind is not expected to be a factor for this storm system presuming the weaker and further offshore storm track verifies..
..At this time, SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely be utilized for this event especially for Saturday Night and possibly into Sunday. Overnight Ops do not appear to be needed. Ops at NWS Taunton would be possible Sunday if greater impacts unfolded for the region..
..Checking with NWS Forecasters as of 900 AM Saturday Morning, the web-spotter form remains down with the same issue where the user thinks data is entered successfully but forecasters cannot see the data. The form will likely be down for the duration of this storm. Using Twitter/Facebook via the WX1BOX address, a reply to this message as well as any Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets that self-activate and the echolink *NEW-ENG* conference node: 9123/IRLP 9123 system for reports will be appreciated..

Overnight model runs continue the theme of a further offshore and weaker solution though the model spread remains high. Two models have a slightly closer and stronger solution while another reliable short range model keeps the system further offshore with even less impact. The current snowfall amounts and advisories as outlined above is a blend of these solutions.

The key items of uncertainty that remain are as follows:

1.) The amount of precipitation that occurs in areas cold enough for snow or mostly snow as the predominant precipitation.

2.) Areas further south have more precipitation forecasted but it is unclear how much will fall as rain or a mix of rain and snow. This will affect snowfall amounts in this area. Its possible other areas of southeast New England could get more snow if enough cold air is available given more precipitation is expected but it remains difficult to predict given marginal temperatures.

3.) Given that snowfall amounts have been reduced, it would appear that the threat for scattered tree and wire damage and power outages is reduced but if enough wet snow fell over the area some wet snow damage could occur and this will still need to be monitored.

Checking with NWS Forecasters as of 900 AM Saturday Morning, the web-spotter form remains down with the same issue where the user thinks data is entered successfully but forecasters cannot see the data. The form will likely be down for the duration of this storm. Using Twitter/Facebook via the WX1BOX address, a reply to this message as well as any Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets that self-activate and the echolink *NEW-ENG* conference node: 9123/IRLP 9123 system for reports will be appreciated.

At this time, SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely be utilized for this event especially for Saturday Night and possibly into Sunday. Overnight Ops do not appear to be needed. Ops at NWS Taunton would be possible Sunday if greater impacts unfolded for the region. Another coordination message will be issued by 900 PM Saturday Evening given the greater uncertainty of this event. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and snowfall map:

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Greater uncertainty develops as model runs through the day today now depicting a further south and weaker storm solution with a wider gap in track guidance for the region. This leads to a lower confidence forecast for the region..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Southern New Hampshire, and Essex, Middlesex, Worcester, Franklin, Hampshire, and Hampden Counties and has been expanded to cover Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County in Rhode Island. A widespread 3-7″ snow accumulation is now expected with higher terrian locations seeing pockets of 6-10″ of snowfall. The snow will be heavy and wet and may cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. It is noted that these snowfall amounts could be adjusted further as we get closer to the event based on future model runs..
..Coastal Flooding is now expected to be more minor in nature for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. Winds are now expected to fall short of Wind Advisory criteria. This will be monitored in future model runs..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely late Saturday Night and especially Sunday..

Over the course of the day today, model runs have been weaker with the storm system to affect the region this weekend and the track has also shifted further south. This leads to greater uncertainty in snowfall amounts and storm impacts for the region. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Evening for Southern New Hampshire and Massachusetts north of the turnpike and has been expanded to cover Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County in Rhode Island since a further south storm track may allow colder air to affect areas south and east of the Massachusetts turnpike. It is noted that other areas of Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island will need to be monitored in terms of snowfall depending on the track and intensity of the storm as well as the amount of cold air in this region. Coastal Flooding is now expected to be more minor in nature for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. Winds are now expected to fall short of Wind Advisory criteria. This will be monitored in future model runs as well.

The key items of uncertainty that have developed are as follows:

1.) Interior locations of the Winter Storm Watch area may experience less snowfall as less precipitation is being seen in the models for this area. It is unclear if this trend will hold or reverse in future model runs.

2.) Areas further south have more precipitation forecasted but it is unclear how much will fall as rain or a mix of rain and snow. This will affect snowfall amounts in this area. Winter Storm Watches were extended into Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County in Rhode Island due to the shift south of this storm system. Its possible other areas of southeast New England could get more snow if enough cold air is available given more precipitation is expected but it remains difficult to predict given marginal temperatures.

3.) Given that this is likely to be a wet snow, scattered tree and wire damage and power outages could develop but enough wet snow would have to fall over a given area and its difficult to know what area could see the heaviest of the wet snow versus a drier snow consistency. Future model runs will hopefully provide clarity here.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely late Saturday Night and especially Sunday. Exact timeframe and duration is difficult to know at present. Another coordination message will be posted by Noon Saturday. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and snowfall map:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more